Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: Potential for opening a new Russian battlefield in Europe

Anna Gúliková

While Russia is currently still violating the territorial integrity of Ukraine, with Moldova’s parliamentary elections, it has become more important now than ever that the path of Chisinau remains on the track towards the EU, as Moldovans were choosing between the West and the East. We live in a supposedly modern world, but people keep forgetting that every single way has been walked before and that every decision has its consequences, yet we are not able to realise that some rules cannot change. Russia, which has repeatedly violated the rule of international law and order, is not only using physical force to gain access to different countries, but is also fighting a hybrid war against the West, and it has been implying for many decades, even before the creation of the Russian Federation, as the former USSR. Moscow uses lies and conspiracies to undermine and suppress sovereign states and influence their internal affairs just to create more chaos. Moldova’s parliamentary elections could make a difference, not only for Moldova, but also for the European Union, because if the pro-Russian bloc had won, it could potentially endanger the whole of Europe as well.

Moldova has strong historical ties to Russia, or rather the former USSR and the Russian language, spoken by almost half of its citizens, makes it that much easier to spread Russian influence within the communities. It was, and even after the elections, it still is present in everyday civilian life, even though in today’s society, we can perceive single parts of Russian strategic communication as army units in the midst of a hybrid war. We are far from the age when the greatest weapons were causing “only” massive physical destruction, as of today, sometimes the most important objects are rather untouchable, such as information. The Russian Federation utilises every available asset to shape public opinion and create chaos within the state; therefore, it becomes much easier to influence the main interests of the state and its high representatives. Moscow was trying to achieve the same goal in Moldova, and today, it is possible to state that it did not win this battle. Even though the internal situation in Moldova before the elections demonstrated the scale of Russian influence, in some countries, which are on their path to the EU or are already part of the EU, the Russian narrative is still present and has not yet been fully overcome.

„While Russia is currently still violating the territorial integrity of Ukraine, with Moldova’s parliamentary elections, it has become more important now than ever that the path of Chisinau remains on the track towards the EU, as Moldovans were choosing between the West and the East.“

Photo: Shutterstockc.com

Political system of the Moldovan Parliament

The Republic of Moldova is a constitutional republic with a mixed system of Government, meaning that it has a dual executive similar to Ukraine, Romania and France. It consists of a President, Prime Minister, Council of Ministers and a single-house legislative body or unicameral legislature. The authority on the judicial review of the constitutionality of law is performed by the Constitutional Court. Today’s constitution of Moldova replaced the former Soviet alternative after declaring its independence in 1991 by adopting a new fundamental law in 1994. This also established some amount of autonomy for the Transnistrian and Gagauzian regions.

Parties and members of Parliament are elected directly by Moldovan citizens within the country’s borders and by the diaspora for a 4-year electoral period. The Parliament, as the legislature and supreme representative body, consists of 101 members, and they have many different competencies, while their main role is to enact legislation, call for referendums, control the executive, ensure the uniformity of legislation in the Republic of Moldova and direct the ways of democratic, foreign and military policy. The Parliament is also responsible for approving international treaties, as well as the state budget, and declaring a state of emergency in the country.

The minimum threshold for an individual party to enter the Parliament is 5%, and while independent candidates must receive at least 2%, electoral blocks of multiple parties need to gain 7%. The elections are declared invalid when the requirement of one-third of registered voters turning out is not met or when there are concerns that a third party is influencing or manipulating the electoral results.

„The minimum threshold for an individual party to enter the Parliament is 5%, and while independent candidates must receive at least 2%, electoral blocks of multiple parties need to gain 7%. The elections are declared invalid when the requirement of one-third of registered voters turning out is not met or when there are concerns that a third party is influencing or manipulating the electoral results.“
„The party that has held the power in Moldova since 2021 is called the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). In the elections of 2021, PAS gained 52,8% and was able to rule alone as the parliamentary majority with 63 seats for the past 4 years.“

Top 3 parliamentary parties

The party that has held the power in Moldova since 2021 is called the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). In the elections of 2021, PAS gained 52,8% and was able to rule alone as the parliamentary majority with 63 seats for the past 4 years. This party is oriented towards the West and its main goal, as it claims, is to integrate Moldova into the European Union. The most visible representative of this party is the current Moldovan President, Maia Sandu, who founded PAS and was its leader prior to her first presidency in 2020 followed by her second which started in 2024. Based on its program and statements, PAS can be considered as a liberally conservative party that is trying to close up the ties of Moldova and the pro-Russian circles and follow the European standards in order to gain its membership in the EU over the course of the following decade.

Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), a highly pro-Russian and anti-European bloc, consists of 4 leftist parties, one of which got banned just days before the elections. This bloc was created before the elections in 2025, and its predecessor before the July 2025 elections used to be the Bloc of Communists and Socialists. BEP presented the greatest danger for the electoral process, while the party had the potential to manipulate the results, as its main representatives have a history of collaborating with the Russian state. Led by former president of Moldova Igor Dodon, who is also the leader of the Socialist Party, it contains Communist Party with Vladimir Voronin, Future of Moldova Party, which is a populist and leftist party led by Vasile Tarlev and as the forth, the one that did not participate in these elections, Heart of Moldova led by the former Gagauzian governor, Irina Vlah. All of these figures were members of some executive or legislature body in Moldova or its autonomous regions and are all connected to collaborating with the Russian regime and its influence over Moldovan internal politics.

