IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of August 2023

Petra Bošková, Martin Tancer, Anna Gúliková, Martin Lukáč, Igor Píš


UKRAINE

 Photo: Shutterstock.com

First Slovak military aid package for Ukraine since 2023 announced in Kyiv

The Ministers of Defence of Slovakia and Ukraine, Robert Kaliňák and Denys Shmyhal, announced on October 6 in Kyiv that Ukraine will receive another military aid package from its neighbour, Slovakia. This package will include several Božena mine-clearing systems and other non-lethal help, such as medical vehicles or construction and engineering equipment.

Although it is already the 14th package of Slovak military aid for Ukraine, it is the first one that the Slovak government has provided Ukraine with since the current cabinet of PM Robert Fico took office in October 2023. The country used to be one of the largest donors in comparison to GDP, but Fico loudly criticised arms supplies provided by the preceding governments and cancelled a planned support package immediately after taking office. This is why, for some, the announcement of this package came as a surprise, although Defence Minister Kaliňák quickly pointed out that the Government’s stance on lethal military aid remains negative and they are only willing to provide humanitarian and non-lethal aid. Slovak businesses are, however, free to continue arms supplies on a commercial basis.

This package may be helpful in sparking a renewed feeling of partnership between the two countries, which have a somewhat strained relationship because of Fico’s meetings with Vladimir Putin and his negative comments about Ukraine. It was the first visit of a Slovak government official to Kyiv during this Government’s tenure, and Ukrainian Defence Minister Shmyhal already announced that Slovakia is working on the 15th package of support.



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Russian attacks on the Ukrainian civilians and their energy infrastructure continue

The war of Russia on the Ukrainian territory will most likely see its third winter so far, and with that, Moscow has once again turned its drones and missile strikes towards the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Over the course of the past couple of weeks, there has been a noticeable rise in the number of attacks on civilians, especially aimed at powering factories. These targets are directly chosen, as they, apart from killing Ukrainian civilians, cost the country dearly, forcing nationwide power restrictions, hurting mostly the day-to-day lives of Ukrainians. Moscow is, however, stating that its strikes are focused on the country’s military-industrial complex facilities, denying targeting civilians and civil infrastructure.

Even though now Ukrainian army can neutralise most of the drones and missiles now, defence systems are being overwhelmed and are not capable of taking all of them down, and so, civilians are getting hurt and killed. During one of the night attacks, stated by President Zelenskyy, Russia launched more than 650 drones and 50 missiles, showing that it intends for these strikes to be deadly and do damage in a great amount on the civil and energy infrastructure, lowering the spirits of Ukrainians in the process. The night attack mentioned earlier caused air alerts to go off in Kyiv for the entire night, and therefore, its inhabitants had to stay most of the night in the bomb shelters or deep underground metro stations, while wounding over 20 people all over the country.

As the power plants are being targeted, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is warning that Russia keeps putting the nuclear facilities in jeopardy. The report states that the supposed damage is reaching the critical level of nuclear safety and security of the facilities in Ukraine. IAEA is calling for maximum military restraint on attacks on the nuclear infrastructure, because one well-targeted strike could be capable of destabilising the reactors.



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Oil Sanctions Strike at Russia’s War Chest

On October 22, 2025, the United States announced a decisive escalation in its economic pressure on Moscow. President Donald Trump’s administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers — state-controlled Rosneft and privately owned Lukoil — accusing them of financing the Kremlin’s “war machine” in Ukraine. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent justified the move as a necessary step to “stop the killing,” citing Russia’s refusal to engage in peace negotiations, knowing that oil and gas revenues are the main source of financing Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The sanctions freeze all U.S.-based assets of both companies, prohibit American entities from trading with them, and threaten secondary sanctions against any foreign banks or traders facilitating oil transactions. The measures are described by analysts as an “economic bomb” aimed at cutting off a very large portion of Russia’s federal budget revenues. Without access to dollar payments, banks cooperating with these firms risk exclusion from the global financial system — a threat that has already caused Chinese and Indian buyers to scale back imports from the sanctioned companies.

Rosneft and Lukoil jointly account for more than half of Russia’s crude oil production and export, making them vital pillars of state revenue. Early market reactions suggest a gradual rerouting of exports through intermediaries and shadow fleets, a costly workaround that reduces profit margins. According to Reuters, the Russian central bank has sought to cushion the blow by lowering key interest rates, but the fiscal strain is mounting.

