Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Review of January 2026

Petra Bošková, Igor Píš, Ema Valachová, Henrieta Vengrínová, Terézia Hlačinová, Dominika Dragúňová, Lea Bellušová

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Bosnia and Herzegovina
 Political Tensions, Electoral Disputes and Cross-Border Challenges Mark Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Start of 2026

Bosnia and Herzegovina entered 2026 amid renewed political tensions, unresolved electoral disputes and growing cross-border challenges, highlighting the country’s continued institutional fragility and its exposure to broader regional and European dynamics.

The year began with renewed controversy in Republika Srpska, where Bosnian Serb authorities once again marked January 9, the so-called “Republika Srpska Day”. The public celebration took place despite a long-standing ruling by the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina declaring the holiday unconstitutional and prohibiting its official observance. The central event was a parade in Banja Luka, the administrative centre of the entity, attended by several thousand participants, including war veterans, police units and civilians.

The celebrations took place just over two weeks after the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CEC BiH) annulled part of the results of the Republika Srpska presidential election. On December 25, the Commission ruled that voting at 136 polling stations must be repeated due to serious irregularities, including vote manipulation, forged signatures and the use of invalid identification documents.

The original elections, held on November 23, produced a narrow margin between the two leading candidates. Crucially, the number of votes cast at the disputed polling stations exceeded the margin of victory, meaning that the repeat vote could influence the final outcome. While the Commission’s decision may still be appealed, it was justified as a necessary step to protect the integrity of the electoral process. Repeat voting is expected to take place on February 8.

Beyond electoral issues, domestic debates have also intensified around the regulation of emerging strategic technologies, particularly unmanned aerial vehicles. The Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations, Staša Košarac, recently revoked the licence of BNT – Tvornica Mašina i Hidraulike from Novi Travnik to manufacture drones. The decision followed inspections that uncovered violations of legislation governing the production of weapons and military equipment.

According to the authorities, discrepancies were identified between the technical parameters approved in the company’s prototype application and the actual characteristics of the drones produced. In addition, the company reportedly continued production after its licence had expired and failed to inform the competent authorities in advance of changes to the technical specifications. The ministry has announced plans to initiate misdemeanour proceedings against the company and the responsible individuals.

The case has triggered wider discussion about Bosnia and Herzegovina’s capacity to regulate domestic defence-related production, as well as the broader challenge of balancing technological development with effective oversight and legal compliance in a fragmented institutional environment.

At the regional level, Bosnia and Herzegovina has also been affected by cross-border protests linked to new EU border management systems. On January 26, truck drivers from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia blocked several EU border terminals leading into the Schengen Area in protest against the EU’s Entry/Exit System (EES).

While the EES does not formally alter entry rules, it introduces digital registration of border crossings, including biometric data. Truck drivers argue that the stricter enforcement of the 90-day stay within a 180-day period for non-EU nationals threatens their ability to work, as drivers often remain within the Schengen Area longer than the permitted timeframe. This exposes them to the risk of sanctions, fines or deportation.

Protesters are calling on the EU to consider exemptions or tailored arrangements for professional drivers in order to avoid disrupting regional transport flows and undermining the competitiveness of Western Balkan freight operators. The blockades caused significant delays to cargo transport and logistics, prompting renewed debate about the unintended consequences of digital border systems for labour mobility and regional economic integration.

Taken together, these developments underline the persistent political, institutional and regulatory challenges facing Bosnia and Herzegovina at the start of 2026. They also illustrate how domestic instability, weak governance structures and evolving EU policies continue to intersect — often with destabilising effects — both within the country and across the wider Western Balkans.

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Albania
Mass Protests Erupt Over High-Level Corruption in Albania

Albania has been paralysed by a wave of mass protests following corruption scandals within Prime Minister Edi Rama’s government. The roots of these corruption cases date back to 2024, with the arrest of Ilir Meta, the former President of Albania, who was accused of money laundering. Subsequently, in February last year, the Mayor of Tirana, Erion Veliaj, was convicted on charges of corruption and money laundering. Other high-ranking politicians have faced similar accusations, such as Arben Ahmetaj, once Edi Rama’s “right-hand man,” and Belinda Balluku, whose suspension in November 2025 over corruption in the transport sector became the primary trigger for the January unrest.

On January 25, the Special Prosecution Office (SPAK) filed charges against Deputy Prime Minister Belinda Balluku, who is suspected of interfering in public tenders for infrastructure projects, including the Tirana Ring Road and the Llogara Tunnel. Although Balluku was removed from office in November last year, the Constitutional Court restored her to power a month ago. This move proved to be the final straw for the opposition and ignited the protests.

Opposition leader Sali Berisha has mobilised his supporters, leading a wave of mass protests with the declared goal of completely paralysing the current regime. Berisha is calling for civil disobedience, with clear demands, the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama and the immediate arrest of Deputy Prime Minister Belinda Balluku. ​​Driven by fury over unpunished corruption, protesters attacked government buildings with Molotov cocktails, pyrotechnics, and stones.

Under his leadership, the opposition accuses the government of turning parliament into a “shield for criminals” by repeatedly postponing the lifting of immunity for key figures involved in corruption cases. This domestic political struggle carries a critical international dimension, as Albania is in a key phase of EU accession negotiations, and systemic high-level corruption remains the primary obstacle to its integration.

