IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of November 2025

Petra Bošková, Anna Gúliková, Igor Píš, Martin Tancer, Martin Lukáč

UKRAINE

Ukraine Flag with Statue of Lady Justice and Judicial Scales. Photo: Shutterstock.com

Ukrainian corruption investigation reaching Zelenskyy’s inner circle

Andriy Yermak used to be President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff and stood by him since before the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Although his influence over the Ukrainian President has been controversial for quite a while, as he held great power but was never elected by the people, his career in high politics ended abruptly after anti-corruption investigators swooped on his home in Kyiv. Before Zelenskyy became President, they worked together on his successful presidential campaign. Yermak was often viewed as Zelenskyy’s “co-president” because he helped to shape foreign policy, ousted political rivals and made decisions concerning the battlefield.

In July 2025, Ukraine was struggling with a wave of protests as Zelenskyy sought to strip two anti-corruption bodies of their independence and control them directly through the Government. Based on the President’s statement, both agencies were under the influence of Russia, and he was acting in the name of preventing their interference. These actions, however, came into conflict with the beliefs of Ukrainians as well as the European Union, and so, after the demonstrations, Zelenskyy had to take a step back. Later this year, the same two bodies released their investigation, and it implicated that members of the President’s inner circles might be connected to drawing off $100 million from public projects in the energy sector. Due to the fact that Moscow is pinpointing the energy infrastructure with its strikes almost on a nightly basis, causing power outages and cuts all over the country, the citizens are not taking these allegations lightly.

Even though Yermak’s exit was based on the probable connection to the corruption case, it may destabilise the peace talks held between the main representatives of the US and Ukraine, as he has been allegedly securing some assurances with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Changing the head of the delegation to the US in the middle of negotiations, while it seems that the US is favouring Moscow’s stance, might be hazardous, but Kyiv has shown over the course of the past 3 years that it can adapt to different situations under high pressure. Other challenging factors could be the EU, or rather Ukraine’s integration talks with the EU, because corruption allegations within the country’s internal governance structures may disrupt the process. When the EU representatives stated that the European governments need to see the will and the way to investigate and prosecute crime starting at the top of society, Zelenskyy fired Yermak either to clean his inner circle or to show his apparent stance towards the whole situation.

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From Geneva to Moscow: US Officials Race to Finalise 19-Point Ukraine Peace Deal

The US President Donald Trump accelerated efforts to finalise a peace deal to end the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. To finalise this plan, the US is sending its Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin. Simultaneously, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll is meeting with the Ukrainian delegations, having previously met with the Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi.

The US peace plan, presenting 28 points, has been significantly fine-tuned and changed after intense negotiations with the Ukrainian delegation in Geneva and Abu Dhabi. The initial draft of this plan has been viewed by many as “heavily favourable to Russia” and prompting concerns in Kyiv of “near capitulation”. Following talks, the plan has been whittled down to 19 points. Ukrainian officials indicated that the “most important points” have been agreed upon. However, sensitive points, like security guarantees, are still on the table and being discussed.

A diplomatic push is taking place against Russia’s continued deadly air strikes on Kyiv, killing at least six or seven people during the period of talks. Analysts express scepticism about the results of the talks. One defence expert suggested that the adjusted 19-point plan might be reverted to the original 28-point plan because Russians are expected to refuse to make concessions. Kyiv remains heavily dependent on the US for its ability to repel the nightly air strikes.

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Battle of Pokrovsk: Has Ukraine Definitively Lost The City?

 The defence of Pokrovsk—a major logistical and military artery in the west of Donetsk Oblast—is currently leading to a critical point, with military analysts and Ukrainian commentators suggesting the city’s fall is inevitable. After more than a year of fighting, Russian forces control most of the city, and Ukrainian supply lines are slowly being cut, creating a critical vulnerability that may no longer be sustainable to hold. Even Ukrainian maps such as DeepStateMAP now show most of the city under Russian control, with the northern parts remaining in Ukrainian hands.

The projected capture of Pokrovsk would be the biggest Russian achievement on the frontline after capturing the cities of Avdiivka and Bakhmut, and it may trigger a bigger domino effect for Ukraine. Pokrovsk lies on an important intersection, which grants Russia a major logistical advantage in its goal to occupy the whole Donbas region. Analysts predict that Moscow’s next immediate targets would be Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the four largest remaining Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk Oblast.

