Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Review of May 2026

Petra Bošková, Dominika Dragúňová, Terézia Hlačinová, Ján Jakub Kolár, Igor Píš, Nikol Privitšová

 

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Albania
Albania Enters the Final Phase of European Union Accession Negotiations

Albania has reached a significant milestone in its long journey toward European Union membership, officially entering the concluding phase of EU accession negotiations. The announcement was made during the eighth EU-Albania Intergovernmental Conference held in Brussels, where European officials confirmed that Albania had successfully met the interim benchmarks under Cluster 1, known as “Fundamentals.” This cluster covers some of the most important areas of reforms, including the rule of law, judicial independence, democratic governance, anti-corruption policies, and the protection of fundamental rights.

The achievement represents one of the most important moments in Albania’s modern political history and reflects years of institutional reforms aimed at aligning the country with EU standards. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos praised Albania’s progress, describing it as the result of more than a decade of difficult but necessary reforms. In a public statement shared after the conference, Kos emphasised that Albania has now “officially transitioned into the concluding phase of EU accession negotiations,” marking a new stage focused on closing negotiation chapters and preparing the country for eventual membership.

The European Union has repeatedly highlighted Albania as one of the most committed reformers in the Western Balkan region. Over recent years, the Albanian government has introduced major changes to its judicial system, strengthened anti-corruption institutions, and improved cooperation with European agencies. These reforms were considered essential to advancing the accession process. EU representatives acknowledged that Albania had demonstrated consistent political commitment despite internal political tensions and economic challenges.

The development has also been viewed as an encouraging signal for the broader Western Balkans region, where several countries continue to pursue EU membership. European leaders believe that enlargement remains an important strategic investment in regional stability, democratic development, and economic integration. Albania’s progress could therefore motivate neighbouring countries to accelerate their own reform agendas.

Despite the positive momentum, EU officials stressed that important challenges still remain. Albania must continue implementing reforms related to judicial transparency, organised crime prevention, public administration efficiency, and media freedom. The concluding phase of negotiations is expected to involve intensive monitoring and further alignment with EU legislation and standards.

Albanian authorities have expressed optimism that negotiations could be completed by 2027 or 2028 if reforms continue at the current pace. While full membership still requires unanimous approval from all EU member states, the latest progress demonstrates that Albania is closer than ever to achieving its long-standing European ambition. For many Albanians, the transition into the final stage of accession negotiations represents not only a diplomatic success but also a symbol of the country’s broader transformation toward a more democratic and European future.

Sources:
  • https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-foreign-affairs/press-releases/albania-makes-further-progress-on-eu-accession/
  • https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2026/05/27/kos-albania-has-officially-transitioned-into-the-concluding-phase-of-eu-accession-negotiations/
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Leadership Transition at BiH’s OHR Comes Amid Deepening Domestic and External Pressures

Following his final address before the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), High Representative (HR) for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) Christian Schmidt announced on May 11 that he intends to step down from his position and requested that the process of appointing his successor be initiated.

The post Schmidt held from mid-2021, under the auspices of the Office of High Representative (OHR), was established after the end of the Bosnian War as Annex 10 of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) to support the implementation of its civilian aspects. With its powers extended in 1997 by its international overseeing and financing body, the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), the OHR has been empowered with so-called Bonn Powers, granting it significant authority. Effectively, the OHR can: (i) propose, amend, or annul binding laws if the fractured state government fails to act; (ii) dismiss or sanction public officials, judges, and civil servants who obstruct the DPA or the state’s integrity; and (iii) alter entity and state constitutions and electoral laws. The upcoming leadership transition at such a pivotal institution, therefore, warrants close scrutiny.

In his final report, the outgoing HR cautioned that BiH stands “at a crossroads between stability and stagnation” and highlighted the necessity of preserving institutions in line with the DPA, restoring the full functionality of state bodies, and resolving the issue of state property in the upcoming period. Moreover, Schmidt stated that the leadership of BiH’s entity Republika Srpska (RSP) continues to challenge the territorial integrity of BiH and warned that the paralysis of state institutions supports claims that BiH is not a functioning state. In that context, he highlighted the refusal of RSP authorities to appoint judges to the Constitutional Court of BiH, as well as their rejection of the court’s decisions.

