IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of December 2025 & January 2026

Petra Bošková, Anna Gúliková, Igor Píš, Martin Tancer, Martin Lukáč

UKRAINE

Ukraine Flag with Statue of Lady Justice and Judicial Scales. Photo: Shutterstock.com

Informal Meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs Took Place in Lviv

A meeting of the EU’s Ministers for European Affairs took place in the Ukrainian city of Lviv from December 10–11, 2025. Although only informal, it was a highly symbolic step, underlining the EU’s strong support for Ukraine as it begins another winter under Russian aggression. The meeting, attended also by Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka, focused on Ukraine’s progress toward EU membership. The main outcome was the handover of a detailed list of reforms—a simplified roadmap for three of the six negotiation clusters. These reforms are primarily concentrated on the areas of the rule of law, the fight against corruption, and democratic institutions.

This gathering demonstrated the EU’s commitment to push Ukrainian integration forward despite the persistent Hungarian veto on formally opening accession negotiations. By directly delivering the reform “to-do list”—a process known as frontloading—the technical negotiation process was effectively unlocked. The Union signalled that it does not want to waste time, allowing Kyiv to start the complex work of harmonising its laws with the acquis communautaire even before the political hurdle is cleared. This is critical for maintaining momentum and confirming that Ukraine’s future lies within the European Union.

The ball is now in Kyiv’s court. The Ukrainian Government has adopted a 10-point priority reform action plan for 2026, focusing on strengthening the rule of law and anti-corruption measures. The pace of integration will depend on the speed and thoroughness with which Ukraine meets these reform conditions. The EU and the Commission are ready to begin technical negotiations within these clusters. While the formal opening of negotiations still requires the unanimous consent of all 27 member states, this meeting established a workaround to ensure that the work towards membership does not stall.

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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Delivers a Surprisingly Critical Speech at Davos

 On January 22, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a speech that was less of a traditional diplomatic address and more of a strategic wake-up call to the global elite. Addressing a packed hall of important figures, Zelenskyy’s rhetoric reflected the grim reality of the war entering its fifth year.

The President mostly criticised what he views as Europe’s “strategic paralysis”. He argued that while Ukraine remains the shield of the continent, European leaders are still caught in a “Greenland mode” —a reference to being distracted by other diplomatic arguments while the core of their security remains dependent on an increasingly unpredictable USA.

Zelenskyy claimed that the era of relying on a singular superpower for protection is over, and that Europe must urgently build its own unified military capability to deter further Russian aggression.

Another criticism came due to the fact that the EU could not agree on the full seizure of over $300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets. “Every day you debate the legality of using these funds, more Ukrainian children are killed by missiles funded by Russian oil,” he stated. He demanded that Europe follow the aggressive lead of the United States in targeting Russia’s shadow fleet—the fleet of ageing tankers used to bypass sanctions—which he described as a ticking ecological and security time bomb in the Baltic and North Seas.

The speech has been received with ovations by some, while others in Europe pointed out the fact that it is mainly the EU which carries the biggest burden of support for Ukraine since the USA stopped aid for the country last year. Nevertheless, analysts say that Zelenskyy managed to bring the topic of Ukraine back into discussion, after it became overshadowed by the conflict around Greenland.

Sources:
  • World Economic Forum, “Special Address by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine: Davos 2026 ,https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-volodymyr-zelenskyy-president-of-ukraine/
  • Andrew Roth, The Guardian,“Get out of Greenland mode and stand up for yourself, Zelenskyy tells Europe” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/22/zelenskyy-accuses-eu-leaders-waiting-direction-donald-trump-greenland
  • Tim Zadorozhnyy, The Kyiv Independent news desk, The Kyiv Independent, will meet Zelensky today in Davos”https://kyivindependent.com/trump-says-he-will-meet-zelensky-today-in-davos/
Ukraine’s Constitutional Crisis: Can Wartime Elections Be Held Legally?