Moreover, the prolonged, fierce defence of Pokrovsk and the nearby city of Myrnohrad has already depleted and exhausted some of Ukraine’s most capable units. The subsequent withdrawal, if not managed swiftly, risks creating a significant gap in the front line, which analysts warn could put Ukrainian fortifications in danger and be highly exploited by the advancing Russian army. This military momentum, regardless of its cost in Russian casualties, reinforces Moscow’s political narrative of inevitable victory and could pressure Kyiv and its Western allies to negotiate under unfavourable terms.

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A Shield Above the Cities: Ukraine’s Struggle to Protect Its Winter Skies

In November 2025, Ukraine finds itself at a critical juncture regarding the protection of its airspace from ongoing Russian attacks. A combination of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles primarily targets civilian infrastructure, energy networks, and urban areas, causing severe electricity and heating outages. With winter approaching, this situation becomes not only a military but also a humanitarian challenge requiring immediate response. Strengthening air defense has therefore become one of the highest priorities of the Ukrainian government.

On November 10, 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine plans to order 25 additional Patriot systems from the United States. According to his statement, this is a decisive step that will enable the country not only to respond to current threats but also to build long-term sustainable and robust air defense. Zelenskyy also proposed that European countries that own Patriot systems could lend these devices to Ukraine and take them back after American replacements are delivered. This proposal would accelerate the deployment of defensive capabilities in critical regions and provide the country with additional time to integrate new systems. Additional support packages from the USA, approved in November totaling $105 million as an upper limit estimate, aim to maintain, modernize, and provide logistical support for existing Patriot systems. These include deliveries of spare parts, ammunition, and personnel training.

In addition to future orders, Ukraine has already received deliveries from Germany that supplemented existing Patriot batteries. Nevertheless, the president warned that these deliveries are still insufficient for full coverage of the entire country and its protection against massive, combined attacks.

Another news is that in a historic agreement signed on November 17, 2025, Ukraine will receive up to 100 French Rafale F4 fighter jets along with eight advanced air defense systems, with deliveries planned through 2035. President Zelenskyy described this as a strategic 10-year deal that will significantly strengthen Ukraine’s defense against intensifying Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. The agreement also includes joint production of interceptor drones and advanced radar systems, with France seeking EU financing and potentially frozen Russian assets to fund the purchase.

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MOLDOVA

Group of Hooded Hackers Shining Through a Digital Russian Flag. Photo: Shutterstock.com

Russian Drones Repeatedly Violating Moldovan Airspace

During the past couple of months, Europe has been noticing more and more incidents, when Russian drones, or in some cases, even fighter jets, crossed the borders to the forbidden Europe. One of the last nights in November was not quite pleasant for the Ukrainians, as Russian air attacks lasted for 11 hours straight, but citizens of the bordering areas of neighbouring states were not able to sleep either. Russian drones crossed the Ukrainian borders into Moldova and Romania. A total of six Russian drones entered Moldovan airspace, and one of them crashed on the roof of a farm building in a village 15 km from the Ukrainian border. Another drone crashed in Romania.

While the situation was a bit different for Romania, so is their position, as they are a NATO country, but Moldova is not, and this nation is essentially defenceless militarily, with no air defence against drones either. The two crashed drones did not carry any explosives, so based on this evidence, it would seem that specifically these drones were not accidentally crossing the borders of sovereign states. Even more apparent is the fact that these incidents happen more and more frequently. One of them caused a shutdown of Moldovan airspace for over an hour. The statements of the Moldovan high representatives are loud and clear, they denounce such incidents on their and on any other soil, as they are illegal and dangerous, posing a real threat to civil flights and people’s lives.

The Ambassador of Russia was summoned to the Moldovan foreign ministry each time this type of incident happened, and his official stand is that these incidents are intentionally worsening the poor relations between the Kremlin and Chisinau. As the Moldovan President and the newly re-elected Government are strictly pro-European, Moscow keeps accusing Moldova of being unfriendly and spreading an anti-Russian narrative amongst Moldovans. On the other hand, Chisinau is stating that Moscow is trying to destabilise and intimidate Moldova, as they are on their pro-Western path. The incidents are unacceptable for the Moldovan representatives, as Russians keep violating their territorial sovereignty.

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Peaceful Solution Through Economic Integration: Moldova’s New Strategy for Transnistria

Ever since the first talks about Moldova potentially joining the EU appeared, there has been a certain insecurity about how the well-known breakaway region of Transnistria could influence this process. There was no doubt that the Moldovan Government, together with its foreign partners (namely the EU and the US), have been actively engaging in solutions and plans for the reintegration of Transnistria back into Moldova.

