Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Review of March 2026

Petra Bošková,Henrieta Vengrínová, Ema Valachová, Dominika Dragúňová, Lea Bellušová, Igor Píš, Terézia Hlačinová

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Albania
When Safety Meets Censorship: Albania’s TikTok Ban

Last year, in March 2025, a one-year ban on TikTok came into force in Albania, raising serious concerns about freedom of expression, censorship, and constitutional rights. The platform was banned by the Albanian Government for a period of one year. The Government justified this decision as an attempt to protect citizens, especially children and teenagers, from harmful online content. This move was further prompted by the tragic death of a 14-year-old boy, whose case was linked to online bullying and a conflict between students. TikTok itself, however, stated that the conflict had not originated on its platform.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and his Government argued that the ban was necessary because TikTok had become a platform where violence, hatred, and aggressive behaviour were spreading. As a result, access to the app was blocked across the country. Nevertheless, many people criticised the decision as too radical and politically suspicious, especially because it came shortly before important parliamentary elections. Opposition parties, journalists, and digital rights activists argued that TikTok had become an important platform for political communication, public debate, and youth engagement, and that banning it could silence certain opinions and voices.

However, the ban did not last for the full year. TikTok was made available again in Albania in February 2026, nearly two months before its official end. The ban became the subject of a major legal dispute in the country. On March 11, 2026, Albania’s Constitutional Court ruled that the Government’s ban on TikTok was unconstitutional. According to the court, the Government failed to prove sufficiently that a nationwide block of the platform was the only necessary and effective solution to the issue it wanted to address. The court also concluded that the ban restricted the civil rights of freedom of expression and freedom of the press. The TikTok case in Albania, therefore, became not only a debate about child safety but also a broader discussion about democracy, digital rights, and the limits of state power.

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Bosnia and Herzegovina
The Connection of Energy Security and the Rule of Law

The survival of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as a sovereign actor depends on its ability to transition from a raw material exporter to a modern state governed by the rule of law. While reports from the Sarajevo Times warn of a looming loss of energy independence, this decline is not merely a technical failure; it is a direct consequence of political fragmentation. If BiH shifts to being a net importer of electricity, it will lose its last strategic pillar of economic autonomy.

The risk to energy is tied to the pressure from António Costa and Denis Bećirović. Their talks show that without unified laws and a single market, the country cannot get the money it needs to fix its power grid. This is where politics hits a wall: progress is being blocked by leaders who prefer to divide people rather than fix the system. A critical turning point is the recent conviction of Milorad Dodik for anti-LGBT discrimination. In a think-tank analysis, this is not an isolated legal case but a symptom of a broader resistance to European norms. If BiH fails to guarantee fundamental rights and judicial independence, it will also fail to implement EU energy regulations. The conclusion is clear: the inability to curb discrimination and strengthen the rule of law leads directly to capital flight, inevitably pushing the country into a state of energy and political dependence on external actors.

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Montenegro
Security Sector Reform: Amendments to Internal Affairs and National Security Agency

On March 9,  2026, the Parliament of Montenegro adopted a controversial suite of security laws, including amendments to the Law on Internal Affairs and a new Law on the National Security Agency. Although the Government presented these changes as a part of the European Integration process and an essential step towards EU alignment, opposition parties, civil society and even European officials expressed serious concerns regarding the rule of law and Montenegro´s EU accession path. Political analyst Zlatko Vujović raised an issue by stating that these rapid legislative changes, while formally linked to the European agenda, are often used to push through provisions that do not actually align with EU standards.

The revised framework centralises police recruitment under the Interior Ministry’s jurisdiction, using a commission to oversee the selection process. This shift gives the Minister direct control over hiring criteria and personnel. Furthermore, these new rules also change how officers are disciplined, making it easier to remove them from their rank or dismiss them for “security reasons”. These decisions are made by a special commission, which is chosen by the Minister and operates in secret. Moreover, under this new process, the National Security Agency is not involved, and the accused officers are not told why they are being investigated or given any chance to defend themselves against the claims.

Mentioned changes were adopted on March 6, after hours of deep debates, which resulted in political division, in which the opposition accused the Government of attempting to expand political influence over the security sector. The ruling party insisted that this framework was prepared in consultation with the European Commission to align with the GDPR and personal data protection standards. However, the European Commission recently assessed that these provisions are still not fully aligned with the EU acquis. The resulting political division led the opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) to withdraw from parliamentary committees, accusing the Government of attempting to expand political influence over the security sector and creating a “party army” instead of an independent police force.

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Kosovo
Kosovo’s Failed Attempt to Elect a New President Pushes it Towards a Possible Snap Election

 After an unsuccessful attempt to elect a new head of state, Kosovo is once again on the brink of a snap parliamentary election – its third in just one year. At the beginning of March, Kosovar MPs met to vote for a new president. However, the opposition blocked the voting by not being present. Therefore, the required quorum was not met, and the voting could not take place.

