Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Second half of May 2025

Petra Bošková,  Matúš Vicen, Lucia Jašková, Kristína Piknová

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Albania
Tirana and London fail to agree on a joint stance on migration

On May 15, the British Prime Minister met with newly elected Prime Minister Edi Rama in Tirana, Albania.
During a visit to Albania, Keir Starmer disclosed plans to transport rejected asylum applicants to „return hubs“ in third countries, while the Balkan nation denied taking part in the program.

Rama was eager to show his appreciation for the first visit to Albania by a prime minister from the United Kingdom. He said it was an honor and that he looked forward to the two nations‘ relationship growing stronger. Perhaps not as near as Keir would have preferred, though, as Edi was quick to note that Albania was not amenable to serving as a processing center for the repatriation of illegal immigrants and undesired asylum seekers from other nations.


Since January, more than 12,000 people have crossed the Channel, setting 2025 as a record year. „We are in talks with a number of countries about return hubs,“ Sir Keir and Prime Minister Edi Rama of Albania stated during a press conference. „I see them as a really important innovation.“ Albania, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are among the nations in the Western Balkans which are the focus of the plans.


Only asylum seekers whose claims had been denied and who had no other options for appeal in the UK would be included in the proposals. It is not the same as the Rwanda plan of the last Conservative government, which Sir Keir abandoned and which envisaged sending migrants to the African nation to have their asylum claims handled.


Similar plans are in place in Italy, where unsuccessful asylum seekers are sent to Albania pending deportation; however, judicial action has halted that plan. Rama claimed that the plan was „a one-off with Italy because of our very special relationship“ during the press conference. According to Rama, a number of nations had questioned the Albanian government about its interest in launching comparable programs.

„We declined, since we are devoted to our marriage with Italy, and such arrangements do not align with our values nor our role in the region,“ he said.

Despite the diplomatic tone, the joint press conference highlighted a clear divergence in approach. While Starmer emphasized the innovation and necessity of return hubs to manage migration flows and alleviate domestic pressures, Rama reaffirmed Albania’s position as a country of transit and reform — not as a holding ground for Europe’s migration challenges. The meeting concluded without a firm agreement, underscoring the complexity of forging regional consensus on migration management in a post-Rwanda-plan Europe.

Sources:
  • GOV.UK: PM meeting with Prime Minister Rama of Albania: 15 May 2025https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-meeting-with-prime-minister-rama-of-albania-15-may-2025 Grace, John.
  • The Guardian: Starmer reveals plans to send refused asylum seekers to overseas ‘return hubs’https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/15/keir-starmer-tirana-tories-flag
  • Nevett, Joshua. BBC: UK in talks to send failed asylum seekers abroadhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8re55z8kv7o
Bosnia and Herzegovina
New Legal Step Against Femicide Adopted in Federation Parliament

The Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina has adopted amendments to the Criminal Code, introducing gender-based murder—femicide as a specific crime category. The legal change, passed on May 29, 2025, comes as a response to growing public pressure and alarming statistics of violence against women in the country. Amendments are yet to be adopted by the House of People.

According to available data, over 60 women in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been killed by current or former partners in the last six years. This amounts to an average of at least one woman murdered per month, a number that civil society and women’s rights organisations have described as deeply concerning.

This legislative step follows earlier reforms passed in February 2025, when the Federation Parliament adopted a new Law on Protection from Domestic Violence. That law, aligned with the Istanbul Convention, seeks to strengthen the institutional response and legal support for victims of domestic abuse. Despite recent progress, critics have long accused state authorities of negligence and inadequate legal protections in the face of femicide cases. The issue gained renewed attention after a widely reported femicide was live-streamed on social media in 2023. A year later, in August 2024, activists warned that no substantial reforms had followed. Similarly, the murder of a woman in Sarajevo in late 2023 led to renewed public outcry and demands for harsher penalties and more systemic prevention mechanisms.

The new amendments aim to close legal loopholes and allow for the classification of femicide as a distinct offence rather than being treated as a generic homicide. Women’s rights organisations and legal experts welcomed the change but also stressed that adopting the law is only the first step. The key challenge remains the effective implementation of the law, along with adequate training for police, judiciary, and social services to identify and respond to threats of gender-based violence. The amendments mark a significant milestone in the fight against femicide in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but human rights organisations underline that progress will be measured not by the letter of the law but by its enforcement in practice.

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Kosovo
EU’s Kallas Urges Serbia and Kosovo to Back Up Dialogue Commitments with Real Action

On May 21, during her first official visit to Belgrade and Pristina as the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas called on both Serbia and Kosovo to turn promises into progress, stressing that normalised relations are essential for any forward movement on their path to EU integration.

In press statements delivered during her two-day tour, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy underscored that the 2023 Ohrid Agreement—brokered between Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic—must now translate into tangible steps.

“Dialogue is not optional,” Kallas said, warning that the road to a stable and prosperous Balkans depends on de-escalation and genuine cooperation. “For Serbia, normalisation isn’t just about improving relations—it’s a prerequisite for any real progress towards the European Union,” she added.