Due to particular pressure from the United States, Ukraine is now looking into the legal framework required to hold elections while the nation is still under martial law. Donald Trump has openly argued that “it’s time” for Ukraine to have elections, saying Kyiv shouldn’t use the conflict as an excuse. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged that he had a “substantive discussion” about the potential of a vote with members of parliament after this suggestion. In response to pressure from the United States, Zelenskyy has demanded “strong security guarantees” from partners, especially Washington, before holding elections. He said that a vote might take place in 60 to 90 days if candidates and voters could be guaranteed security. He intends to press lawmakers to establish laws allowing elections in times of war.

But there are many obstacles in the way. Elections are completely prohibited by the Ukrainian constitution when martial law is in place, and it cannot be changed during this time. Officials point out that a legitimate, globally recognised election is nearly impossible due to daily Russian airstrikes, millions of internally displaced people, and the incapacity of thousands of soldiers on the front lines to participate.

Experts warn that bringing up the election question before peace is achieved could give Russia the opportunity to sabotage the process or subsequently argue that the administration is not legitimate. Intense negotiations over a contentious peace proposal presented by the US take place in parallel with this internal debate.

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Ukraine – First-Ever Trilateral Meeting: Ukraine, US, and Russia Seek Path to End War

 The first-ever trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the United States and Russia took place in Abu Dhabi on January 23, 2026, marking a significant diplomatic step to find a path toward ending the war. While the parties have previously held separate bilateral meetings with American representatives, this was the first time that all three parties sat behind one negotiating table.

The US delegation, led by Presidential Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, arrived in the UAE following a four-hour meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The talks are structured around two primary tracks, which are security and economic issues. The Donbas region is at the heart of the negotiations. Russia demands a full withdrawal of Ukrainian units from parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that are currently not under Russian control. This condition is framed by the Kremlin as the “Anchorage formula”. Ukraine, however, has instantly ruled out territorial concessions or any scenario resembling capitulation.

Beyond territorial disputes, the sides are debating a potential “energy truce”. This proposal, reportedly backed by the US, would secure a ceasefire on targeting energy infrastructure, potentially halting Russian strikes on the Ukrainian power grid in exchange for Kyiv refraining from attacks on Russian oil refineries and tankers. Economic discussions have also touched on the use of frozen Russian assets for postwar reconstruction.

While officials described the two-day sessions as “constructive”, experts warn that a major breakthrough is unlikely due to the fixed positions of both parties. The trilateral negotiations are set to continue in Abu Dhabi on February 1.

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Photo: President of Ukraine

Why Are Proper Security Guarantees So Important for the Deal Between Russia and Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is closer than ever before to a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv, but can the US President and other Western leaders keep the Russian threat away from going back to a full-scale invasion? Can they support a long-term peace? What would happen if the security guarantees were not set up? If the Russian troops stay in the Donbas region, what will stop them if they were to choose to reopen the war? Are we able to ensure the security of Ukraine? Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine would need NATO’s Article-5-like guarantees if there was a chance at a permanent ceasefire, but based on Trump’s statement from earlier this year, the US forces would not have a role in any peacekeeping mission, so it would require Europe to step up.

Even though it has been said that we are closing in on the peace deal on multiple occasions, it seems that, for now, at least, Kyiv and Washington are coming into agreement. The main difference between the sides’ stances is the matter of territorial layout, as the Americans are proposing giving the whole Donbas to the Russians, and Ukraine will not let go of its current positions in the region, because it would be risking its sovereignty and further conflict in the future. However, the essential disincentive is the Russian will to achieve its goals either through diplomacy or by force.

Most of the European leaders agree on the approach that adamantly supports Ukrainian territorial integrity and the right to choose its own path, but even Zelenskyy said he would compromise on the matter of NATO membership ambition in exchange for strong guarantees for his country. These should build a solid foundation for the deterrence against Russia, which could ensure repeated conflicts within the region, especially if they were on the level of NATO Article 5, as the efforts from 1994, which were meant to protect Ukraine’s security, failed tremendously. The question remains whether the Kremlin would agree to such requirements under the circumstances that it would not control the whole of Donbas.

