Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Review June 2025

Petra Bošková

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Albania
Brussels Warns Albania: Key Reforms Must Come Before EU Talks Advance

On June 18, a leaked internal note from the Council of the European Union raised serious concerns about Albania’s stalled reforms in key areas such as judicial independence, anti-corruption efforts, and public procurement. Without visible progress, the EU warns, accession negotiations cannot move forward.

The document, referred to as a non-paper—a term used for unofficial internal communications—was shared with several media outlets, including BIRN. It focuses on the so-called “Fundamentals cluster,” which includes justice sector reform, procurement transparency, and anti-corruption measures. This cluster is essential for Albania’s overall advancement in the EU accession process.

While the judiciary is seen as more resilient than in the past, the paper highlights increasing political interference, particularly from senior government officials. It cites recent public criticism by Prime Minister Edi Rama following the arrest of Tirana’s Socialist mayor Erion Veliaj on corruption charges. The arrest triggered an unusually strong response from political leaders, which Brussels views as undue pressure on independent institutions, including the Special Anti-Corruption Court (SPAK).

The non-paper also voices alarm over a proposed legislative amendment that would give the prime minister the power to directly negotiate service contracts in areas deemed of “strategic interest” for three years. According to the document, such a move could breach EU standards and challenge the principle of transparent public procurement.

In addition to concerns about the justice system and procurement laws, the EU highlights the need for robust media reforms. The paper calls for measures to reduce media concentration, improve editorial independence, ensure transparency of media ownership and financing, and regulate state advertising practices.

The message from Brussels is clear: unless Albania delivers tangible reforms in these fundamental areas, it will not be able to close any chapters in the negotiation process. “Progress on the Fundamentals cluster will define the pace of accession talks,” the document warns. “No individual chapter can be closed until this objective is fulfilled.”

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Bosnia and Herzegovina
Controversy Flares as Republika Srpska Revives Plans for Backup Police Unit

The government of Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, has reignited debate by approving legislative changes that would enable the creation of a police reserve force—a move critics say echoes deeply troubling chapters of the country’s wartime past.

During an expedited session on June 23, entity officials passed amendments to laws governing policing and internal affairs. The changes would allow authorities to mobilise additional police personnel during crises such as natural disasters.

Interior Minister Siniša Karan defended the move, arguing that Republika Srpska lacks the manpower to respond to emergencies like floods and wildfires. “This is a legally defined reserve force. It’s not a paramilitary unit,” Karan told reporters, attempting to allay public concerns.

Despite his assurances, the proposal has drawn swift scrutiny due to its similarity to a shelved 2019 initiative that was abandoned under international and domestic pressure. That earlier attempt was met with fierce opposition from victims’ associations and Western diplomats, who pointed to the role of reservist police in war crimes during the 1992–1995 Bosnian War.

Under the new draft, the reserve force would be formed through open recruitment and deployed at the discretion of the Interior Minister, based on recommendations from the police leadership. Once activated, reservists would function under the same legal framework as full-time police officers.

The move has stirred political tensions across Bosnia and Herzegovina. Ramo Isak, Interior Minister of the Bosniak-Croat Federation entity, warned that if Republika Srpska proceeds with the plan, the Federation would be forced to establish its own equivalent force. A similar standoff emerged in 2019, when both entities considered building parallel reserve units. Republika Srpska eventually dropped the idea and instead formed a gendarmerie-style police unit with advanced tactical capabilities.

Opposition voices within Republika Srpska have been sharply critical. Igor Crnadak, vice-president of the Party of Democratic Progress, questioned the rationale behind reviving such a proposal. “These terms—territorial defence, reserve police—carry heavy historical baggage in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Crnadak said, referring to the period of civil war.

The amendments are not yet final and must still pass a vote in the National Assembly of Republika Srpska before they can be enacted.

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Montenegro
Montenegro Greenlights Military Contribution to EU’s Ukraine Support Efforts

On June 12, Montenegro’s parliament authorised the deployment of a military contingent to join a European Union-led support mission for Ukraine, marking the country’s first such contribution since Russia’s invasion began.

In Thursday’s vote, 49 lawmakers in the 81-seat assembly backed the proposal, while most others abstained or were not present.

Defence Minister Dragan Krapovic clarified during parliamentary discussions that Montenegrin troops would only serve in non-combat roles and would not set foot in Ukraine.

“Let there be no ambiguity – not a single Montenegrin soldier will be operating on Ukrainian territory,” Krapovic assured. He added that involvement in such missions should not be politicised and emphasised that some EU member states had also opted out without criticism.

Reflecting on his own political evolution, Krapovic—previously sceptical of NATO—acknowledged he had changed his view. “Today, I recognise the advantages of being part of the alliance,” he said.

The parliamentary session also featured sharp commentary from opposition MP Danijel Zivkovic of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), who noted the current governing coalition’s past opposition to NATO.

“Back when Montenegro joined NATO, the overwhelming majority of this ruling bloc resisted the move. Now, you’re implementing DPS’s vision. And that’s a positive shift,” Zivkovic remarked.

Interestingly, members of the formerly pro-Russian coalition, For the Future of Montenegro, largely backed the motion despite skipping the parliamentary debate.

The EU Military Assistance Mission (EUMAM), launched in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is designed to enhance the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces through training conducted on EU territory. It aims to support Ukraine’s defence of its sovereignty and internationally recognised borders.

