Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Second half of November 2025

Petra Bošková, Igor Píš, Ema Valachová, Henrieta Vengrínová, Lucia Jašková, Dominika Dragúňová,  Terézia Hlačinová

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Albania
All Six Negotiation Clusters Opened: Albania’s Ambition Moves Closer to EU Membership

Albania’s goal of becoming a member of the European Union is getting closer. On November 17, 2025, the last remaining chapter of the six so-called negotiation clusters was opened, covering agriculture and fisheries, food safety, and cohesion policy. Over the course of 13 months, Albania managed to open all six clusters and negotiate 33 negotiation chapters, which is an unprecedented and very ambitious achievement.

Prime Minister Edi Rama described this achievement as extraordinary and emphasised that Albania “will do everything in its power to move forward with the same intensity, discipline, and dedication.” Rama expects that Albania could become an EU member by the end of 2030. His determination and hard work make him a credible international leader for the EU, earning increasing recognition among European institutions. Edi Rama does not let Albania be defined by its past but focuses on the future and on solutions for the country.

According to Marta Kos, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, the coming years will be years of truth, as opening the chapters is only the first step; real progress will be measured by the implementation of reforms, particularly in the areas of the rule of law, judicial independence, and the fight against corruption. Opening all negotiation clusters is a significant step forward, but Albania must ensure that the chapters are successfully closed in order to move closer to EU membership.

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Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia’s Republika Srpska Elects Siniša Karan President after Dodik’s Removal

After a snap presidential election in Republika Srpska, which took place on November 23, Sinisa Karan was elected as the new president of this Serbian-dominated entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Karan, the candidate supported by ousted president Milorad Dodik’s ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), was announced as the frontrunner, prompting celebrations among his supporters.

The opposition dismissed the results, accusing the SNSD of yet another episode of election manipulation, something they say happens during every vote in Republika Srpska. SNSD officials argue the outcome shows that foreign influence and the Office of the High Representative, responsible for implementing the Dayton Peace Agreement, are unwelcome in Republika Srpska.

According to the latest unofficial data from the Central Election Commission, Siniša Karan (SNSD) received about 217,000 votes, while the opposition’s Branko Blanuša got about 209,000. With the 8,000-vote gap, Dodik claimed victory. However, there are numerous fraud complaints which are under review, which might result in recounts or partial revoting. Specifically, the opposition parties call for revoting in at least three municipalities: Laktasi, Doboj and Zvornik.

The elections took place after Dodik’s termination of a mandate due to his conviction after not complying with the High Representative’s decision – a six-year ban on holding public office. This happened after the long-running conflict between Dodik and Christian Schmidt, the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Under the Dayton Peace Agreement, Schmidt has the authority to impose or annul laws. Dodik implemented two laws in Republika Srpska, both blocked by Schmidt. First, one should’ve prevented the enforcement of state-level Constitutional Court rulings in the Serbian entity, and the other should’ve amended legislation on publishing official acts. Bosnia’s Constitutional Court suspended both at the end of May.

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Montenegro
Montenegro Appointed a New Judge to the Constitutional Court. Voting Follows Uncertain Judicial Situation

The Parliament of Montenegro appointed a new judge of the Constitutional Court. Jovan Jovanović received 50 votes, which was enough for him to secure the required majority. To be elected, a candidate must obtain a minimum of 49 votes from the MPs of the parliament. The other two candidates received only 47 and 45 votes.

Jovanović’s appointment comes after a severe political and constitutional crisis at the end of last year. In December 2024 Montenegrin parliament unilaterally terminated the mandate of Dragana Đuranović, a member of the Constitutional Court. This decision was made based on the Law on Pension and Disability Insurance, which establishes the retirement age at the age of 65 and at least 15 years of service or upon 40 years of service and reaching the age of 61.

The opposition, however, called this action a constitutional coup. They argued that judges had preserved the retirement age of 66 and a minimum of 15 years of service by voting for it by a majority. This situation escalated into a blockade of the Montenegrin parliament by the opposition.

As a result of the involvement of the European Union, the largest ruling party, Europe Now Movement, and the main opposition party, Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro, signed an agreement. Finally, after a few months, the Venice Commission reopened the process of selecting new judges. The Montenegrin Constitutional Court still has two remaining free seats.

The EU expressed its worries about the independence of the Constitutional Court and the principle of separation of powers in Montenegro in its latest Commission Report from November 2025. In fact, the Venice Commission confirmed that the decision to terminate Đuranović’s mandate was not in line with the Constitution. Nevertheless, Montenegro remains the frontrunner in the EU accession process in the Western Balkans.

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Kosovo
State of Media Freedom and Safety of Journalists in Kosovo

Kosovo maintains a diverse and balanced media landscape, supporting its democratic commitment. Media freedom is guaranteed by law and strictly monitored by the Media Commission, ensuring high ethical and professional standards.

