Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

First half of May 2025

Petra Bošková,  Zuzana Šmilňáková, Matúš Vicen, Kristína Šebová, Lucia Jašková

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Albania
The 2025 Albanian Elections: Edi Rama’s Unprecedented 4th Election Victory and Criticism of OSCE

On May 11, Albania held its first national elections since July 2022, when the country launched accession negotiations with the European Union.

140 MPs were elected by 3.7 million Albanian citizens, and the Albanian diaspora voted for the first time. Approximately 191 thousand voters used the postal vote from abroad. Edi Rama and his Socialist Party recorded an unprecedented fourth electoral victory in a row.

Edi Rama’s party campaigned on the claim that it would secure the country’s membership of the European Union within five years – concluding accession negotiations by 2027 and awaiting the approval of every member state by 2030 – although experts have questioned his optimism, pointing to widespread problems with corruption. Rama’s campaign frequently mentioned improvement in judicial reform and infrastructure. By 2030, his Socialists hope to raise the nation’s wages and pensions for the elderly.However, the Democratic Party of former President and Prime Minister Sali Berisha claims that Albania is not yet ready to join the EU. One of Trump’s advisers worked on his election campaign, which was influenced by the United States and featured a modified version of Donald Trump’s slogan MAGA, or “Make Albania Great Again”. Berisha’s candidacy suffered because of corruption allegations.

Berisha stated at a press conference on May 12, that “election criteria have been mercilessly violated”. He rejected the results and called for protests on May 16, the day European leaders are due to gather for a summit in the capital Tirana. “The May 11 elections were characterised by the most massive public [vote] buying in all of Albania’s electoral history. We are never going to agree with these elections,” Berisha stated.

365 observers from 47 countries monitored the Albanian parliamentary elections. These observers came from the OSCE-PA, experts sent by ODIHR, PACE and the European Parliament. The observers stated that the elections were professionally organised and competitive, as several parties were able to participate. Observers had reservations about the elections, in particular about their fairness, as the election campaign was confrontational and polarising, campaign financing was not sufficiently transparent, the two main political parties used divisive rhetoric, and the ruling party faced accusations of misuse of public funds. International observers, therefore, doubt that the elections were entirely fair, and Albania’s special prosecutor announced that it was looking into 39 election-related crimes, primarily connected to vote buying. The parties that were suspected were not mentioned.

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Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia’s Federation Launches New Anti-Corruption Unit Expected to Tackle Over 400 Cases

A special division recently formed within the Supreme Court and Prosecutor’s Office of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina to combat corruption and organised crime is projected to deal with more than 400 cases. In a significant step toward addressing corruption in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, authorities launched the Special Department for Corruption, Organised, and Inter-Cantonal Crime at the beginning of May.

According to Special Deputy Chief Prosecutor Hrvoje Cabrajic, the newly formed unit will focus on the most serious cases involving organised crime, corruption, terrorism, subversive activities, and crimes targeting the judiciary. He estimated the department will take over between 400 and 450 cases but declined to discuss individual investigations or predict when the first charges might be filed, calling for patience from the public.

President of the Federation Supreme Court, Vesna Stankovic Cosovic, noted that seven judges appointed to the department began their duties a week before. She stressed their role in ensuring impartial rulings and strengthening the quality and efficiency of the criminal justice system. Stankovic Cosovic warned that corruption and organised crime seriously damage a state’s social and economic foundations and pointed out a noticeable rise in such cases across the Federation.

Federation Chief Prosecutor Munib Halilovic emphasised that while the department represents a new direction, its impact will not be immediate. He noted that the unit is still in the process of being fully equipped but expressed optimism that its work will fulfil and surpass the public’s high expectations.

 

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Kosovo
Kosovo’s Political Stalemate Continues as President’s May 15 Meeting Yields No Breakthrough

A month after Kosovo’s parliamentary elections, the country remains stuck in a political deadlock. Despite efforts by President Vjosa Osmani to mediate between party leaders, no agreement has been reached on electing a new speaker of parliament.

On May 15, President Osmani met with the leaders of the four major political parties—Albin Kurti (Vetevendosje), Memli Krasniqi (Democratic Party of Kosovo, PDK), Lumir Abdixhiku (Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK), and Ramush Haradinaj (Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, AAK)—in an attempt to resolve the impasse that has persisted since the February 9 elections.

Vetevendosje, the winning party, insists that acting Minister of Justice Albulena Haxhiu should take the role of parliamentary speaker. Opposition parties continue to block the nomination, preventing the formation of a functioning legislature.

President Osmani warned that the crisis is undermining constitutional order and could have far-reaching consequences. She pointed to delays in receiving 900 million EUR from the EU’s Growth Plan, disruptions in Kosovo’s efforts to join international organisations, and the weakening of public trust and international credibility.

Although no solution emerged from the meeting, Osmani announced that talks would continue next week. She also outlined two possible paths: either members of parliament request a review by the Constitutional Court, or she will do so herself. According to Osmani, none of the party leaders objected to involving the court.

While Prime Minister Kurti did not speak to reporters after the meeting, PDK leader Krasniqi reiterated his call for Vetevendosje to nominate a different candidate who could secure majority support. LDK leader Abdixhiku criticised the lack of urgency from Kurti and said that neither the president nor the leading party presented a way forward. Haradinaj of AAK indicated his party would support a consensus candidate to help move to the next phase.