The diplomatic visit comes amid a lengthy freeze in direct talks. The last time both leaders sat at the negotiation table was in September 2023. A high-level push in mid-2024, led by the previous EU administration, failed to restart the process. Attempts by European heavyweights—including France, Germany, and Italy—in late 2023 also fell short of securing a commitment to implement the agreement, particularly regarding the contested creation of an Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities in Kosovo.

Kallas, speaking in Belgrade, announced her intention to invite both parties to Brussels soon. “The time for vague commitments is over. We want to see real movement,” she stated. Following her meeting with Serbian officials, including Prime Minister Djuro Macut and President Vucic, Serbia’s government reiterated its commitment to European integration. But Kallas emphasised that declarations alone won’t suffice. “We need to see real reforms, not just box-checking,” she told journalists, highlighting the need for concrete progress in media freedom, anti-corruption efforts, and electoral transparency.

In addition to government officials, Kallas also held talks with opposition leaders, civil society representatives, and young people in Serbia. While in Pristina, Kallas encouraged Kosovo’s leadership to end the ongoing parliamentary impasse and focus on forming a stable government. “Kosovo’s future lies in Europe, but there are no shortcuts. Reform is the only way forward,” she said. She also confirmed that the EU would begin phasing out restrictive measures imposed on Kosovo in mid-2023 during a period of heightened tensions in northern Serb-majority areas. These included suspensions of high-level contacts and financial cooperation.

However, she cautioned that any easing of EU pressure depends on Kosovo demonstrating sustained de-escalation in the north. “The dismantling of Serbia-backed institutions in northern Kosovo by the Kurti government, while significant, must not be allowed to derail broader efforts toward stability,” she warned.

While no timeline was given, Kallas framed the lifting of measures as an opportunity for Kosovo to deepen its European ties—if calm is maintained.

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Montenegro
Montenegro Races to Regulate AI Amid Rising Threats

As artificial intelligence spreads across sectors in Montenegro—from banking to tourism to public services—concerns are mounting over its misuse, especially in disinformation and politics.

A deepfake video showing a church leader in a compromising situation recently went viral, raising alarms about how AI can be used to spread false narratives. “AI makes it easier than ever to manipulate public opinion,” warned digital policy expert Snezana Nikcevic.

The government plans to adopt a national AI strategy by the end of the year based on the EU’s AI Act. Officials say it will define key sectors, set priorities, and introduce risk safeguards. But experts say that aligning with EU standards alone won’t be enough.

“There’s no oversight of which technologies are used or how,” said Marko Banovic from the Digital Forensic Centre. “That gap leaves room for serious abuse.”

While businesses and public services already use AI tools—from financial bots to chatbots and document processing—regulations are lagging far behind.

Experts call for laws that go beyond compliance, emphasising transparency, digital literacy, and protection from manipulation. Nikcevic adds, “We need AI rules that support innovation but also protect democracy.”

 

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Serbia
Serbia Joins SEPA: Key Step Toward EU Integration and Easier Euro Payments Abroad

The European Commission welcomed Serbia’s inclusion in the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), noting that it will facilitate EUR payments abroad for Serbian citizens and described it as a clear demonstration of the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans delivering results. Serbia has officially joined the SEPA following approval from the European Payments Council (EPC). The Commission praised the move, describing it as a practical example of the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans in action.

Finance Minister Siniša Mali announced that the change is expected to be implemented in Serbia by May 2026. He stated that SEPA membership will allow Serbian citizens to make EUR transactions with SEPA countries – including all EU member states – more efficiently, quickly, and at a lower cost. An expert on Serbia’s EU integration process, Bojana Selakovic, said that it is a very important step toward European membership.

SEPA ensures that all EUR transactions within the Eurozone are treated the same as domestic payments. The Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, introduced by the European Commission in November 2024, seeks to bring Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia closer to the EU single market. Serbia will join Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Moldova, which joined last November. SEPA payment schemes now extend across 41 countries.

The plan also focuses on enhancing regional economic ties, pushing forward EU-related reforms, and boosting pre-accession financial support to speed up the socio-economic integration of the Western Balkans within the European Union

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North Macedonia
North Macedonia-UK Deal Raises Questions Over Migration Motives

On May 16, North Macedonia’s Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski hailed a new strategic partnership with the UK as a path to an “investment revolution,” but speculation is growing that it may come with a controversial price: hosting UK-bound migrants.

The deal, set to be signed in London, could bring up to £5 billion in favourable loans for infrastructure projects—railways, hospitals, dormitories, and more. But some observers fear it may involve turning North Macedonia into a “migrant return hub.”

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the partnership aims to tackle “shared challenges,” including migration and security. It builds on North Macedonia’s recent inclusion in the Joint Migration Taskforce to combat illegal transit across the Balkans.

Still, former foreign minister Denko Maleski questioned the UK’s true motives: “We know what we need—money and investment. But what exactly does Britain want from us?” Concerns deepened after UK media reported that London was eyeing Balkan countries—including North Macedonia—as potential sites for offshore migrant processing after Albania refused.

Asked about migrant centres, British ambassador Matthew Lawson said it was “not about that”—but added ambiguously, “that’s a different story.” Despite the controversy, Britain remains one of North Macedonia’s top trading partners, with bilateral trade reaching €2.5 billion last year.

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