IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of January 2025

Petra Bošková, Anna Gúliková

UKRAINE

Photo: Efrem Lukatsky/AP

Russian Retaliatory Strikes Hit Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia Amid Rising Tensions

On January 18, 2025, Russian missile strikes targeted central Kyiv, leaving three dead and injuring three others. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defense, the attack was a retaliatory response to Ukraine’s use of US-supplied ATACMS missiles in Russia’s Belgorod region earlier in the week.

The assault caused significant damage to residential buildings, a metro station, and other civilian infrastructure in Kyiv’s Shevchenkivskyi district. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has condemned the strikes, calling for intensified international pressure on Russia to deter further aggression.

On the same day, Russian missile strikes also devastated parts of Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine. Ten people were injured, and two remain unaccounted for. Ukraine’s Air Force reported intercepting 24 of the 39 drones and two of the four missiles launched by Russian forces during the attacks.

These events come at a critical juncture in the ongoing conflict, as both Russia and Ukraine seek to gain strategic advantages ahead of Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration for his second term as the US President. The new administration’s stance on the war is expected to influence the geopolitical landscape significantly.

The strikes in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia underscore the escalating nature of the conflict, with civilian casualties mounting and vital infrastructure repeatedly targeted. Ukrainian officials have emphasised the need for continued Western military and economic support to counter Russia’s aggression.

As winter intensifies, concerns over the humanitarian toll of the war are growing. Both Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia have reported power outages, disrupted transportation, and strained emergency services, further compounding the hardships faced by civilians. Meanwhile, international observers warn that these retaliatory attacks could escalate into a broader conflict, posing a challenge to diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the crisis.

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Ukraine targets Russian power and oil facilities with its drone attacks

During the past month, Ukraine has been more focused on Russian targets, which are linked with the production of nuclear power and oil refineries. These facilities maintain and further support Russian offensive and defensive activities beyond its borders, mainly as they improve Russia’s economic position. Ukrainian army often uses small drones, which are harder to detect for the Russian defence system and while Russian sources do not inform about the range of damages of the drone attacks, they briefed that during the most significant drone attack in January 2025, the Ukrainians used 121 drones on 13 regions in the RF, even though the real numbers may differ.

The main target of the drone attacks was Ryazan Oil Refinery, which is the biggest facility of its kind in the region, and its operation was put to a halt due to the damage caused by Ukrainian drones. This refinery is located approximately 500 km north of the border, and activities targeting it have been ongoing since last year. Ukraine’s high representatives do believe that this oil facility provides fuel for the military equipment, which is then used in the war. Therefore, the reasoning for targeting them is proved internationally valid. However, some Russian reports state that some of the drone attacks were focused on the civilian infrastructure just as well, but do not present solid evidence for this argument.

Ukraine admits it has been strategically targeting its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as it plays such an important role within its economy and, therefore, is supporting the military industry itself. The Ukrainian drone attacks’ effect is visible on their ability to cross the Russian borders and travel to the targets that are at a significant distance from them. Thus, they are posing an ongoing threat to the Russian infrastructure and undermining the Russian defence system within its recognised borders. These operations slow down Russian capabilities to advance its systems and modernisation of the army as well as providing the moving sources for the industry itself.

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MOLDOVA

 Photo: Ministry of Defense of Moldova

Transnistria Faces Energy Crisis Amid Russian Gas Cutoff and EU Criticism

The Moldovan separatist region of Transnistria has been experiencing significant energy shortages since January 1, 2025, following Russia’s Gazprom halting gas supplies due to an alleged $709 million debt. This cessation has led to widespread power outages, leaving over 51,000 households without heating and hot water.

The European Union has condemned Russia’s actions, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas accusing Moscow of using “gas as a weapon” in a “hybrid war” against Moldova. Kallas reaffirmed the EU’s unwavering solidarity with Moldova, emphasising the bloc’s support in maintaining the country’s resilience and energy connectivity.

The crisis intensified after Ukraine terminated a major gas transit agreement with Russia on January 1, 2025, ceasing the flow of Russian natural gas through Ukrainian pipelines to Europe. This decision, driven by national security concerns amid ongoing conflict, has significantly impacted countries reliant on Russian gas, including Moldova.

Moldovan PM Dorin Recean has accused Russia of deliberately creating instability to influence upcoming parliamentary elections, asserting that Moscow aims to install a pro-Russian government in Moldova. Despite the energy challenges, Moldova has managed to secure alternative power imports from neighbouring Romania, mitigating the impact on regions outside Transnistria.

Residents in Transnistria are facing severe hardships, resorting to burning wood and using electric heaters, leading to rolling blackouts as the power grid struggles to cope. The region’s gas reserves are projected to deplete within a month, raising concerns about a worsening humanitarian situation.

The European Union continues to monitor the situation closely, expressing concern over Russia’s use of energy supplies as leverage and emphasising the importance of cooperation between Transnistria’s separatist government and Chișinău to resolve the crisis.

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Western Countries Support the Moldovan Economy in Its Energy and Military financing

The Moldovan economic situation has been facing many struggles due to the gas crisis in the Transnistria region. Therefore, Chisinau and its foreign partners are focused on financing the energy industry more than ever wanting to avoid a loss of power in the region and a possible consequent humanitarian crisis. Moldova has also been gaining support from its Western allies implying further improving conditions between Brussels and Chisinau. Cooperation can be visible on multiple platforms, but apart from the energy section, the focus is mainly on the military one and its participants have not only been countries, but international organisations such as the EU and OSCE as well. While it opens possibilities for Moldova in the future integration into the Western circles, it could also be taken as an EU strategy to strengthen its Eastern border.

It is in the best interest of the EU as a whole to build stronger borders between Moldova and Ukraine (and Ukrainian Northern and Eastern borders), as the second mentioned has been involved in a full-scale war with Russia since 2022. That is why the OSCE held a training course for the trainers of border patrols in Chisinau for both of these countries in January 2025. The cause for this type of training is the number of people crossing the border who are running from Ukraine due to war, and that opens the borders even for the individuals who could pose some kind of danger to the society or the EU itself.

The military assistance is also working between particular states and Moldova. Sweden has been highly invested in building Moldovan military infrastructure as the Russian influence grows within Eastern Europe, posing a threat to the security of the EU. The cooperation has resulted in a deal between the two about the provision of the AT4 anti-tank grenade launchers for Moldova. Stockholm pledged to deepen collaboration in the defence sector to limit Russia’s disinformation and counter hybrid threats for Chisinau.

Other countries, such as Italy and Denmark, have focused on supporting Moldova financially to avoid an energy crisis and lower the dependence of Transnistria and partially also Moldova on Russia and its natural gas. Italian support is to expand the installation of smart meters that can help households control their electricity use, which can loosen the pressure on the Moldovan financial situation and prevent another energy crisis. Danish finances are mainly to be used in the matter of the current energy crisis, as Copenhagen does not approve of the Russian use of energy as a geopolitical weapon in the sovereign states. Based on these factors, it is obvious that the West is open to Moldovan integration into its structure.



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