IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of April 2025

Petra Bošková, Anna Gúliková, Vanesa Opšenáková

UKRAINE

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​​Zelenskyy and Trump Meet for the First Time After the February Incident

During Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome on April 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held several meetings, with the most attention-grabbing being an unscheduled brief meeting with US President Donald Trump in St. Peter’s Basilica, the first time they had met since the February incident at the White House. The US described the meeting as “productive”, but Trump still stood by his statements that Ukraine should accept territorial concessions, and subsequently commented that he thought Zelenskyy was probably ready to give up Crimea. His Ukrainian counterpart, however, has repeatedly stressed that Crimea is and will remain Ukrainian territory. In this context, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said that Ukraine was aware that it would have to make concessions as part of a peace agreement, although Trump’s proposal would essentially be a capitulation for Ukraine.

In addition, after the meeting, Trump criticised Putin for ceasefire violations, particularly attacks on civilians, and suggested that he was losing confidence in him to try to end the war, pointing out Putin’s promise of openness to peace talks without specific pre-determined conditions, during a meeting with US peace envoy Steve Witkoff.

At the Vatican, Zelenskyy also held talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who stressed that she will stand by Ukraine until it achieves a just peace, and they also discussed Ukraine’s progress in the EU accession process, the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, and the strengthening of defence in the framework of ReArm Europe. Zelenskyy also received support from French President Emmanuel Macron, who expressed disagreement with Trump’s statements that foresee Crimea remaining under Russia’s control as part of a peace deal. Ukraine continues to state that negotiations will only be possible on the basis of an unconditional ceasefire and especially not at the expense of Ukrainian territory.



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Deal between the US and Ukraine is following through after mutual disagreements

After battling a couple of months during which the relations between the US and Ukraine were unstable and the help from the US was uncertain, countries have reached a deal which is promising a complex future. With the new second administration of Donald Trump, Washington’s stance towards Kyiv became cold and much more distant compared to Biden’s administration. The deal, which first came up in the first month of Trump’s presidency, but was slowed down by the disagreements between him and the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was supposed to compensate for the US support for Ukraine during the past 3 years of the full-scale war caused by the Russian invasion.

Based on the previous standing of Trump’s Office, it has become apparent that he would like to approach Ukraine as an equally capable partner without any real recognition of the actual terms of the conflict with Russia. However, the final version of this agreement is supposedly much more “friendly” towards Ukraine than it was suggested beforehand. The minerals deal mainly sets the stage for a long-term relationship between the two sovereign states, even though it does not guarantee any great American profits within the next years of Trump’s administration. This goes against Trump’s previous rhetoric, which constantly undermined Zelensky’s position as the president of Ukraine and threatened to stop all of the help coming from the US, while showing a far tougher position on the side of the US regarding the Russian stance than during the past few weeks.

The sources mentioned that the previous versions of this minerals deal have been much less beneficial for Ukraine than the version officially signed by both Kyiv and Washington. Also, based on the statement of one of the Ukrainian representatives, the signed agreement does not include a requirement of Ukraine “paying back” the US for the already delivered aid, and so further pressures Moscow to a ceasefire and potential peace agreement without Ukraine losing its territory. Ukraine is supposed to get new military assistance from the US, which is meant to set up an investment fund available for Kyiv, while not threatening its future accession into the EU. On the other hand, the US should gain along the Ukrainian minerals, oil and gas as well, but these raw materials will remain owned by Ukraine, although giving Washington joint access.



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MOLDOVA

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EU Strengthens Moldova’s Defence through the European Peace Facility

Back in February 2025, two Iranian Shahed drones exploded in Moldova after a Russian attack on the Ukrainian port of Reni in the Odessa region, and in response, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian embassy in Chisinau and condemned the violation of its airspace. At the time, the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, said via Platform X, that the incident had endangered the lives of Moldovans and was proof that Russia had no borders. A similar intrusion into airspace occurred in Romania, which dispatched two F-16 fighter jets in response.

The European Union, also based on this incident, has allocated 60 million EUR for the year 2025 through the European Peace Facility to ensure Moldova’s security, with European Council President Antonio Costa saying during a visit to Chisinau that Moldova is the biggest beneficiary after Ukraine through this framework. Most recently, however, the Council has taken further assistance measures, approving a military aid package worth 40 million EUR in early April, the significance of which was that it was the first time that so-called lethal aid had been provided for the purchase of short-range air defence systems. The funds were also allocated for non-lethal aid with the purchase of over 30 mobile tactical vehicles and the integration of the air defence system.

On April 30, however, a seventh tranche of support was subsequently received through the European Peace Facility, worth 20 million EUR. Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and President of the Foreign Affairs Council, said that the EU is Moldova’s most important partner in the area of defence and these investments should ensure stability in the region. This will bring the total support under the European Peace Facility to 197 million EUR, which Moldova has been receiving since 2021.



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Growing chances of separating Moldova’s EU accession from Ukraine’s

Moldova and Ukraine joined the EU accession talks together in June 2024 after they demonstrated their commitment towards following the requirements of the EU negotiations process to show that they are prepared to become members of the European Union. Both countries were granted a membership candidate status in 2022 at the same time few months after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, and so far, they have been following the path towards the EU more or less together. However, Hungary blocked the opening of the first negotiation chapters with Kyiv, but it has not shown any resistance towards the process and then followed the accession of Chisinau.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos admitted in her interview at the end of April that Brussels cannot rule out “decoupling” of Moldova and Ukraine’s processes, so that Chisinau’s accession could proceed, as there is no member state that would be against starting to open the first cluster of negotiation chapters. Due to the accession system of the EU, all EU enlargement decisions have to be unanimously made and the Hungary’s veto is slowing the process down not only for Ukraine, but also for Moldova and it has happened before that the paths of 2 countries have been separated as one of them was blocked from stepping towards the process (for example – case of Albania and North Macedonia).

For Moldova, the chances are that if there were no resistance, it could become a member state by the end of this decade, as Chisinau seems to improve in terms of belonging to the community of European countries and having democratic values as the highest priority. Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated that her country could wrap up EU accession talks by the end of 2027, while it would also depend on upcoming parliamentary elections, which should decide whether Moldova remains on its pro-European pathway. Although Moldova and Ukraine entered the accession talks together, if Chisinau wants to achieve its strategic goal and eliminate the geopolitical risks, it may continue its negotiations with the EU without Kyiv.



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