Although Kosovo’s Constitutional Court has not set a deadline for parliament’s inauguration, the legal framework requires MPs to meet every 48 hours until a speaker is elected. The next session was scheduled for May 17, which ended without progress in the effort to elect a new speaker of parliament. The Vetëvendosje (VV) movement’s candidate, Albulena Haxhiu, received only 57 votes, insufficient to reach the required majority of 61. Opposition parties continue to reject her nomination, thereby blocking the formation of a new legislative body.

This latest failure means that Kosovo remains in a political stalemate that has persisted since the February 9, 2025, elections. Without an elected speaker, the process of forming a new government cannot move forward, which negatively affects the functioning of state institutions and public trust.

The next parliamentary session is scheduled for May 19, 2025, but it remains unclear whether political parties will shift their positions or whether a new candidate will be proposed who could gain majority support.

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Montenegro
Montenegro’s NATO Membership: Strategic Leap, Economic Gains Still Elusive

When Montenegro joined NATO in 2017, many expected not only a boost in national security but also a new wave of economic opportunities. While the country’s international profile has certainly improved, the tangible economic benefits of alliance membership remain underwhelming.

NATO accession did bring a level of political and investment stability, which reassured some foreign investors. However, these gains have not translated into broader economic transformation. Montenegro still leans heavily on tourism as its economic backbone, and efforts to expand into other sectors have been slow and inconsistent.

Officials in Podgorica have pointed to potential upsides of NATO membership, including eligibility for alliance-related procurement contracts and improved investor confidence. But to truly take advantage of these opportunities, Montenegro needs to step up structural reforms, invest in infrastructure, and streamline its regulatory environment to become more business-friendly.

In short, while NATO has helped strengthen Montenegro’s geopolitical position, its full economic promise remains largely untapped. The coming years will show whether the country can transform strategic alignment into long-term economic prosperity.

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Serbia
Vučić Visits Moscow Amidst the Ongoing Anti-Corruption Protests

Despite criticism coming from the EU leaders, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić attended the Russian Victory Day commemoration in Moscow on Friday, May 9. Meanwhile, in Serbia, students organised a large protest in the city of Loznica, where they showed their discontent over the planned opening of a lithium mine. Several protests are planned ahead of the three-day governmental National Assembly in Niš.

Several EU representatives expressed concerns over Vučić’s visit to Moscow. Although the EU’s High Representative Kaja Kallas voiced a positive opinion regarding the fact that the Serbian military was not directly participating in Moscow’s military parade, she also said that the Member States were not taking this lightly and would discuss further steps. Two Member States, namely Lithuania and Estonia, forbade the Serbian and Slovak governmental planes from crossing their airspaces on their way to Moscow. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos agreed that the EU institutions will take note of the visit.

In Moscow, Vučić met with China’s President Xi Jinping, with whom they discussed new Chinese investments for Serbia. Later, Vučić also met with the hosting Russian President, Vladimir Putin. The topic of discussion was a political situation in the Western Balkans, but also the gas and energy sector, since Serbia is highly dependent on Russia.

In Serbia, the Victory over Fascism Day, or the Day of Europe, was celebrated by another round of student protests. The protest, which was held in Loznica in the west of Serbia, was organised in opposition to a planned opening of a lithium mine in the Serbian Jadar Valley. Protesters called for the revocation of the mining plan as well as the punishment of those responsible for the death of 16 people in the Novi Sad railway station tragedy. In May, students added another demand to their list as they called for snap parliamentary elections.

On Saturday, May 17, several protests were announced in Serbia, namely in the cities of Subotica, Novi Sad and Niš. The southern city of Niš will be hosting a three-day National Assembly, during which President Vučić is expected to be the main speaker.

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North Macedonia
North Macedonia Joins Countries in Support of the Initiative “Tribunal for Putin”

North Macedonia is so far the only Western Balkan country that has joined the new initiative that aims to hold Russian high officials accountable for the war and crimes committed against Ukraine. This initiative was launched on May 9, 2025, after the joint agreement between the Council of Europe and Ukraine. From the start, it has the support of 40 countries, and other countries, including North Macedonia, are joining. The final form is still unclear, but the initiative is similar to the Nuremberg trial, which also started as an initiative of the few victorious countries in WW2 and turned into an international trial supported by the UN.

North Macedonian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Timcho Mutsunski, announced the support of the initiative during the official visit to Lviv with European officials. At the meeting with the officials, the creation of the initiative was confirmed. Mutsunski also declared strong support for Ukraine and called for the “immediate and unconditional ceasefire by Russia and a joint commitment to achieving a just and lasting peace”.

He proclaimed that North Macedonia fully support the initiative because it respect the international and humanitarian law and stated that “The reason our country is becoming part of this process, and what our citizens should know, is that respect for international public law and international humanitarian law is one of the key and most important tools, especially for small countries like ours”.

According to the European officials the Tribunal could officially start on May 14, 2025 in Luxemburg and it may issue judgements in absentia and will take effect after the officials lose their positions because the top officials like Putin or Lavrov that are responsible for the act of aggression against Ukraine are protected by the so-called “Head of State immunity”.

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