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Ukrainian Energy Crisis and Its Outcome During the Fourth Winter of the Russian War

Over the course of the past 4 years, it has become clear that Moscow has no intention to take civilian lives into consideration when its main goal is to assert its dominance over every aspect of the Ukrainian population. With this winter reaching its peak, the Ukrainian energy infrastructure has visibly become the essential target for Russian drones and missiles, even more so than in the previous years. Strikes carried out by the forces of the Kremlin have such consequences that well-known Russian commanders and other major names from the war schemes and strategies are being indicted by the International Criminal Court.

During the winter season, Ukraine has always struggled with extreme weather conditions, temperatures dropping below minus 20 degrees Celsius, often accompanied by strong and icy winds with snow. These conditions, along with the damages on power plants and regular blackouts, further weaken the energy and electric infrastructure, which creates the biggest issues for civilians and military personnel alike. Experts state that the system is so fragile and unstable that even while still operating, it could collapse at any point and is on the edge of failing to provide the basics for cities and villages. The power outages have been continuously increasing since October 2025, when they were triggered by multiple damaged core thermal and hydroelectric power plants, lowering the electricity production in the country and leading to failures in power grids and municipal utilities.

Some smaller cities and villages do not get power for a couple of days in a row, and others get only an hour or two of electricity and clean water per day. People struggle to obtain basic human needs, as they are not able to prepare meals, use the bathroom, heat their houses and flats or even have lights turned on. At this point, according to the EU institutions, the Kremlin is using state terror to oppress Ukrainian civilians to gain their personal advantage within the conflict by freezing the population either to their death or “at least” out of their cities and even their country. The EU and other partners are trying to improve Kyiv’s situation and loan large amounts of money for the emergencies concerning energy infrastructure, however the safest option for Ukraine is to enhance its defence systems around the energy facilities.

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MOLDOVA

Group of Hooded Hackers Shining Through a Digital Russian Flag. Photo: Shutterstock.com

Is Russia Producing Drones in Transnistria?

At the beginning of December 2025, reports from Ukrainian secret services indicated that Russia is intensifying its military presence and capabilities in Transnistria, the Moscow-backed separatist region of Moldova. Specifically, intelligence suggests that Russia is utilising local industries to establish drone production in the small republic, mobilising reservists, and even recovering old Soviet weapons that are stored in warehouses in the self-proclaimed republic. The move follows recent documented incidents in November, where Russian drone debris crashed onto Moldovan territory.

If these intelligence assessments are accurate, the move represents a severe militarisation of Transnistria and a significant new hybrid threat against Ukraine. Strategically, establishing a drone base there—only about 80 kilometres from Odesa—would give Russia a big advantage and increase the operational tempo of drone strikes against Ukraine’s vital Black Sea coast and energy infrastructure, which has been repeatedly targeted in December. Furthermore, it acutely destabilises Moldova, potentially forcing Kyiv to divert military resources to secure its southwestern border instead of focusing on the main frontlines. It could also be seen as a Russian move to secure Transnistrian loyalty because rumours about a potential reintegration with Moldova have been spreading in the last few weeks.

The Moldovan Government is expected to continue diplomatic efforts, including the summoning of Russian diplomats, while intensifying security consultations with the EU and NATO. The focus for NATO and the EU is on preventing the conflict from escalating into Moldova and providing the necessary support to secure its borders and airspace. Ukraine is prioritising adapting its air defences and Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities to neutralise any strikes originating from Transnistria. The immediate priority is containing the risk of Russian sabotage groups infiltrating Ukrainian territory from the enclave and preparing for potential political destabilisation ahead of Transnistria’s de facto 2026 “presidential elections.”

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Moldova Takes Over the Presidency of the Council of Europe

In a very important event for Eastern European diplomacy, the Republic of Moldova has taken over the Presidency of the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers. It officially began in late 2025 and will continue into the first half of 2026. This Presidency represents a transformative chapter for Moldova – experts say that the Presidency is “transitioning the nation from a state seeking foreign support to a proactive leader shaping the continent’s human rights agenda.”

