IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of May 2025

Petra Bošková, Vanesa Opšenáková, Anna Gúliková

UKRAINE

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Operation Spiderweb or how the Ukrainians Made Their Statement with a Long Top-Secret Operation

Ukrainian secret service, the SBU, surprised the whole world with its strategically executed operation on the Russian territory thousands of kilometres from the Ukrainian borders. The core of the operation was using modern drone technology, which allowed each of the 117 drones to be managed by its pilot, enabling them to perform the attacks accurately and smoothly. Drones were allegedly smuggled to Russia to a warehouse located in Chelyabinsk, and from there, they were shipped by trucks as close as possible to their final destinations.

The targets were recognised and acknowledged by Ukrainians as a couple of military outposts, but mainly two Russian air bases, one of them being the Olenya Air Base in the Murmansk Oblast located approximately 2000 kilometres from Ukraine above the Arctic Circle and the second one being Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk in the Siberian region almost 5.000 kilometres from Ukraine. Within these air bases, 117 Ukrainian drones struck nuclear-capable long-range bombers, hitting supposedly up to 41 of them and destroying at least 13. According to the laws of war, which was initiated by Russia anyway, strikes on military bases were completely legitimate targets, as they provided the necessary infrastructure for aircrafts that bombed Ukrainian military and civilian targets.

For Moscow, this attack shows that their outposts and military bases are no longer safe, no matter the distance, as the drone technology is peaking and even if the damage caused by Kyiv does not extend to their claims, it still has put great costs and consequences for Russia. The personnel will have to change the locations of the remaining bombers and other aircrafts, as the bases can no longer be classified as safe outposts for maintaining and housing these and other units. The bombers could be used conventionally but also as nuclear-capable bombers, meaning that the strategic use of these capabilities decreased quite visibly.

By this, over 18 months long prepared operation, Kyiv has shown its strength and dedication to its cause of gaining back its whole territory, even at the risk of its own higher endangerment as the Russians are becoming more and more cruel and vile with their mass drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. In the days following the operation, planned and carried out under the command of the Security Service of Ukraine and overseen by President Zelenskyy, civil targets all over the country got hit by almost 500 strikes of various types of offensive materials, destroying and damaging the lives of Ukrainian inhabitants.

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Espionage Scandal Causes New Tensions between Ukraine and Hungary

In May 2025, relations between Ukraine and Hungary soured after the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced the detention of two Ukrainian citizens, a man and a woman, in the Transcarpathian region, who had previously served in the Ukrainian army, but were later supposed to work for Hungarian military intelligence and collect information about military bases, equipment and S-300 anti-aircraft systems in the region while identifying weak points in the defence and at the same time determining the reactions of the local population to the potential entry of Hungarian troops into the territory of Ukraine.

Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called these accusations Ukrainian propaganda, while the reaction of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was harsher, accusing Ukraine of cooperating with his political opposition from the Tisza party in order to disqualify him in Hungary. In his remarks, he also linked the alleged Ukrainian espionage to a proposed Hungarian law restricting NGOs from receiving foreign funding. The Ukrainian accusations also resulted in the expulsion of two Ukrainian diplomats for alleged espionage, to which Ukraine responded by reciprocating by expelling two Hungarian diplomats.

Hungary then announced on May 20 that it had uncovered two more alleged Ukrainian spies on its territory. The affair caused Hungary to cancel planned consultations on minority issues, and Hungarian Minister for European Affairs János Bóka declared that Ukrainian intelligence operations in Hungary would hinder constructive negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU.

The information the agents were supposed to collect was highly relevant, especially to Russia, given Viktor Orbán’s close ties with Vladimir Putin. The timing of the SBU announcement on May 9 – Victory Day in Russia, may have been intentional, according to former deputy head of the SBU, Viktor Jahun, to highlight the close ties between Hungary and Russia.

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MOLDOVA

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Russian Forces Potential Deployment to Moldova on the “Borders” with Transnistria

Prime Minister of Moldova Dorin Recean has stated that based on the intelligence assessments, there is hope in the Kremlin to deploy at least 10.000 more troops to the breakaway of the Moldovan region of Transnistria. Due to the upcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova, Moscow apparently seeks to tighten its influence on the Transnistrian government, which would not try to oppose a stronger Russian presence on its territory. Moldovan PM sees this as a great potential threat to the security of the state and the capability to function as a sovereign country. However, if Russia moves such numbers of its troops to Moldovan official territory, it could pose a threat to other countries in the region and the EU and NATO. This worry is based on the position of Moldova and especially the Transnistrian region, as it borders Ukraine and a member state of NATO – Romania.

Moscow has been actively trying to influence the outcomes a couple of times during the elections before, as Moldova remains a country that is torn between a pro-Western and a pro-Russian electorate and government. If the pro-Kremlin faction had won, Russia could just as easily send as many soldiers as it deems necessary to Moldova, basically controlling the whole country. Russia already has a small number of its troops in Transnistria, but as this region lies between Ukraine, with which it is currently in an open war, and the pro-EU government ruling the rest of the country, the Kremlin is not able to move any more of its troops to Moldova.

The Moldovan president and the current government have shown that they are quite serious about their intentions to integrate Chisinau’s internal structure into the EU. However, Moscow is constantly showing its interest in political systems in post-Soviet countries, trying to gain back its glory and power, at least through indirect influence over their governments and ruling elites. Among the Kremlin’s most popular strategies, based on a statement of the Moldovan PM, is using propaganda within the media space in Moldova, illegal financing through various private companies, mostly to pro-Russian parties and actors and spending great amounts of money on many influence operations, which are meant to destabilise system and damage state interests.                        

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Leader of a Neo-Nazi Group Extradited from Moldova to the US

A 21-year-old Georgian citizen who allegedly led a neo-Nazi group was extradited to the United States in late May 2025 after his arrest in Moldova last year. Mikhail Chkikvishvili faces serious charges of preparing and inciting violent hate crimes and acts of mass violence, which were allegedly carried out as a result of his activities planned during his stay in Moldova.

According to the prosecutor’s office, Chkikvishvili, also known by the nickname “Commander Butcher”, was the leader of the international extremist group “Maniac Murder Cult”, which adheres to a neo-Nazi accelerationist ideology and promotes violence against racial minorities, the Jewish community and other groups it describes as undesirable. It spread its propaganda primarily through chat platforms such as Telegram and through a manifesto called “Hater’s Handbook”.

Chkikvishvili was arrested in Moldova, where he was subsequently detained by local authorities until his recent extradition to the United States, which took place based on international cooperation with Moldova. During the trial in the United States, he declared his innocence through his lawyer and requested a psychiatric examination of his client. If convicted, Chikvichvili faces a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison for incitement to commit violent crimes.

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