Recently, Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu confirmed these discussions while speaking in Brussels at the European Union Enlargement Forum. However, it was stated by the Prime Minister that he could not give details on this question. Moldova’s commitment is to find a peaceful and reasonable solution for the Transnistrian conflict, focusing on the economic and constitutional reintegration.

For the first time, since Moldova gained independence, the Government subjected economic agents from Transnistria to customs taxes, demonstrating a key policy shift aimed at fostering mutual responsibility. This measure signalled that the reintegration must be on a mutual basis, as these entities had previously benefitted from advantages without contributions for the last 30 years.

The prime minister was also asked about the potential withdrawal of the Russian army from the left bank of the Dniester River, since there is currently a presence of approximately 1.000 Russian soldiers that are illegally stationed there. Munteanu mentioned potential scenarios but declined to elaborate.

Moldova benefits from the strong support of international partners, especially the EU, in creating the necessary conditions for Transnistria to reunite and return to the country’s constitutional space. As Moldova comes closer to the EU, its attractiveness increases, even with people from the left bank realising the real benefits of this path. Even people with deeply rooted pro-Russian views recognised the EU’s support for residents of Transnistria during the energy crisis.

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European Commission Praises Moldova’s European Integration Efforts

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos visited Moldova on November 10 and 11, bringing with her the new Enlargement Report, which was published by the European Commission one week earlier. She met with the new Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu, Parliament Speaker Igor Grosu and with members of the newly established European Integration Commitee and discussed the ongoing process of European integration of Moldova.

The European Commission praised Moldova in the report, stating that it has “progressed on its accession path with accelerated speed” and “significantly deepened its cooperation with the EU despite the continuous hybrid threats and attempts to destabilise the country and its EU course.” From January 1, 2026, Moldova will also become a member of the “Roam like at home” area, which provides citizens with the same conditions for mobile phone calls and data as in the whole EU. As Marta Kos said, Moldova made the highest annual progress out of all the candidate states and is now almost ready to start negotiations on all six clusters, which are required by the EU during the accession process.

It may seem as if Moldova is on a straightforward path to the EU, and the country itself set 2028 as a target date for complete accession. However, the road still contains one major obstacle – the Hungarian veto on starting negotiations with Ukraine, thus keeping Moldova out of the process as well. The EU ruled out the possibility of separating the two countries’ accession processes earlier this year, and Ukrainian Ambassador to Moldova Paun Rohovei underlined this decision when asked about it during Marta Kos’s visit. Therefore, the actual beginning of the negotiations remains uncertain.

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Moldova’s Break with Russian Soft Power

On November 27, the Moldovan Parliament voted to close the Russian Centre for Science and Culture, widely known as the Russian House, in Chișinău. Supported by 57 members of parliament. This action is far more than a simple administrative closure; it represents a tangible manifestation of Moldova’s commitment to sovereignty and its accelerating pivot toward a European future as well as spiraling deterioration of the bilateral relations between Chișinău and Moscow.

The official rationale for terminating the agreement with Russia is rooted in national security and the protection of information integrity. Moldovan authorities accused the Russian House of functioning not as a facilitator of genuine cultural exchange, but as a key state tool for projecting Russian „soft power“ and hybrid influence. Specifically, the Russian House, which is subordinate to the Russian Embassy and financed by the internationally sanctioned agency Rossotrudnichestvo, was charged with promoting the divisive „Russian world“ concept and disseminating „distorted narratives“ that undermined Moldova’s information security. Lawmakers pointed out that the Russian House had failed to propose any meaningful joint cultural activities in recent years, making its continued operation purely a political liability.

This significant step was catalyzed by immediate geopolitical tensions. The final draft law was prepared in the wake of repeated violations of Moldovan airspace by Russian drones. These incursions served as a stark reminder of the security threats posed by Russia and stiffened the resolve of the pro-European government, led by the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) and President Maia Sandu, to dismantle channels of Russian influence within the country.

For Chișinău’s pro-European leadership, the closure is a tangible step in aligning Moldova with the West, clearly demonstrating that the country is willing to actively resist foreign interference. While pro-Russian opposition parties and Moscow swiftly denounced the vote as a „hostile“ act and „Russophobia,“ the ruling majority countered that they were not rejecting Russian culture, but explicitly rejecting foreign propaganda disguised as culture.

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