Even though Kosovo´s Constitution ensures the right to freedom of expression and information, in the autumn of 2025, the situation relating to media freedom and the safety of journalists in Kosovo has significantly worsened. According to the World Press Freedom Index, Kosovo ranks 99th this year, down 24 places from last year. The ranking was formed by RSF (Reporters Without Borders). This decline is largely caused by rising digital abuse, which seriously threatens journalists´ work.

This worsening situation has been ongoing since 2023, and is linked to political tensions, particularly following the appointment of Albanian mayors in four Serb-majority municipalities. Journalists are systematically exposed to online attacks, cyberbullying and death threats, often through campaigns on Telegram and other social networks, where attackers use pseudonyms. The most common forms of digital attacks include hacking, phishing, and surveillance, and particularly for female journalists, the publication of personal data (called doxxing).

These forms of attacks disrupt normal workflows and endanger the lives of journalists. Even after knowing this fact, Xhemajl Rexha (the head of the Association of Journalists of Kosovo) claims that many journalists disregard these attacks, mostly because they do not know how to react (due to a lack of knowledge). Milica Radovanovic (from the North Mitrovica New Social Initiative – NSI) identifies insufficient funding of Serbian-language media as the main problem. They rely mostly on short-term project-based support, weakening long-term stability, survival and staff security.

Cybersecurity expert Besnik Limaj highlighted that expensive and modern technologies are not necessary to improve this situation, but stressed that improvement would require raising awareness and providing basic digital security training (strong passwords, two-factor authentication, encrypted communication). He also called for digital security training. The Council of Europe recommended comprehensive national prevention, legal measures, and coordination at the institutional level to strengthen protection against such digital threats, but Kosovo’s non-membership makes implementation difficult.

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Serbia
NIS Sanctioned: Serbia’s Russian Oil Dilemma

The US imposition of sanctions on Serbia’s sole crude oil refiner, NIS (Naftna Industrija Srbije), came into effect in October 2025, after a special operating license from the US Treasury was not extended following eight delays. The sanctions, implemented by OFAC (US Office of Foreign Assets Control), target the Russian ownership of NIS, specifically Kremlin-controlled Gazprom neft, which holds 44,9%. The primary objective of these sanctions is to prevent the financing of Russia’s war in Ukraine by energy companies.

This move has caused a political and energy crisis in Serbia, a country heavily dependent on Russian energy. Serbia has so far refused to join Western sanctions against Russia. Industry experts warn of negative consequences, including higher gasoline prices, mainly because NIS supplies 80% of Serbia’s diesel and petrol fuels. Furthermore, banks have been warned that continuing transactions with NIS could lead to their own sanctioning. The destabilising economic impact could accelerate the weakening of Russian influence in Serbia and potentially lead to the defeat of the ruling party if prices rise sharply.

In response to this crisis, President Aleksandar Vučić announced a 50-day deadline on November 25, 2025, for Gazprom and Gazprom Neft to find a buyer for their holdings. Vučić has requested that the US Treasury grant a temporary license for the 50-day period. If the Russian side fails to reach a purchase agreement, Serbia plans to introduce its own management of the company, though Vučić rejected immediate nationalisation. Potential buyers include “friends from the UAE, Hungary and other countries”.

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North Macedonia
What 2025 Reveals About North Macedonia’s Democratic Resilience

North Macedonia is facing serious problems in its government and society. The country wants to be democratic and join the European Union, but its institutions are weak, transparency is low, and governance often fails. Three recent events show this clearly. First, the European Commission’s 2025 report said that reforms in the country are stuck. Second, important government archives were removed from official websites without explanation. Third, mass protests broke out after a deadly fire in a nightclub. Together, these events reveal a deeper crisis that threatens the country’s stability and its EU ambitions. The European Commission’s report shows that key reforms, including those in the courts, public administration, and anti-corruption efforts, are not moving forward. Political leaders often focus on short-term goals instead of real institutional reforms. This gap between promises and action reduces people’s trust in the government and lowers the EU’s confidence in North Macedonia.

At the same time, the removal of government archives makes transparency worse. Without access to these records, journalists and watchdog groups cannot monitor the government properly. This raises concerns that officials are not committed to accountability and open governance. The nightclub fire demonstrates the human cost of weak institutions. Investigations suggest that safety rules were ignored, permits may have been corrupted, and enforcement was weak. The public protests that followed show that citizens are no longer willing to accept governance failures that endanger their lives. All these problems together show that North Macedonia has politicised institutions, inconsistent rules, and a culture where transparency is optional rather than essential. To improve, the country needs to make government records public, remove politics from oversight bodies, strengthen audits, and fight corruption fairly. Without these changes, public frustration will grow, and the country’s credibility with the EU will be at risk. The events of 2025 are a clear warning. Weak governance is not just an abstract problem, it is a real threat to the country’s stability. How North Macedonia responds now will decide both its future in the EU and the strength of its democracy.



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