Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

First half of April 2025

Petra Bošková, Matúš Vicen, Lucia Jašková, Kristína Piknová, Kristína Šebová

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Albania
A month into the controversial TikTok ban ahead of the May elections – unjustified measures leading to censorship?

In December 2024, Albanian PM Edi Rama decided to propose a one-year ban on the social network TikTok to protect children after the deadly stabbing of a 14-year-old teenager following a conflict on the social media platform. Prime Minister Edi Rama says the measure is based on alleged feedback from parents – 90% of the 65,000 people surveyed supported the ban. The measure came into effect on March 13, 2024, but the app remains accessible to some users via mobile devices or VPNs.

However, the ban has drawn sharp criticism from experts, opposition politicians and human rights organisations. Three organisations – BIRN Albania, the Centre for Legal Empowerment and the Albanian Journalists Association – have filed a complaint with the Constitutional Court seeking to rule the ban unconstitutional. They argue that this is censorship that threatens the freedom of expression and digital rights of citizens.

A key point of controversy is the use of Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) technology by the National Cyber Security Agency. DPI enables detailed monitoring and filtering of internet traffic, including blocking specific applications. Albanian authorities claim that DPI respects the GDPR and is in line with other European countries that are using this technology and liken it to a postal employee who sees the envelope but not its contents. However, experts warn that the technology does not have a legal framework in Albania, and its use can be misused for censorship. They point out that DPI is commonly used in authoritarian regimes like Turkey.

The ban also comes in the run-up to May’s parliamentary elections, which has raised suspicions that it is an attempt to curb opposition voices that are popular on TikTok. Media freedom organisations have described the ban as a disproportionate and extreme interference with freedom of expression and access to information. TikTok has more than 1.5 million users in Albania over the age of 18, compared to the country’s total population of 2.4 million.

Sources:
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina Faces New US Tariffs – Defence Industry Most at Risk

Following the announcement by US President Donald Trump on the introduction of new tariffs on imports to the United States, concerns have begun to rise in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the potential economic impact of this move. Among a wide range of affected countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina is now facing tariffs of up to 35 per cent on all goods exported to the US.

Although the United States accounts for only about 1 per cent of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s total foreign trade, the newly imposed tariffs could significantly affect one strategic sector – the defence industry. This industry has played a long-standing and important role in bilateral trade between the two countries. Over the past decade, trade between BIH and the US has grown by 71 per cent, indicating an upward trend that could now be disrupted.

On April 3, 2025, no official statements had been made by authorities in Sarajevo. The government’s response remains uncertain. However, experts warn that if the full tariffs are implemented, this could pose serious challenges not only for specific manufacturers but also for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s overall credibility as a trade partner on the international stage.

It remains unclear how the exact tariff rates were determined. According to The New York Times, the methodology is based on the US trade deficit with a foreign country divided by that country’s exports to the US, raising concerns about transparency and consistency in the process.

While neighbouring countries have responded to the tariffs with varying strategies – from taking a wait-and-see approach to proposing support for vulnerable industries – Bosnia and Herzegovina remains in observation mode. However, it will be crucial to see how quickly and effectively the government can react, especially if the consequences begin to impact one of the country’s most sensitive sectors.

Sources:

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Montenegro
Daughter of US Ambassador Nominee Received Montenegrin Citizenship Under Discreet Circumstances

In 2019, Montenegro quietly granted honorary citizenship to Milena Brnovich, daughter of Mark Brnovich – the man recently nominated by former US President Donald Trump as the next ambassador to Serbia. The decision, made during the presidency of Milo Đukanović, has reignited debates about the lack of transparency surrounding such privileges.

The Ministry of Interior, under then-minister Mevludin Nuhodžić, approved the honorary citizenship on May 3, 2019. The official reasoning cited Milena Brnovich’s fulfilment of legal criteria for citizenship based on “special merit,” though specifics of such merit were not fully outlined. The proposal came less than a month earlier, on April 12, from President Đukanović himself.

According to the decision seen by BIRN, Đukanović praised the Brnovich family’s strong identification with their Montenegrin roots. He also mentioned that Milena, a graduate in marketing and management from Arizona State University and an avid volleyball player, had expressed interest in joining a Montenegrin team.

Mark Brnovich, a former attorney general of Arizona, has long spoken publicly about his Montenegrin heritage. In past interviews, he reflected on his upbringing in a Serbian Orthodox community in the United States and his desire to reconnect with his family’s origins near Podgorica.

“I’m very proud of my cultural background. I grew up bilingual, attended the local St. Sava Church, and passed those values on to my daughters,” Brnovich told Serbian Times. “One day, I hope to return to Montenegro, grow grapes, and make wine – just like my ancestors.”

The decision to award honorary citizenship to Brnovich’s daughter has since drawn attention from civil society groups. The Centre for Civic Education (CGO), a Montenegrin watchdog organisation, flagged the case after obtaining the relevant documentation through a freedom of information request.

The CGO has long criticised Montenegro’s approach to awarding honorary and economic citizenships, warning of its susceptibility to political influence. It has also voiced concern over the continuation of the so-called “golden passport” policy under the current administration, despite European Commission recommendations to discontinue such practices.

The Montenegrin government has not issued any comment regarding Milena Brnovich’s citizenship or the circumstances in which it was granted.