While President Vladimir Putin insists the sanctions will not undermine economic stability, Russian economists acknowledge the need for “structural adaptation” to sustain financing mechanisms. Experts predict that, though the short-term effects may be muted, the long-term consequences will be a significant erosion of Moscow’s capacity to fund its war effort.



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  • Collins; Maher; Hansler, CNN, “US sanctions Russia’s two largest oil companies and calls on Moscow to agree to immediate cease‑fire.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/22/politics/bessent-sanctions-russia.
  • HNONLINE, “Americké sankcie už tlačia na ruských ropných gigantov. Lukoil predáva svoje zahraničné aktíva.”https://hnonline.sk/finweb/zahranicna-ekonomika/96242522-americke-sankcie-uz-tlacia-na-ruskych-ropnych-gigantov-lukoil-predava-svoje-zahranicne-aktiva.
  • Kolesár, Samuel, STANDARD, “Sankcie USA na ruský Lukoil ohrozujú dodávky ropy na Slovensko. Aké máme možnosti.“ https://standard.sk/1066699/sankcie-usa-na-rusky-lukoil-ohrozuju-dodavky-ropy-na-slovensko-ake-mame-moznosti.
  • Liu, McCarthy, Mogul, CNN, “How hard will Trump’s ‘tremendous’ Russian oil sanctions hit Moscow? China and India may decide.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/28/energy/us-russian-oil-sanctions-china-india-intl-hnk-dst.
Ukraine – “I’m Not Going to Be Wasting My Time” – Trump Rules Out Putin Meeting Amid Peace Stalemate

On October 26, US President Donald Trump recently stated that he does not plan to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin unless he sees a clear effort to secure long-lasting peace by signing a Russia–Ukraine peace agreement. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump emphasised that he “is not going to be wasting [his] time”. Trump, who has been expecting peace in Ukraine to be achieved sooner than any other diplomatic efforts, called the lack of progress “very disappointing”. He stated that he thought that the diplomatic achievements in the Middle East, as well as the conflict resolution between Armenia and Azerbaijan, would be more difficult to execute than the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump claims that the main obstacle to this peace deal is the “tremendous hatred” between Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin.

Trump’s recent remarks follow Washington’s imposition of its first sanctions against Russia since he took office. The US sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two biggest oil companies, which was intended to pressure the Kremlin into accepting an immediate cease-fire. Russia reacted strongly, with former President Dmitry Medvedev calling the sanctions an “act of war against Russia”. Trump has encouraged pressure on Russia, calling on Chinese President Xi Jinping to continue to pull back on Russian oil purchases. Meanwhile, the conflict continues, with Ukrainian officials reporting “thousands” of strikes on civilian infrastructure.

 
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MOLDOVA

Group of Hooded Hackers Shining Through a Digital Russian Flag. Photo: Shutterstock.com

Moldova becomes part of the Single Euro Payments Area

On October 6, Moldova officially became part of the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), which is a European framework that enables EUR transfers with the same cost, speed and safety in all 41 participating countries – apart from the members of the European Economic Area, there is also the UK, Switzerland and some microstates. It effectively means that transfers of money to and from Moldova made in EUR now work the same as in other European countries. Eight commercial banks have already received participant status, with more expected to join in the next months.

The main benefit of SEPA is lower transaction costs between countries, which in the case of Moldova may generate up to 20 million EUR per year. As the Governor of the National Bank of Moldova, Anca Dragu, said, “this achievement will provide Moldovan citizens and businesses with access to a faster, more secure, and cost-effective payment system. Additionally, it will significantly reduce the costs of money transfers from the diaspora – an essential factor for many families in Moldova. As a result, the country’s economy will become more attractive to foreign investors”. In 2024, approximately 830,000 transactions worth 11,8 billion EUR were made between Moldova and SEPA countries.

The announcement came only one week after the parliamentary elections, which were won again by the ruling pro-European party, PAS. Joining SEPA is another step in a short time that leads the country further on its pro-European path.

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Why is the Orthodox Church in Moldova Threatening Its Potential Pro-European Path?

The European integration of Moldova is no longer questioned; however, the difficulties faced by common citizens persist, so society will turn to the new Government and the same PAS party. The strong Russian influence has not been fully addressed, and while the EU faces the same enemy as Chisinau, there is a difference between the influence operations Moscow conducts within the Union and in Moldova. One of the greatest threats and differences is religion, as Moldova has two parallel structures, with one of them being at its core the Russian Orthodox Church, “operating” on Moldovan territory.

