Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Review of January 2025

Petra Bošková, Vanesa Opšenáková, Kristína Šebová, Zuzana Šmilňáková, Kristína Piknová, Lucia Jašková, Matúš Vicen



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Albania
Albania, Italy, and UAE signed an agreement on undersea cable project

On January 15, Albania signed an agreement with Italy and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on clean energy cooperation worth around €1 billion during the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi. The agreement primarily foresees the implementation of an undersea electricity interconnection project to link the well-known Albanian port of Vlore with the Italian region of Apulia within three years.

The advantage of the partnership is that the UAE will provide Albania and Italy with long-term expertise in renewable energy technologies, which in the case of Albania may be particularly beneficial for the possibility of finally focusing on solar and wind energy in addition to hydropower, which has long dominated electricity production. In general, Albania is already quite successful in this area, having managed to increase its renewable energy generation capacity by 500MW in the last two years, putting it in the top ranks in Europe along with the Scandinavian countries.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama considers this move not only as a benefit for the three parties involved in the agreement, and foresees that it can help to increase energy security and promote sustainable development in the whole region. Indeed, the project will not only connect Albania and Italy with its 430km long route under the Adriatic Sea but will also facilitate access for Balkan countries.

The Italian grid operator Terna and the UAE National Energy Company are mainly involved in this initiative, but apart from the interconnection itself, the agreement also mentions the cooperation of Masdar, a UAE-based renewable energy company chaired by Sultan Al Jaber, with the Albanian state-owned energy company KESH, which would be involved in the construction of electricity plants with a total capacity of 3GW in Albania, and subsequently it would be possible to export the green energy to Italy.

It can also be noted this trilateral agreement can help Albania meet its goal of becoming a net exporter of electricity by 2030.



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Bosnia and Herzegovina
Will there be any change within the US-BiH relations?

On January 20, the whole world could watch the Inauguration day of the 47th US President- Donald Trump. As the US is a world power, it is going to influence international relations within all regions of the world. The Balkan region is especially important for the US, EU, China, and Russia.

Nowadays, it is well known that since Trump’s first office in 2016, 13 BIH officials have been sanctioned, Milorad Dodik among them. President of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik aims to discharge these sanctions and hopes for a change under the Trump administration. So far, Dodik has tried to order banks to unblock his account and all of the sanctioned accounts. Despite this and his status on social network platform X, nothing has changed because, as economic expert Svetlana Cenić said, Dodik has no constitutional authority or right to order such a directive.

The President of Republika Srpska has no constitutional authority over banks or the Banking Agency. There is a Banking Agency that regulates the work of banks. The Banking Agency cannot act in an orderly manner either,” notes Cenić.

Many political analysts agreed that Bosnia and Herzegovina won’t catch Trump’s attention and the relations with the US won’t change. This means the sanctions against Dodik and other 13 officials will unlikely change.

After all, it was under the first Trump´s office in 2016 when Milorad Dodik was put on the sanction list. Some of the experts see US relations with BiH still as an “appeasement” policy and call for more focus on the region as the Russian and Chinese interests are rising here. Especially dangerous could be the separatist and secessionist tendencies in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which could cause more and more destabilization in the region.



Sources:
  • Sarajevo Times. Sarajevo.: Can Dodik order Banks to unblock Accounts of Persons on the US Blacklist? https://sarajevotimes.com/can-dodik-order-banks-to-unblock-accounts-of-persons-on-the-us-blacklist/
  • Sarajevo Times. Sarajevo.:Despite Hopes and Wishes, BiH likely won’t captivate Trump’s Attention, https://sarajevotimes.com/despite-hopes-and-wishes-bih-likely-wont-captivate-trumps-attention
  • Bulinja H. and Begic A. Balkan Insight. Washington DC.: US Needs to Reset Failed Policy of Appeasement in Bosniahttps://balkaninsight.com/2025/01/21/us-needs-to-reset-failed-policy-of-appeasement-in-bosnia/

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Montenegro
The Cetinje Mass Shooting: A Warning to Montenegro’s Security and EU Aspirations

Aco Martinovic, 45, shot 12 people in the town of Cetinje on January 1, 2025, in Montenegro, causing the deadliest mass shooting in the nation’s history. The incident resulted in the critical injuries of four additional people. After the attack, the perpetrator committed suicide. This tragedy has brought to light Montenegro’s severe structural issues, such as lax regulation of gun ownership. These issues pose a serious threat to national security and stand in the way of the country’s entry into the European Union.

The Cetinje town council declared that resignations in the security sector are required and called for an impartial investigation to determine personal accountability for any shortcomings. In remembrance of victims, about a thousand demonstrators gathered outside the Interior Ministry in the capital, Podgorica, on January 5. They demanded the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister for Defense and Security Aleksa Becic and Interior Minister Danilo Saranovic.

The tragedy has increased worries about the degree of violence in the politically divided Montenegrin society. It also called into question whether public institutions were prepared to address issues like gun ownership. In terms of the quantity of illicit firearms per capita, Montenegro ranks sixth globally, according to state television station RTCG.

Two significant problems that Montenegro is also facing are organized crime and corruption, which officials have promised to address in response to pressure from the European Union, which the small country hopes to join.

A major step toward completing Montenegro’s EU membership was taken with the start of talks on the writing of its Accession Treaty as of December 2024. By 2028, the Montenegrin government hopes to become a full member of the EU, provided that all requirements and reforms are fulfilled.



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Kosovo
Kosovo Closes the Parallel Institutions Used by the Serb Minority

The government led by Albin Kurti closed the remaining institutions used by the ethnic Serb minority in the north of Kosovo. This move comes amidst the campaign for Kosovo’s parliamentary elections, which are to be held on February 9, 2025. The closing announced by Kosovo’s Ministry of Interior was condemned both by the European Union and the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Mission to Kosovo, Caroline Ziadeh.