Sources:
Kosovo
Kosovo citizens protesting against the electricity price rise

At the end of March, on March 29, 2025, an unusual incident occurred in Kosovo. As Ymer Fejzullahu, the director of Kosovo’s Energy Regulatory Office (ERO), was getting into his car, he was unexpectedly struck in the face with a cake bearing the number 15. As this act happened, the one who threw the cake said: “This is from the citizens – 15 per cent for you,”. It was an activist from a movement called  Asnje Cent me Shume (that means Not Another Cent).

This incident was one of the protests against the proposed law by which electricity prices would rise by 15%. This proposal has not met any understanding, but quite the opposite among consumers, who have a hard time both economically and socially.

Another wave of discontent was shown by 12  arrested activists on April 2, who protested at the ERO offices. ERO augmented that this price rise is an inevitable consequence of the rise in the price of imported energy on international markets, rising demand and also lack of local production. ERO also stated: “because most countries in the region are net importers, cross-border networks are often overloaded. This leads to increased prices for using cross-border lines for imports”.

Another matter which makes Kosovo citizens unsatisfied is that from June 1, every business with more than 50 employees or more than 10 million EUR in turnover must select its electricity supplier on the open market, which could also lead to another electricity price rise, possibly passed to the consumers.

Sources:

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Serbia
Serbia and Hungary sign a bilateral agreement on military cooperation: 79 joint actions planned

In early April, reports emerged about the conclusion of a military cooperation agreement for 2025 between Hungary and Serbia. Specifically, this agreement was signed by the Serbian Minister of Defence, Bratislav Gašić, and the Hungarian Minister of Defence, Krištof Szalay-Bobrovniczky. Thanks to the agreement, joint activities between Serbia and Hungary will increase this year, namely to 79, while during 2023, the two countries had 48 joint activities.

The creation of this alliance is in response to the recently formed new military alliance signed by Croatia, Albania and Kosovo in Tirana on March 18. Belgrade saw this action as a danger to regional stability as well as the nation’s territorial integrity. The signing of a trilateral pact by Croatia, Albania, and the “so-called Kosovo” is “a provocative move that undermines efforts to strengthen regional security,” according to Serbian Defense Minister Bratislav Gašić. Aleksandar Vučić, the president of Serbia, similarly claimed that the memorandum was a “violation of the Agreement on Sub-Regional Arms Control,” which was signed in 1996 by Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

This partnership between Kosovo, Albania and Croatia requires collaboration within the parameters of the European Union’s security policy and the NATO Strategic Concept. Protecting against foreign cyberattacks and misinformation efforts is the main goal of the Euro-Atlantic integration architecture and also this trilateral alliance. Additionally, it has been reported that Bulgaria was asked to join the project and that the declaration “was open to other countries.” Cooperation between Albania, Croatia and Kosovo includes a higher level of cooperation between the defence industries and the training of soldiers and command officers. Joint military exercises are also planned. The focus within the framework of the Euro-Atlantic integration is to defend against foreign cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns.

In 2007, Serbia adopted the military neutrality policy. Ivana Ranković, researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, emphasises the 2019 Defence Strategy, which states: „military neutrality is ‘a defence interest of the Republic of Serbia’ through which Serbia expresses its commitment ‘not to join military-political alliances, which does not exclude cooperation in the field of defence.“ Therefore, even if a military alliance of some kind were to be formed in the future, it would go against Serbia’s declared military neutrality stance, which further lessens the possibility of such a move, she emphasises.

Sources:
North Macedonia
North Macedonia Targets Free Trade Deal After U.S. Imposes 33% Tariff

North Macedonia intends to eliminate tariffs on US imports, Minister of Finance Gordana Dimitrievska-Kochoska said on April 8. She emphasised that the country ultimately hopes to tackle the issue of newly imposed high tariffs by pursuing a free trade deal with the United States. “We are drafting changes to the Customs Tariff Law that would allow us to lower duties to zero, and this can be done without major consequences for the national budget,” said the minister, voicing confidence that a negotiated solution is possible.

Trade with the US represents less than 1% of North Macedonia’s total international trade, with last year’s exports to the US amounting to just over 100 million EUR. Last week, the United States, under the new administration, imposed a 33% tariff on goods imported from North Macedonia as part of Trump’s broader tariff increases.

The North Macedonian Ministry of Finance claimed that the decision may have been based on incorrect or misleading information, noting that North Macedonia does not apply anything close to a 65% tariff on US products – the figure that seemingly justified the high retaliatory rate. Earlier this week, Skopje’s customs authority clarified that last year’s tariffs on American imports never exceeded 15%.

Looking ahead, Dimitrievska-Kochoska reaffirmed the country’s commitment to pursuing a free trade agreement with the United States, which she believes would offer a lasting resolution to the dispute.

Timcho Mucunski, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, is in ongoing talks with the US officials and hopes for a swift outcome. Prime Minister Hristijan Mickovski, who maintains positive ties with the current US administration, also expressed hope last week that the decision would be reconsidered, adding that he anticipates positive news from his counterpart soon.

North Macedonia primarily trades with the European Union, with Germany as its top trading partner. Approximately 70% of its exports are directed to EU countries.

Together with North Macedonia, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina were hit the hardest by Trump’s new tariffs. The US imposed on Serbia 37%, and Bosnia and Herzegovina got 37%. Neither Belgrade nor Sarajevo commented on this matter.

Sources:

Share This Story, Choose Your Platform!