Clearly, Schmidt’s successor, whoever it may be, will inherit a country marked by a tense political environment and significant internal friction. Endogenous issues are, however, not the sole drivers of concern surrounding the impending change of guards. The OHR itself and, by extension, the post of HR are highly contested and desired arenas for various international and domestic actors seeking to shape the institution’s future direction. Apart from RSP’s glaring resentment toward the OHR, the United States, for instance, has for months been exerting pressure and demanding that Schmidt resign as soon as possible. Washington purportedly seeks to appoint a successor who is easier to manage, with an alleged US company linked to Donald Trump being interested in building a gas pipeline in BiH. Additionally, Russia called for the immediate abolition of the OHR, describing the institution as “privatised” and the main source of instability in BiH, while China emphasised that Schmidt had not been legally appointed because his nomination was never confirmed by the UNSC. Finally, from the perspective increasingly advocated within European policy circles, these competing external pressures highlight the need for the European Union to assume a more autonomous and principled leadership role in BiH to safeguard democratic institutions and regional stability.

Overall, Schmidt’s planned resignation comes at a particularly sensitive moment for BiH. His successor is likely to inherit a politically fragmented environment characterised by institutional fragility, contested state authority, and growing geopolitical competition, making the leadership transition at the OHR a development with potentially significant implications for both BiH and the wider Western Balkans.

Sources:
  • Sahadžić, M. (2022) “The Bonn Powers in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Between a rock and a hard place”, Constitution Net. Online: https://constitutionnet.org/news/bonn-powers-bosnia-and-herzegovina-between-rock-and-hard-place
  • EWB (2026) “Christian Schmidt resigns as High Representative in BiH”, European Western Balkans. Online: https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2026/05/11/christian-schmidt-resigns-as-high-representative-in-bih/
  • EWB (2026) “Schmidt warns of Bosnia’s silent deconstruction”, European Western Balkans. Online: https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2026/05/13/schmidt-warns-of-bosnias-silent-deconstruction/
  • OHR (2026) “69th Report of the High Representative for Implementation of the Peace Agreement on Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Secretary-General of the UN”, Office of the High Representative. Online: https://www.ohr.int/69th-report-of-the-high-representative-for-implementation-of-the-peace-agreement-on-bosnia-and-herzegovina-to-the-secretary-general-of-the-un- Bassuener, K. (2026) “It’s Time ‘Europe+’ Asserted Leadership and Challenged the US in Bosnia”, Balkan Insight. Online: https://balkaninsight.com/2026/05/18/its-time-europe-asserted-leadership-and-challenged-the-us-in-bosnia/bi/

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Montenegro
Stricter EU Accession Treaty for Montenegro

Montenegro has officially entered the final stages of its journey toward European Union membership, with a target join date set for 2028. In May 2026, EU ambassadors approved the formation of an Ad Hoc Working Party to begin drafting the legal fine print of the country’s accession treaty. While Podgorica has provisionally closed 14 of the 33 negotiating chapters, the rule of law remains the most significant problem to overcome.

Experts indicate that Montenegro’s treaty will follow the structural precedent of Croatia’s 2011 agreement but will be considerably stricter, reflecting a shift from a “trust-based” to a “resilience-based” enlargement model. To prevent democratic backsliding, which is a concern often described as avoiding a “Hungary 2.0”, the treaty is expected to include “new safeguard mechanisms” and explicit reversibility clauses. These measures would allow the EU to pause or roll back membership benefits if democratic standards decline after accession.

Furthermore, the treaty will likely include “transitional periods” in areas such as the free movement of workers. In Montenegro’s case, these may be tied to economic convergence indicators to lower the risk of “brain drain” in critical sectors like healthcare. Adherence to the rule of law will also be linked to the EU’s budgetary conditionality mechanism, enabling the Commission to freeze funding if democratic values are breached. As President Jakov Milatović recently noted following discussions with NATO leadership, maintaining regional stability and credible international commitments remains vital as the country pushes toward the finish line.

Sources:
Kosovo
Kosovo Risks Losing Funds from the EU Growth Plan

Due to the current political deadlock, which halted various reforms, Kosovo faces the risk of losing millions from the EU Growth Plan. The Growth Plan is believed to be, so far, the most ambitious package for the region, with an overall value of 6 billion EUR. Among others, funding aims to help Western Balkan countries with promoting reforms on the rule of law, education, digital and green transformation and economic growth.

Approximately 90 million EUR may be frozen, should Kosovo not implement 13 reforms from the Reform Agenda until June 30. The country ratified the document on February 13 after a delay caused by former political instability and repeated elections. This delay initially froze more than 800 million EUR, the overall sum designated for Kosovo from the Growth Plan. This sum includes around 253 million in grants and 629 million in loans.

However, as the upcoming elections are scheduled for June 7, it is unlikely that the reform will be adopted within the timeline. According to Prishtina Insight, the process of counting votes, certifying results, and forming new institutions is expected to continue beyond the EU’s reporting deadline.

European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, commented on the situation, emphasising that the inability to adopt key reforms due to ongoing political instability is further delaying Kosovo’s EU accession process.

