Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Review of December 2025

Petra Bošková, Igor Píš, Ema Valachová, Henrieta Vengrínová, Terézia Hlačinová, Dominika Dragúňová, Lea Bellušová

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Albania
Prime Minister Edi Rama Faces Accusations of Pressuring the Judicial System 

The recent confrontation between the Albanian government and the judiciary has escalated following the suspension of Deputy Prime Minister and Infrastructure Minister Belinda Balluku on November 21 by the Special Court for Organised Crime and Corruption. In order to prevent her from fleeing the country, the court also imposed a travel ban by blocking her passport.

Balluku, who is currently facing accusations of interfering in public procurement procedures, has denied the allegations, calling them false and unfounded. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister´s actions have once again raised questions about the independence of the judicial system.

Following her suspension, Prime Minister Edi Rama requested that the Constitutional Court annul the decision. This court is expected to take place on December 12. Since the suspension, Rama has criticised the suspend, describing it as “a unique and dangerous precedent” and calling the concept of suspension “absurd”.

This is not the first time Rama has publicly criticised the judiciary. Over recent months, he has repeatedly targeted judges and prosecutors, using language that has drawn additional criticism. Rama has dismissed claims that he is exerting pressure on the judicial system.

The Judges Association stated that it has been following Rama’s comments with concern. According to the Association, his remarks send an implicit message to the judicial bodies handling the case. They warn that such statements contribute to public distrust in the judiciary and may serve as a pretext for further weakening it. In addition to the response of the Judges Association, the opposition also voiced its opinion, demanding the resignation of the Prime Minister. The opposition accused the Prime Minister of presiding over a government eroded by systemic corruption.

Rama rejected the Association’s concerns as exaggerated, arguing that he has the right to express his views. He also indicated he is not intimidated by criticism, stating: “It would be wrong to expect me to remain silent and not share my opinion with the public.“

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Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnian Court Upholds Acquittal of Former Presidency Member Borislav Paravac & Radioactive Waste Facility Near Bosnian Border

The Bosnian state court has confirmed the acquittal of Borislav Paravac, a former Serb member of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency, clearing him of responsibility for wartime crimes committed in 1992 in the Doboj and Teslić areas. The appeals chamber also upheld the acquittals of co-defendants Andrija Bjelošević and Milan Savić. Defence lawyer Miodrag Stojanović said the prosecution’s appeal was rejected in full, making the verdict final.

Paravac served as the Serb member of the state presidency from 2003 to 2006 and was a member of the Serb Democratic Party, which governed the Republika Srpska entity for much of the post-war period. In a first-instance verdict delivered in August 2024, the court acquitted the defendants of charges including murder, unlawful detention, forcible displacement of Bosniak and Croat civilians, attacks on settlements, torture, pillage and destruction of religious sites. The court ruled that prosecutors failed to prove that Paravac, as president of the Doboj Crisis Committee, and Bjelošević, then head of the Doboj police’s Public Security Centre, participated in a joint criminal enterprise or knowingly contributed to plans that relied on systematic violations of international humanitarian law. The judgment is final and cannot be appealed.

Meanwhile, Croatia’s parliament has passed a law creating a regulatory framework for the construction of a radioactive waste disposal facility for waste from the Krško Nuclear Power Plant in Slovenia, as well as waste produced by Croatian hospitals and industry. The preferred site is Cerkezovac on Trgovska Gora, just three kilometres from the border with Bosnia and Herzegovina, sparking concerns across the border, particularly for the nearby Una National Park. Croatia and Slovenia jointly built the Krško plant in the 1970s, and Croatia now receives about 16 per cent of its electricity from it. Under a bilateral agreement, Croatia is responsible for disposing of half of the plant’s low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The new law sets out planning rules, environmental impact assessment procedures and conditions for approving the project, including the use of reconstructed former Yugoslav army facilities.

Environmental groups in Croatia acknowledge the need for a domestic waste disposal site but criticise the lack of transparency and public consultation. Activists and officials in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially in the nearby town of Novi Grad, warn that the location poses environmental risks and accuse Croatia of ignoring BIH concerns. Bosnian representatives say the dispute may now have to be resolved at the international level.

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Montenegro
Montenegro and EU Enlargement Dynamics

Montenegro’s involvement in the EU expansion debate has attracted increasing attention recently. It is no longer just another candidate but a key test for the EU’s commitments. This situation could significantly impact regional security and unity in the Balkans. Prime Minister Milojko Spajić has strongly voiced his goal for Montenegro to join the EU by 2028, regardless of the readiness of neighbouring countries. This raises questions about Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who supports a plan for all Western Balkan countries to join together.