Under the leadership of Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi, the Moldovan presidency wants to prioritise the theme of democratic resilience. The last years have been influenced by hybrid threats and sophisticated disinformation campaigns, which in the case of Moldova came mainly from Russia. Now, Chisinau wants to utilise its unique, first-hand experience to advocate for stronger protections against foreign interference in democratic processes.

By hosting high-level forums in Chisinau, the Presidency wants to incite a dialogue on how middle-sized democracies can safeguard their information space while upholding the fundamental principles of free speech.

The Presidency is not merely a symbolic role; it is a strategic move toward Moldova’s ultimate goal of European Union membership. A successful management of the diverse agenda of the Council of Europe may show the EU that Moldova and its diplomacy are capable of achieving the strict criteria for membership.

Sources:
  • Eliza Mihalache, Radio Moldova, “Moldova’s Council of Europe Presidency priorities presented by Head of the Council of Europe Office in Chisinau” https://radiomoldova.md/p/59172/moldova-s-council-of-europe-presidency-priorities-presented-by-head-of-the-council-of-europe-office-in-chisinau
  • Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Moldova,“Minister Mihai Popșoi Participates in the 134th Session of the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe”, https://mfa.gov.md/en/content/minister-mihai-popsoi-participates-134th-session-committee-ministers-council-europe
  • Council of Europe, “Moldovan Minister Popșoi sees fragmented international environment as undermining multilateralism” https://www.coe.int/en/web/portal/-/moldovan-minister-pop%C8%99oi-sees-fragmented-international-environment-as-undermining-multilateralism
EU Money, Estonian Expertise: Building a Cyber Defence Training Hub in Chisinau

Eastern Europe is actively increasing cyber resilience thanks to a new regional cyber training hub in Chisinau, Moldova. The goal of this project is to protect against increasing cyber and hybrid threats, especially those that target elections and vital infrastructure and are frequently coming from Russia. The program, which is run by Estonia’s development agency (ESTDEV) with funding from the European Union, makes use of Tallinn University of Technology’s (TalTech) expertise. By 2027, the two-year initiative, which has 465,000€ in EU finances from Germany and Estonia, hopes to teach around 100 experts from Moldova, Ukraine, Albania, Armenia, and North Macedonia.

Supported by CyberCor, a local partner, the training is extremely hands-on and demanding. Students take part in realistic scenarios that take place 20 years in the future. These exercises, which mimic the toolkits used in real-life situations, evaluate fundamental abilities including coding, cryptography, and malware analysis. Participants reported experiencing pressure “just like in a real incident,” underscoring the significance of quick thinking.

Officials emphasise that cybersecurity nowadays is about national autonomy. Because vital services like payments, healthcare, and agriculture depend on IT systems, safeguarding these systems is fundamental to a nation’s ability to remain independent. Beyond technical exercises, the curriculum teaches crucial soft skills that are essential for government workers and operators of critical infrastructure, such as communicating and functioning under pressure.

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Survival Instinct: How Russian Threats Could Fast-Track a Romania-Moldova Union

 In January 2026, Moldovan president Maia Sandu sparked a political firestorm by stating in a British podcast that she would vote for the reunification with Romania if a referendum were on the table. Maia Sandu’s opinion was met with mixed reactions. On one hand, unionists who have sought to remove the border since 1940 were delighted, but the pro-Russian opposition, on the other hand, sees her statement as a threat to national independence.

Despite the high-profile debate, polls indicate that the majority of Moldovans currently do not support unification with Romania, with approval ratings generally hovering around 30%. Consequently, both governments currently focus on the main objective of Moldova, which is integration into the European Union. Romanian president Nicușor Dan has emphasised that while Romania supports this European path, it will respect any democratic decision made by Moldovan citizens.

However, while chances of a formal political union remain low, integration is rapidly advancing in the energy sector. This integration is mainly driven by the necessity of escaping decades of Russian energy blackmail. Moldova has successfully diversified its gas supply, moving its strategic infrastructure under the management of a subsidiary of the Romanian operator Transgaz. Furthermore, new high-voltage lines are being established to link Moldova directly to the Romanian grid, bypassing Soviet-era infrastructure in Transnistria.