Another new party, or rather a bloc of parties, is the Bloc Alternativa, which profiles itself as a centre-left party with intentions towards European integration, strengthening the rule of law, social justice and a democratic system which will guarantee real freedom, fairness and security. However, its main representatives also have a history of following the pattern of very anti-European narratives. Its leader, Ion Ceban, the current mayor of Moldova’s capital, Chisinau, is not permitted to enter the Schengen Area, which was declared by Romania, as he poses a threat to national security, although this decision did not have an official public reasoning. Ceban was also a member of Parliament in three legislatures under the Communist and Socialist Parties. Another important figure of Alternativa is Alexandr Stoianoglo, who used to be Prosecutor General in Moldova and was a Socialist candidate in the 2024 Moldovan presidential elections, losing to Maia Sandu in the second round. His presidential campaign, although stating to be pro-European, was also declaring political connections to Russia as well as the EU. Other influential faces of the Alternativa bloc had apparent and proved ties to Russia in one way or another as well.

Photo: The Parliament of the Republic of Moldova

Why is Moldova important?

Moldova, due to its geographical position, creates an important border between Europe and Russian influence, as it borders Ukraine, where the Russian war is currently taking place, and Romania, which is a member of both the EU and NATO. This country is quite small, but as a piece of the puzzle really makes its way to stop Moscow from gaining a great advantage over Ukraine and possibly the EU. If the pro-Russian parties won the elections, which was considered unlikely, but still presented a certain threat to the democratic world, it would most likely stop the European integration of Chisinau and cool the warm relations the country has towards the West after the last 4 years.

Almost half of the Moldovan population speaks Russian as their mother language, even though the official language of the country is solely Romanian. Russian propaganda was quite extensive, very available mainly for the Russian speakers and as per usual, its main goal was to create chaos and overwhelm people with untrue information and conspiracies, so they would struggle to see the reality. They attempted to highlight the greatest problems Moldova faces, which are primarily economic, and attribute them to the Government, even though most of these issues are the result of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the current global geopolitical landscape. However, it makes sense that people would listen to it, if they only spoke Russian, for example, if they live or come from the Northern part of the country and the autonomous regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia, as usually the pro-European narratives were in Romanian.

Therefore, Moldova’s being in the EU is in the utmost interest of Western countries, as they have invested a lot of time and money, and so their success and credibility depend on the country’s steady development. With Moldovan help are better able to keep the Russian influence at bay. Moldova is a partner of the EU, and so, it is being supported in strengthening democratic pillars, such as anti-corruption measures and empowering the rule of law within the system. For its efforts, Moldova has been considered a frontrunner of reform and political and economical transformation. There have been some scandals with backsliding, but those can happen over the course of years, even in the so-called modern countries of the European Union, and overall, the system in the country has been making remarkable progress. In the end, it really has become a ‘us against them’ kind of situation, where if the EU does not help Moldova, there is a high chance that Russia will.

“ In the end, it really has become a ‘us against them’ kind of situation, where if the EU does not help Moldova, there is a high chance that Russia will.“
„For a small country, such as Moldova, it is important that it continues on its pathway towards the EU, because by itself, it would be greatly vulnerable to bigger actors, who intend to take their control back, which, in the case of Russia, is not being hidden anymore.“

Results of the elections

On the 28th September 2025, Moldovans have chosen to follow on their path towards the EU, as the pro-European PAS has been re-elected by getting their vote from 50,2% of all registered voters, meaning that for the following 4 years, it will be able to rule the country by itself with 55 seats of 101 in the Parliament. The number of seats is smaller than in the elections of 2021, but still, the results are better than Europe dared to hope. This shows that the distance between Chisinau and Moscow keeps growing, while its close relations with Brussels seem to be continuously growing.

This relief for the pro-European bloc has come at a time of some kind of uncertainty within all whole Europe, as even the countries of NATO cannot be sure if Russia is planning a conventional war against them in the near future, overlooking the hybrid war, which has been happening, without us properly addressing it. For a small country, such as Moldova, it is important that it continues on its pathway towards the EU, because by itself, it would be greatly vulnerable to bigger actors, who intend to take their control back, which, in the case of Russia, is not being hidden anymore. Although the Patriotic Electoral Bloc was by its polling estimates gaining at times more percents than the PAS, in reality its results have not come even close to the PAS by gaining 24,2% of votes. BEP and its representatives are also being accused of cooperating with Moscow to manipulate the elections and influence the voters by paying them to choose differently than they intended to. These problems are to be addressed, in the face of pressure from the Government and fear of interference from Russia; however, even if proven true, the people of Moldova chose democracy and their future in the European Union, which is the most important substantiality.

Photo: Shutterstockc.com

Prospects of elections in Moldova

If Moldova continues to reform its system and develop its internal structures, it might have a shot at becoming a member of the EU by 2030, as it is claimed by its officials. There, for sure, will be many obstacles on its way, as the opposition has already started to claim the election results to be fake and accused the EU of manipulating the vote and earning its victory through buying votes of the diaspora. President Sandu has rejected this criticism, arguing that all of the citizens from central Moldova, its autonomous regions and diaspora had the same exact conditions to vote based on the law of the elections in the country.

The European Commission has stated that Moldovans have chosen a path toward accession to the EU. The determination of Chisinau to implement reforms into the existing political and judicial system in the country has been shown in the preliminary conclusions of the OSCE/ ODIHR, which have stated that these elections were competitive, offered political alternatives, were organised well and supported the rule of law established in Moldova. Based on these findings, even considering the fact that the elections might have been under the interference of Russia and its hybrid war, it is able to consider Moldova to be on its best way to gain membership in the European Union over the course of the next 10 years, if it follows its current patterns.


Anna Gúlíková is an Intern at the Strategic Analysis Young Leaders Programme

Disclaimer: Views presented here are those of the author solely and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Strategic Analysis

„Based on these findings, even considering the fact that the elections might have been under the interference of Russia and its hybrid war, it is able to consider Moldova to be on its best way to gain membership in the European Union over the course of the next 10 years, if it follows its current patterns.“
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