Opposition leaders declared that as long as the ruling party Vetevendosje does not propose a candidate that would be acceptable for both sides, they will refuse to reach any consensus. This refusal points to a deeper political deadlock rooted in the Kosovar Constitution. It imposes the condition of at least two candidates running in the election. This year, both nominees were backed by Vetevendosje, since it is the only party capable of securing the 30 MP signatures needed to formally propose a candidate. In other words, the opposition faced two options – endorse Vetevendosje’s candidate or overcome its internal disagreement and propose a joint candidate. It did neither.

As a result of the failed vote, President Vjosa Osmani, whose term is slowly coming to an end, dissolved the Parliament. However, this decision has been lately overturned by the Constitutional Court, which described the dissolution as “not having any legal effect“. Instead, the court granted MPs an additional 34 days to elect a new president in order to avoid new snap elections.

Kosovo last went to the polls in December 2025, when Vetevendosje gained only shy of a majority by securing 57 out of 120 seats. The elections came after more than a year-long political stalemate, marked by unsuccessful coalition negotiations.

If the Parliament fails to elect a new head of state within 34 days, Kosovo will head to another early election. Osmani’s term ends in April. Although she wishes to continue, Vetevendosje, which supported her the last time, has not nominated Osmani again.

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North Macedonia
Political Consolidation Amid Rule-of-Law Concerns and Economic Optimism

In North Macedonia, developments on the domestic political scene are underway that could significantly influence the next elections. The ethnic Albanian alliance VLEN is close to transforming from a four-party coalition into a single political party. The last of the four parties, Alternativa, has approved the unification, bringing the process into a crucial phase.

This unification could strengthen VLEN’s position within the Government of Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and consolidate its standing against its main rival, the opposition party Democratic Union for Integration (DUI).

VLEN was formed ahead of the 2024 elections as an alternative to the long-dominant DUI. Although it received fewer votes, it became part of the governing coalition. The alliance has faced internal tensions, yet in the municipal elections, it managed to secure significant support in larger cities.

It remains unclear who will lead the newly unified party or when the process will be formally completed. According to VLEN representatives, the priority is to build stable foundations for the new political structure.

As regards the rule of law, one year after the tragic fire at the nightclub in Kočani, North Macedonia, in which 63 predominantly young people lost their lives, justice remains out of reach. Court proceedings have been moving very slowly, and the families of the victims are still waiting for verdicts and accountability. The trial only began in November 2025 and involves 35 defendants and three institutions, including the club owner, former mayors, inspectors and state officials. The tragedy exposed deep systemic failures, corruption and long-term neglect of safety regulations.

On the sad occasion of the first anniversary, a memorial commemoration was held in Kočani, while the families of the victims once again called for justice and accountability from both the state and the individuals involved. The tragedy has become a symbol of corruption and institutional failure in North Macedonia, and even after a year, no verdicts have yet been delivered.

On the other hand, the economic performance was also praised by the Prime Minister himself, who is very satisfied with Q1. Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski said that the implementation of capital investments in the first quarter of 2026 represents more than 30 per cent and in the transport sector, more than 50 per cent. He also noted that this is perhaps the most dynamic implementation of capital investments in history, and that in the transport sector, more than 50 per cent of what was planned has been implemented. They intend to continue the work to date.

The Council of the National Bank reviewed the latest economic indicators at its regular meeting and assessed that the country’s macroeconomic situation remains stable for the time being and in line with expectations and the latest forecasts, but will continue to closely monitor the external environment and potential risks arising from global and regional developments to maintain macroeconomic stability. Risks remain elevated due to uncertainty regarding the intensity and duration of the conflict in the Middle East. Annual inflation has been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2026, reaching 2.9% in February, as expected, amid a stronger slowdown in core prices. Nevertheless, inflation is expected to increase in the coming period.

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Serbia
The Erosion of SNS Dominance

The local elections held across ten Serbian municipalities on March 29, 2026, resulted in a technical sweep for the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), yet revealed a significant erosion of its political dominance. While President Aleksandar Vučić celebrated a “10-0” victory, comparative analyses show the ruling coalition lost support in eight out of the ten municipalities, with declines exceeding 20% in nearly all areas.

Election day was labelled by observers as “terror against citizens”. The independent organisation CRTA reported numerous irregularities, including vote manipulation, vote-buying, and compromised ballot secrecy. More alarmingly, the process was defined by open violence. Masked groups armed with sticks and axes were seen attacking citizens, journalists, and observers in towns like Bor, Kula, and Bajina Bašta. Reports described bloodied participants and hospitalised reporters, while police were often seen as unprepared or unwilling to protect citizens.

Despite the “powerful political machinery” deployed against the electorate, many SNS victories were decided by thin margins, sometimes by only a few hundred votes. The rise of student lists and a more determined opposition suggests the SNS’s “invincibility” is fading. Following the polls, tensions remained high as police raided the Belgrade headquarters of the People’s Movement of Serbia (NPS), seizing electronics and restricting the movement of party members. Analysts interpret these results as a sign that the local level is “awakening,” with increased resistance to manipulation signalling a potential turning point for future national elections.

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