Romania has even embedded this commitment to secure Moldova’s energy needs into its national energy strategy. Experts suggest that while the two nations tactfully avoid the subject of a formal union for now, a sudden crisis or Russian military threat could turn unification into a “survival instinct” for Moldovans. In the meantime, the barriers between the two nations are being dismantled by the quiet construction of pipelines and power lines.

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Economical Situation Improves in the Last Quarter in Moldova

Moldova’s national statistics bureau released data, which shows that the country’s gross domestic product grew by 5,2% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2025. This growth was mainly attributed to the expansion of Moldova’s agricultural industry, as well as to construction, manufacturing, and real estate development and transactions. Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister stated that it was driven by domestic demand, and therefore intensified investments and consumption. During the period between January and September, the GDP increased only by 2%, meaning that the economical situation in the country’s capital is slowly improving.

The leading party, PAS, is trying to reform the judiciary system to improve multiple branches within the institutions, amongst which is Moldova’s economy. Based on their statement, the justice reform and combating corruption will lead to a better state of the economic situation, and so to conditions that could more easily allow the country to join the European Union. PAS is claiming that this judiciary reform might be difficult to push through, but regardless of the cost, it will enhance the fundamental structures of law enforcement and constitutional obligations in the system. Due to this process, Moldovan judges and prosecutors will be evaluated, checked for any connections to corruption, and their responsibilities will be coordinated within the institutions, so they are able to be more efficient.

Reforms are welcomed by the European Union, because they show willingness to build the supported democratic structures and, by that, bring their economy closer to the EU standards. Therefore, besides the obvious positive effect that growing GDP has on the country’s economy, the process of Moldovan accession to the EU may be advancing more quickly than was thought. Chisinau is stepping up its resilience against ongoing hybrid and cyber-attacks by Russia and its proxies, which are gaining in intensity, destabilising the country, even after pro-Russian parties lost the parliamentary elections. However, Moldova is surely following the path to the EU on many levels, and it shows.

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Tightening Ties Between Moldova and Poland (Not Only) Through the Defence Partnership Between the Countries

President Maia Sandu was invited for an official visit to Poland by its President Karol Nawrocki, so that the two countries could stand by the reconfirmation of their cooperation, support and partnership on the international level. Both Moldova and Poland are determined to strengthen regional security based on the Russian war against Ukraine and the Kremlin’s ambitions for power and territory, mainly through the hybrid threats in Europe. Over the course of this cooperation, Warsaw has shown that Chisinau can count on their voice on the platform of the EU, as the Polish representatives have been consistently advocating for Moldova’s accession to the EU.

The main goal of meetings between President Sandu and Polish high representatives was to emphasise the cooperation of these countries on multiple levels, mostly politically, economically and strategically. It is quite important for Moldova to raise as much support as possible from an important ally within the European internal structures, if its primary interests lie with the EU. Sandu highlighted that during the past years, ever since the Russian war against Ukraine started, with help from the European countries, Moldova was able to lower its dependence on Russia, mainly in the energy and economical sector. In the first half of 2022, the country was solely subordinate to Russian gas and had extensive ties to the Russian markets, and so, with the Russian aggression, Chisinau had to change its ways on the international platform, because the close and dependent ties with Moscow were making the country vulnerable and threatening its sovereignty.

Polish support for Moldova’s accession to the EU is mainly driven by its interest in reducing the number of countries that are vassals of the Russian Federation, especially in Europe, as this poses a threat to European security and opens European space to Kremlin influence and hybrid threats. The two countries have agreed to improve and deepen their bilateral cooperation in the defence sector and build on their common interests in strengthening resilience, countering threats posed by Russia and protecting critical infrastructure. Polish President Nawrocki seconded Chisinau for breaking free from the Russian sphere of influence and stated that Poland will be supportive of Moldova’s accession to the EU. Support from various European countries for Moldova on its path towards the EU is showing that Russia cannot control sovereign states, and the resilience may persist even through the hybrid threats Europe is facing on a daily basis.

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