Geopolitical changes after one year of the war
The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. From the very beginning, it was clear that this intervention would influence the world´s geopolitical situation. It is February 2023, and the war in Ukraine has lasted for a whole year now. There is a significant phenomenon of forming new blocks, like those in the Cold war era. Although, there is a tendency for countries to form around two centres – Beijing and Washington nowadays. This war has shaken the position of Russia’s grip over former Soviet republics in Central Asia and opened a new role for Turkey as a mediator. Also, other regions of the world are “battlefields” in which actors like China, the EU, Russia, and Turkey fight to gain influence. That can be, for instance, achieved by investment projects or diplomatic, military or trade deals. Russia and Europe will be after this conflict weakened, and countries that can profit from this situation and strengthen their international position are China and the United States. China wants to aim for a long-term goal – to be the world´s leading power by 2049.
Pierre Razoux, the head of French think-tank FMES, thinks that “this chaotic reorganization is real, but probably temporary “. However, Beijing supports Moscow, but it also doesn´t want to make moves that could be negatively perceived by the West. Although Washington offered help to Ukraine, which is on a higher level than China’s help to Russia, economic relationships became stronger, and Russia, according to Euractiv, is hazardous of becoming a vassal or satellite of China. “The Kremlin is betting on diversifying its geopolitical, economic and strategic ties with Turkey, the Middle East, Iran and Africa” to limit its dependence on Beijing, P. Razoux said.
The European Union, in this situation, can be considered a key player, but there is a risk of “playing second fiddle“ to the US. EU, during this conflict, showed lots of qualities, such as quick reactions, military support, offering aid to refugees, and reducing its energy dependence. There is a question if there will be just two world blocks and the EU will join the Washington one, or the EU will become a third one.
Changes can also be seen in globalisation. Because of harsh sanctions from the EU and the US, the Russian economy has slowed down, and the standard global free-trade system has transformed.
The three most basic needs of humans were influenced by the war – food, heat, and shelter. It creates pressure not only in the developing countries but the “wealthy West“ as well. The consequence of these issues is numerous protests in several countries.
Mihaylovskiy Monastery in Kyiv, Ukraine. Photo: Irina Afonskaya/ Shutterstock.com