This month’s closing of the so-called parallel institutions, which were run by Serbia primarily in the municipalities with ethnic Serb minorities in the north of Kosovo, is a continuation of Kosovo’s governmental policies towards these institutions. On January 15, the Kosovo officials announced that they closed down post and tax offices in ten municipalities. Interior Minister Xhelal Svecla stated that “the era of Serbia’s parallel and criminal municipalities and institutions in the Republic of Kosovo has ended. Today, Serbian parallel institutions in Lipjan, Obiliq, Prishtina, Fushe Kosove, Vushtrri, Novoberde, Kamenice, Viti, Rahovec, and Skenderaj, and the illegal postal and taxation office have been closed.”

Previously, in May 2024, the police closed six offices of Serbia-run financial institutions. In August and September 2024, several parallel institutions, including the Serbian postal service, were closed, and the Central Bank of Kosovo banned the use of the Serbian dinar.

Head of the United Nations Mission to Kosovo, Caroline Ziadeh, expressed concern about these actions that she thinks might lead to further erosion of trust between communities and Kosovo authorities. Furthermore,Ziadeh is concerned about the impact of the closings on the daily lives of the Serb minority in Kosovo.

The Spokesperson of the European Union’s External Action Service reminded Kosovo that the status of the parallel institutions was to be determined through the EU-facilitated dialogue and not through a unilateral action. The head of the Serbian government’s office for Kosovo, Petar Petković, called Kosovo’s actions an act of terror and left the Brussels talks with Kosovo representatives regarding the establishment of the joint commission on missing persons. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić vowed to continue financially supporting the ethnic Serbs in Kosovo who were employed in the parallel institutions.



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Serbia
Novi Sad disaster protests continue, sparking a nationwide youth-led anti-government movement

A deadly November 2024 disaster in the Serbian Novi Sad railway station, claiming 15 lives, has brought the problem of corruption and secrecy in public relations to the spotlight. Since then, thousands of protesters have demanded a fair investigation and accountability for the collapse of the station. The attention also turned to the Chinese construction company that was responsible for the reconstruction of the station, which is part of the well-known construction project of the Budapest-Belgrade railway. The problem, however, is that the project is under state secrecy, which, according to the government, serves as a protection against possible threats to the completion of the project. This practice prevents access to information, undermines transparency, and hinders a fair investigation of the tragedy.

Given the circumstances, the situation evolved from relatively small gatherings in front of the collapsed station to a nationwide protest movement led mainly by university students from several Serbian cities. They are blocking classes and occupying university buildings in the protest, which has now turned into an anti-government protest demanding political and societal change in the country. Protesters claim that the Novi Sad disaster was just a tipping point, and people have been unhappy for a long time with the corruption and secrecy of the regime. According to them, they are willing to stand their ground until the responsible are held accountable, and by responsible, they mean government officials. Students are heavily supported by professors across the country, and with time passing, more and more students are joining the idea of the protest movement. They are also supported by the opposition, but the movement is fully civic. Some leading student protestors claim that they are pursued and intimidated by the Serbian secret service. The Serbian president also accuses university professors of initiating the protests and inciting students to action.

So far, the investigation has brought charges against 13 people, among which are also state officials, including former Serbian construction minister Goran Vesi. Protesters believe that the prosecution of those 13 responsible people is not enough and that it is just window dressing to cover a deep problem of corruption, which they believe is the main cause of the disaster. Similarly, the government has released vast amounts of documents regarding the construction, but civil society urges that released documents do not possess information about the corruption and causes leading to the disaster.

 

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North Macedonia
North Macedonia’s new expressway shall enhance the regional integration

The highly awaited Kriva Palanka – Dlabochica – Stracin expressway was officially opened on January 4 2025. This marks a major step forward in the region’s infrastructure development.

Thanks to the new expressway, the journey between Stracin and Kriva Palanka now takes just ten minutes from the previous 30-minute drive. Moreover, thanks to the section Kriva Palanka – Deve Bair which was constructed in early 2020, travel to the Bulgarian border is now even faster and smoother. This shall speed up the Sofia – Skopje drive.

The route is expected to accommodate 16,000 vehicles per day, featuring two driving lanes, two shoulder lanes, and 13 viaducts. The new road is spanning to 23 km.

Macedonian Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy Ljupco Nikolovski emphasized the economic importance of the route, saying that the expressway is necessary for connecting the country with Bulgaria and helps to accelerate the development of the region. Nikolovski added that it is an opportunity for North Macedonia to become a local transport and energy hub. Representatives of the EU declared that the project enhances North Macedonia’s competitiveness, facilitates trade, and attracts foreign investments.

At the opening ceremony, PM Mickoski declared that this road is just the beginning, and North Macedonia will be developing along Corridor VIII also Corridor X, as well as new routes such as Gostivar – Bukojčani, Kichevo – Ohrid, and Prilep – Bitola.

This project was funded through a combination of an EU grant from the Western Balkans Investment Framework, a loan from the World Bank Group and a national contribution. The biggest contributor was a loan from the World Bank Group of €20.3 million, then EU grand of €13.9 million, complementing the €2.4 million from North Macedonia. Overall, the expressway cost €36.7 million.

This construction is part of the larger project of Corridor VIII, which connects Albanian Durres port on the Adriatic Sea to Bulgarian Varna port on the Black Sea, passing through North Macedonia. Corridor VIII has been labelled as Flagship 1 – Connecting East to West in the Economic Investment Plan for the Western Balkans 2020-2024, aiming to stimulate the economic recovery of the post-war region and foster regional economic integration.



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