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Montenegro
EU Accession Update: Closure of Chapter No. 32 – Financial Control

Since the beginning of the EU accession negotiations in 2012, Montenegro has established itself as the frontrunner for EU membership in the Western Balkans. To date, the country has opened all 33 negotiating chapters, with 12 officially closed. Current Prime Minister Milojko Spajic set an ambitious target to finalise all remaining chapters by the end of 2026, officially joining the EU by the end of 2028. If successful, Montenegro would become the third former Yugoslav state to join the Union. For this to happen, experts warn that Montenegro has to do way more work than just tick the remaining 21 chapters.

On January 26, Montenegro achieved a significant diplomatic milestone by successfully closing Chapter 32 – Financial Control. This brings the total number of closed chapters to 13, further solidifying Montenegro’s position as the frontrunner for EU membership. The closure of this chapter demonstrates that Montenegro has successfully adopted international standards for public, internal, financial control and external audits. These reforms also emphasise fiscal discipline, ensuring that both national and EU donor funds are managed through clear oversight mechanisms, including functional internal audits and rigorous budget inspections. Podgorica is therefore very ambitious to close the majority of the remaining chapters this year, moving the country significantly closer to its target of full EU membership.

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Kosovo
The Inauguration of a New Government in Kosovo Delayed by an Election Fraud Investigation

The Central Election Commission in Kosovo orders a recount of all ballots from the parliamentary elections held in December. Initial recounts in ten municipalities discovered major irregularities in the registration of candidates’ votes. As a result, the Commission has recently expanded its investigation.

“The repeated patterns of deviations in favour of certain candidates within and across certain municipalities create reasonable grounds for suspecting that these are not the products of human error or chance, but of deliberate actions by commissioners,“ commented Democracy in Action, a local network of election observers.

The process of a recount delays the inauguration of the new government. Kosovo has been waiting for a new government for almost a year now. The first election was held in February 2025. However, it ended up in an institutional deadlock as none of the opposition parties wanted to enter into a coalition with Vetevendosje, a political party of the current Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Vetevendosje won again in December 2025, and despite voting irregularities, their victory was secured. They will have 57 MPs in the 120-seat chamber.

On the other hand, what can be affected by the recount is who gets to be an MP. While some candidates lost hundreds of votes, others gained. For instance, one MP candidate from the opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo, Fetah Pacarizi, had 6,022 votes deducted after the recount. Another candidate from the same political party, Uran Ismaili, gained 763 votes.

The biggest irregularities were uncovered in Prizren, which eventually resulted in the arrest of 109 people by the Kosovo police. It involved mostly election commissioners from the four biggest parties – Vetevendosje, the Democratic Party of Kosovo, the Democratic League of Kosovo and Alliance for the Future of Kosovo. According to the head prosecutor, Petrit Kryeziu, there has been no evidence of the involvement of any of the candidates so far. However, he is not excluding the possibility that in the future the situation may change.

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Serbia
Hungarian MOL to Acquire Majority Stake in NIS from Gazprom

After a few weeks of negotiations, the Hungarian MOL Group has reached an agreement with Russia’s Gazprom Neft to acquire its 56,15% majority stake in Serbian Petroleum Company (NIS). During a recent visit to Belgrade, Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó said the government is providing diplomatic support to MOL. This strategic transaction between the Hungarian and Russian side aims to safeguard the future of NIS, which has been in existential danger due to the US sanctions, which have been in place since January 23, 2025. This situation previously forced the Pančevo refinery to temporarily halt operations.

This transaction is seen as an effort to shift the ownership of the company away from sanctioned Russian entities. According to the terms of the contract, the Serbian state also successfully negotiated to increase its stake by 5%, which will provide the government with enhanced decision-making rights at the shareholders’ assembly. Currently, the Serbian state holds a 29,9% stake in the company.

Furthermore, MOL is allegedly in discussions with ADNOC, a company from the United Arab Emirates, to potentially join the project as a minority shareholder. This expansion of the ownership structure is seen by the Hungarian government as a way to create an exceptionally strong energy supply network across Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia.

The completion of the sale remains under international oversight. The draft agreement must be submitted to the US administration for approval to ensure compliance with existing sanctions. The parties aim to sign the final sales and purchase agreement by March 31, 2026. If successful, this deal will significantly strengthen the regional position of MOL as a key energy supplier in Central Europe.

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North Macedonia
Identity, Conditionality, and EU Enlargement: North Macedonia at the Crossroads of Bilateral Disputes

The dispute between Bulgaria and North Macedonia poses a significant challenge to the EU’s enlargement process, underscoring how unresolved bilateral and identity-related conflicts can affect accession negotiations. At the core of the impasse is Bulgaria’s demand for constitutional amendments in North Macedonia to recognise Bulgarians as a constituent people. This request, while seemingly narrow, ties into broader issues of historical interpretation and national identity, as Sofia questions the distinctiveness of the Macedonian nation and language.

Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski argues that mere constitutional changes won’t resolve the underlying issues and may lead to further demands, reflecting a public scepticism rooted in past experiences, such as the stalled progress following the Prespa Agreement with Greece. The deadlock reveals weaknesses within the EU enlargement framework, where the unanimity principle allows member states to exert disproportionate influence, making the accession process more of a political negotiation than a merit-based one.

The implications are broader, as this stalemate could weaken pro-European sentiment in the Western Balkans and embolden nationalist narratives. Additionally, the EU’s struggle to separate enlargement from bilateral disputes raises doubts about its credibility as a fair actor in the region. Ultimately, North Macedonia’s accession challenges highlight the need for the EU to ensure that its enlargement process remains transparent and rule-based to maintain its role as a stabilising force in Southeast Europe.

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