The biggest struggle is that the parishioners are being politicised by Moscow, thereby increasing the vulnerability of democratic institutions, because churches can have significant influence in their societies. The institution of the Church is trusted and, in a way, therefore, free democratic expression is being taken away from individual citizens when political narratives are being spread by parishioners. There have also been some cases, when priests would go to Russia and as they would come back, they would be carrying bigger amounts of money in cash in their luggage. Coming from Moscow, these actions are being noticed by the Moldovan authorities, which have grown cautious of vote-buying over the last couple of years.

The fear of electoral corruption was great, but the main struggle, very similar to the EU, is the spread of disinformation, conspiracies, and lies. While in the EU, most of its inhabitants are Catholic, and so, having nothing to do with the Russian Orthodox Church, a great part of the Moldovan population is, firstly, Russian-speaking and, secondly, Orthodox. As these two collide, many Moldovans are strictly stating, a part of the Russian Orthodox Church. Within the communities and during masses, words spread far more quickly, and so, if the priests are stating that the EU will make Moldova abandon traditional values, people who do not support more modern ideas of today, such as completely normalising the LGBT question, they would, for sure, not follow the pro-EU path. These statements are mostly misleading and fake; however, this type of propaganda works wonders in certain settings.

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Moldova’s Fight Against Hybrid Threats

Moldova’s parliamentary elections confirmed the country’s pro-European orientation. The victory of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) was not only a political success but also a triumph over unprecedented hybrid warfare targeting the nation. International observers from the OSCE and European Parliament reported extensive foreign interference, cyberattacks, illegal financing, and coordinated disinformation campaigns largely orchestrated from Russia. Tactics ranged from deepfakes and bot networks to illicit cryptocurrency transfers aimed at buying votes and spreading cynicism.

By October 2025, Chişinău had made completing and implementing a national defence plan a priority. Moldovan authorities, including financial intelligence units, proactively identified and disrupted networks of illegal financing and electoral corruption in the days leading up to the vote. Strategic communication became central to countering cyber threats: the Government partnered with trusted institutions to run campaigns that went beyond elite “debunking” efforts in the state.

Moldova also strengthened international cooperation. On 16–17 October, the OSCE organised a workshop in Chişinău, bringing Moldovan and Ukrainian experts together to share threat intelligence, protect critical infrastructure, and exchange best practices in ICT security. Concurrent NATO partnerships for 2025–2028 aim to develop advanced defensive capabilities.

Despite Russian attempts to destabilise the vote with financial manipulation, hybrid attacks, and cyber offensives, Moldova’s combined domestic and international response proved resilient. The country has transformed vulnerability into a testing ground for effective defence against hybrid threats.

Maia Sandu expressed her concerns during the Paris Peace Forum 2025, claiming that there is a great need for the restoration of integrity in the internet space. Investment in institutional stability, cybersecurity, and civic resilience is strategic insurance. She also stated that the independent journalists greatly helped tackle disinformation, pointing out a major jump by over 50 places in the ranking made by Reporters Without Borders, claiming 31st place.



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Moldova – European Council Backs Moldova’s EU Accession

On October 21,  the European Council reaffirmed the strong support of the EU 27 for Moldova’s integration efforts by adopting conclusions following its autumn meeting. EU leaders welcomed Moldova’s efforts and significant advancements towards accession. Moldovan authorities were specifically praised for their effective actions taken to protect the integrity of the recent electoral process.

This is very important during a time of peak hybrid threats and electoral interference attempts by the Russian Federation. The threats are mainly aimed at undermining Moldova’s democratic institutions and spreading Russian narratives.

Official conclusion documents indicate that the EU will continue to work closely with Moldova to enhance the country’s resilience and stability. The conclusions also encourage Moldovan authorities, the Council, and the European Commission to maintain momentum. It was stated that the crucial „Fundamental Values“ (integration) cluster is going to be opened first and closed last, while clusters like „Internal Market“ and „External Relations“ will open once all necessary conditions are fulfilled. Christina Gherasimov, the Acting Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, welcomed the Council’s decision, describing it as an acknowledgement of important reforms and the joint effort of the Government and the citizens. Gherasimov stated that “the doors of the European Union are wide open” for Moldova.

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