 

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Kosovo
Kosovo Faces Deadline to Resolve Political Gridlock After Court Ruling

Kosovo’s outgoing Prime Minister Albin Kurti has invited leaders of all political parties to a high-level meeting in an attempt to resolve a months-long parliamentary impasse, after the Constitutional Court ruled that the Assembly must be constituted within 30 days.

The long-running deadlock has seen lawmakers fail 37 times to elect a new speaker and officially inaugurate the new parliament, following elections held in February. A scheduled session on June 27—intended to be the 38th attempt—was once again postponed.

The Constitutional Court’s decision on June 26 marked a turning point. It ordered parliamentarians to meet their constitutional obligation to form the Assembly, including the election of a speaker and deputy speakers, within a month.

Kurti responded on June 27 by announcing on Facebook that he had formally invited all party leaders to meet on Saturday, June 28, in a renewed effort to reach consensus. “This is another opportunity to fulfil our duty to the citizens and the constitution,” he stated.

Despite winning the largest share of seats, Kurti’s Vetevendosje party has repeatedly failed to secure enough support to install its candidate for speaker, outgoing Justice Minister Albulena Haxhiu. Opposition parties have consistently blocked her appointment, and Kurti has shown little willingness to compromise.

In a recent move to resolve the stalemate, Vetevendosje proposed a secret ballot for the speaker vote. Although Haxhiu has pledged to withdraw her candidacy if she fails to secure a majority of 61 votes in such a vote, other parties opposed the idea.

The opposition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) submitted the case to the Constitutional Court in May, arguing the delay was unconstitutional. AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj welcomed Thursday’s ruling as a step toward resolving the institutional paralysis.

The Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), another key opposition party, also welcomed the decision. Party leader Lumir Abdixhiku said the court had confirmed that the previous approach violated democratic norms. “We’ve lost dozens of sessions due to an unconstitutional imposition. Now we expect the largest group to move forward following the court’s decision,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, civic activists gathered outside the parliament on June 27, staging a symbolic protest demanding an end to the political deadlock.

The next parliamentary session is scheduled for July 1, where parties are expected to resume discussions on how to move forward under the court-imposed deadline.

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Serbia
Widespread Civil Disobedience in Serbia as Protests Escalate Over Arrests

Serbia is experiencing a wave of civil unrest after the arrest of eight individuals accused of attempting to overthrow the government, triggering days of protest and roadblocks across the country.

In Belgrade and other cities, demonstrators engaged in a tense standoff with police, setting up barricades that authorities repeatedly dismantled – only to see them quickly rebuilt. Protesters have vowed to continue civil disobedience in response to what they call politically motivated detentions.

The Belgrade Higher Prosecutor’s Office claims the accused had met at university faculties in the capital to plan attacks on state institutions and infrastructure. Over the weekend and into June 30, students and citizens set up roadblocks in various parts of Belgrade, including Zemun and near the Faculty of Agriculture, despite threats from police to forcibly disperse them.

One young protester in Zemun told local media: “Whenever we can, we will show resistance through civil disobedience.” Though police cleared several sites, including the main Gazela Bridge, demonstrators continued to regroup elsewhere.

According to the Interior Ministry, dozens have been detained for allegedly assaulting officers and disturbing public order. A police vehicle was also reportedly damaged during one blockade.

Protests have now spread beyond the capital, with temporary blockades reported – and later removed – in cities like Subotica, Cacak, and Pancevo.

The unrest follows a massive protest on June 28 night at Belgrade’s Slavija Square, which drew tens of thousands of people. Official government sources estimated the crowd at 36,000, while an independent NGO put the figure closer to 140,000. The rally, led by students, demanded snap elections and the removal of a pro-government tent encampment near the Serbian parliament.

Clashes erupted following the protest when police blocked access to the tent camp. In response, Interior Minister Ivica Dačić announced that 77 individuals had been arrested for involvement in the violence.

Tensions were already high in the days leading up to the demonstration. All railway traffic was halted due to bomb threats, echoing similar warnings during a March protest. Student organisations also accused police of stopping buses headed for Belgrade on the day of the rally.

The protest movement has grown steadily since last November, when outrage first erupted over a deadly incident at Novi Sad’s railway station. With public frustration mounting, the country faces continued instability in the weeks ahead.

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North Macedonia
Census Controversy Rekindles Ethnic Tensions in North Macedonia

A renewed proposal for an early digital census in 2026 by Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski has sparked backlash from the country’s largest ethnic Albanian opposition group, the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), which suspects the move could be an attempt to manipulate demographic statistics.

DUI voiced concerns on June 29, warning that the initiative may be designed to artificially lower the reported share of Albanians in the country. The group emphasised that Albanians “will know how to defend their voice, their status, and their dignity” in North Macedonia.

According to official results from the 2021 census, Albanians make up 29.52 per cent of the population. However, during that census, Mickoski’s party, the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE, openly questioned the credibility of the process, alleging it had been skewed to inflate the Albanian population count.

Now, with VMRO-DPMNE in power, the proposed electronic headcount is being seen by some as an effort to reshape the ethnic balance in official statistics.

The census has long been a sensitive and politically charged issue in North Macedonia, where population data plays a key role in power-sharing arrangements and minority rights under the Ohrid Framework Agreement.

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