“After the election, political leaders need to form institutions and elect a president of Kosovo in a spirit of compromise… When we talk about the EU enlargement process, from a broader perspective, what we see today in the enlargement process is progress and, for the first time since the last enlargement in 2013, when Croatia became an EU member, there are realistic prospects that we will get new member states in the coming years”, the European Commissioner for Enlargement noted.

 

Sources:

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Serbia
The Butcher of Bosnia Is Dying, but the Question Is Where

The 84-year-old Ratko Mladic, a former commander of the Bosnian Serb Army, who has spent the last fifteen years in a UN detention facility in The Hague, filed an urgent motion for humanitarian release in April 2026. He claims to be in the final stages of an irreversible decline, and the court has ordered an independent medical assessment. His lawyers say he recently suffered an acute neurological episode during a video call with his son, which required an emergency hospitalisation.

The question of his humanitarian release raises questions beyond his personal health and the way he will spend his final days. Mladic led the Army of Republika Srpska during the Bosnian War between 1992 and 1995, which was one of the bloodiest conflicts in Europe since the Second World War. Under his command, Bosnian Serb forces terrorised the civilian population of Sarajevo and, in July 1995, killed more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys taken prisoner in the eastern town of Srebrenica. This massacre remains the only atrocity on European soil since the Holocaust to have been legally classified as genocide, which Mladic oversaw personally. Survivors later testified that he walked through Srebrenica as families were being separated, telling women their men would be safe.

He evaded capture for sixteen years before Serbian authorities found him in 2011. His trial formally opened at The Hague in May 2012, and in 2017 the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia convicted him on ten counts: one of genocide, five of crimes against humanity, and four of violations of the laws and customs of war. He lost his appeal in June 2021 and has been in The Hague ever since.

This is not the first time his lawyers have argued that keeping him detained amounts to inhumanity. In June 2025, they filed a similar motion where they said he had months to live. The court rejected it, accepting that his condition was precarious but maintaining that he was receiving high-quality care in the Netherlands. The new motion goes further and argues that the detention facility lacks the infrastructure for terminal care, such as round-the-clock vital sign monitoring and regular cardiac checks. What they believe he now needs is hospice care outside the prison system, ideally with his family in Serbia.

The IRMCT has yet to rule on the request. The case reopens a question that international justice has never fully resolved: what does accountability look like when the person being held accountable is dying? For the survivors of Srebrenica, many of whom are also ageing, and many of whom never saw a full reckoning, the answer might be straightforward. Ultimately, whether Mladic dies in a UN cell or a Serbian family home is a moral question, and the court’s answer will say something about what the international community thinks it owes the victims.

Sources:
  • https://balkaninsight.com/2026/05/01/ratko-mladic-approaching-end-of-life-requests-release-from-detention/btj
  • https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3e283g80n4o
  • https://balkaninsight.com/2025/07/29/hague-court-refuses-early-release-for-terminally-ill-ratko-mladic/btj/
  • https://balkaninsight.com/2021/06/08/un-court-confirms-ratko-mladics-life-sentence-for-genocide/btj/
North Macedonia
Bulgaria Reiterates EU Conditions for North Macedonia and Urges De-escalation with Sofia

Bulgaria has reaffirmed its position regarding North Macedonia’s progress toward European Union membership, stressing the importance of adhering to previously agreed commitments. The Bulgarian Foreign Ministry called on Skopje to focus on fulfilling these obligations rather than escalating tensions between the two countries.

Sofia emphasised that the 2022 agreement framework remains a key reference point in the EU accession process. According to Bulgarian officials, this framework reflects a broader European consensus and cannot be altered unilaterally.

The Foreign Ministry also noted that advancement in the EU integration process is closely tied to the implementation of required reforms and compliance with existing agreements. Bulgaria therefore urges North Macedonia to prioritise constructive steps and institutional progress over political disputes.

At the same time, Bulgarian officials reiterated their support for the European perspective of Western Balkan countries and stated that Sofia remains committed to a cooperative approach. However, they also highlighted a strong domestic consensus that further progress in accession talks is conditional on full adherence to the 2022 terms.

Tensions between the two countries have persisted over time, largely centred on historical interpretations and identity-related issues. Despite this, Bulgaria continues to advocate for dialogue within the EU framework and for stability in the region.

Sources:
  • Novinite – “Bulgaria’s FM to Skopje: Stop Seeking Conflict With Sofia and Fulfil EU Commitments”https://www.novinite.com/articles/238751/Bulgaria%E2%80%99s+FM+to+Skopje%3A+Stop+Seeking+Conflict+With+Sofia+and+Fulfill+EU+Commitments

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