Montenegro’s proactive stance demonstrates clear strategic intentions, supported by progress reports indicating it could complete several negotiation chapters by year’s end, a notable change after prolonged stagnation. Meanwhile, Serbia faces difficulties in opening new negotiation chapters due to disagreements among EU member states on the next steps. This shift signifies a move toward focusing on the individual progress of each country rather than a regional approach.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has suggested that discussions about an accession agreement might happen soon. Such developments could define Montenegro’s future and highlight the EU’s commitment to the region. Montenegro may become a key test case for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans. If the EU proceeds with stages like drafting an accession treaty, it would acknowledge Montenegro’s progress and be willing to reward it. The contrasting paths of Montenegro and Serbia reveal the complexities of accession. While the EU seeks stability, the current circumstances suggest traditional membership timelines may no longer be feasible. Montenegro’s pursuit underscores the evolving approach to EU expansion, focusing more on individual achievement. Overall, Montenegro’s bid for EU membership holds significance for both the Western Balkans and the EU. As the 2028 deadline nears, it will become clear whether Montenegro’s EU accession will result in genuine progress or prove to be another missed opportunity.

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Kosovo
Investigation of the Explosion of the Iber-Lepenc Canal Continues. Kosovo Indicts Three People for the Attack

At the beginning of December, Kosovo’s Special Prosecution notified the public that it had filed an indictment for terrorism, espionage and weapons-related charges against two brothers and an alleged Serbian intelligence collaborator over the November 2024 explosion that severely damaged the Iber-Lepenc water canal and disrupted vital water and energy infrastructure.

The explosion occurred in one of the troubled regions in the North of Kosovo. The damaged Iber-Lepenc canal played a crucial role in the country’s water supply and, at the same time, provided cooling for two major power plants. These plants generate most of Kosovo’s electricity.

Shortly after the incident, Prime Minister Albin Kurti accused Serbia, its neighbour, of destroying the canal. “This is a criminal and terrorist attack aimed at damaging our critical infrastructure,” Kurti said at a press conference.

The attack led to numerous arrests and the seizure of weapons and explosives. However, only this month has the investigation led to more serious steps. „The indictment alleges that the two brothers and another unidentified person, after a prior agreement, planted approximately 20 kilograms of trinitrotoluene, TNT explosive, inside the canal,“ informs Balkan Insight.

One of the accused is believed to be Igor Dimović, who is allegedly affiliated with the Serbian military intelligence service. According to the prosecution, he assisted the attack by gathering classified information and documents to support unlawful activities in Kosovo. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has denied that Belgrade had any involvement in the attack.

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Serbia
Controversial Belgrade Redevelopment Sparks Public Debate and Legal Scrutiny

On December 15, 2025, public debate in Serbia intensified significantly over the reconstruction of the former General Staff complex of the Yugoslav People’s Army in central Belgrade. What was initially presented as a project aimed at modern urban renewal gradually became a symbol of a broader conflict between the government, the rule of law, and civil society.

The General Staff buildings rank among the most prominent examples of post-war modernist architecture in Serbia and also serve as a powerful symbol of NATO’s bombing of Belgrade in 1999. For many years, they held the status of a protected cultural monument, which meant they were shielded from major construction interventions. It was precisely this protective status that became the central point of contention.

The Serbian government concluded a 99-year lease agreement for the site with Affinity Global Development, a company linked to American businessman Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of former United States President Donald Trump. The project, valued at approximately $500 million (around €460 million), envisioned the construction of a luxury hotel, residential buildings, office space, and commercial facilities. However, for the project to proceed in its planned form, the cultural heritage protection status of the complex had to be removed.

According to allegations, Selaković and other officials unlawfully revoked the site’s protected status through manipulated documentation. The project also enjoys strong support from the government of President Aleksandar Vučić, as illustrated by his statement on December 11: “I will not give them the opportunity to prosecute those who are not guilty of anything. I am guilty. I am the one who wanted to modernise Serbia. I am the one who wanted to bring a big investor.” He further indicated that, should indictments be brought in connection with the removal of the cultural monument status of the General Staff complex in Belgrade, he would use his authority to grant pardons to those suspected of embezzlement in the case.

Nevertheless, both the project itself and the controversies surrounding it have provoked strong opposition from experts in Serbia and abroad, as well as from a significant part of the Serbian public.

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North Macedonia
North Macedonia Seeks Accountability for Fatal Nightclub Fire

In March 2025, a severe fire at Club Pulse in Kočani, North Macedonia, killed 63 individuals, most of whom were young people. The tragedy, which injured over 200 people, occurred when sparks from pyrotechnics used by hip-hop group DNK torched the club’s flammable ceiling. The investigation found that the building was overcrowded, and many victims were unable to escape because the back door was shut, leaving only one proper exit functional.

The trial of 35 people and three institutions began in November. Defendants include the club’s owner, Dejan Jovanov, three former Kočani mayors, former state inspectors, and state officials. Prosecutors claim that the disaster was caused by years of institutional failings, unlawfully issued licenses, and a lack of accountability. Prosecutor Borče Janev noted that the venue had been a “death trap” for over a decade.

All defendants, however, have pleaded not guilty to the allegations. The club owner claimed he was unaware of any safety violations, and his defence attorneys argued that relevant institutions should have been held accountable for conducting routine safety checks. The complex trial is projected to endure “five months or five years” due to many defendants and an enormous amount of evidence.

This tragedy demonstrates the catastrophic results of years of systemic institutional failures, corruption, and a severe lack of responsibility concerning public safety enforcement in North Macedonia.

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