Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Review of July 2026

Petra Bošková,  Henrieta Vengrínová, Lea Bellušová, Anna Gúliková, Terézia Hlačinová, Ema Valachová, Igor Píš


 

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Albania
Sazan Island From Military Base to a Luxury Resort for Millionaires

Sazan Island is the largest island in Albania, located off the coast of the city of Vlorë at the point where the Adriatic Sea meets the Ionian Sea. For most of the 20th century, especially during the Cold War, it served as a heavily guarded military base. The island is known for its well-preserved natural environment, crystal-clear waters, numerous bunkers from the communist era, and the presence of rare plant and animal species. It is also located near the Karaburun–Sazan Marine National Park, one of Albania’s most valuable protected natural areas.

The Albanian Government approved a project under which the island will be leased for 99 years to a company linked to American investor Jared Kushner. The planned investment, worth approximately €1.4 billion, includes the construction of an exclusive luxury resort featuring hotels, private villas, a yacht marina, restaurants, and other tourism infrastructure. The project aims to transform the former military island into a prestigious holiday destination that will attract international tourists and investors. According to the Albanian Government, the development will create new jobs, increase tourism revenues, and contribute to the country’s economic growth.

However, the project has sparked widespread protests across Albania. Many citizens, environmental organisations, and civil society groups oppose leasing such an important natural island to a private investor for almost an entire century. Critics argue that the construction could cause irreversible damage to protected coastal ecosystems and habitats of flamingos, sea turtles, and other endangered species. Protesters have also raised concerns about the lack of transparency in the Government’s decision-making process, claiming that foreign investors are being given preferential treatment while questioning whether the project will truly benefit ordinary Albanians. Over time, the demonstrations expanded beyond environmental concerns and became a broader expression of dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Government, calling for greater transparency, accountability, and stronger measures against corruption. Many Albanians believe that oligarchs and corruption are being prioritised over the country’s natural heritage and the well-being of its people. As a result, the planned luxury resort on Sazan Island has become one of the most controversial investment projects in contemporary Albania.



Sources:
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Republika Srpska Strengthens Lobbying in Washington Under Trump, While Selective Historical Narratives Become Part of the Political Struggle

Republika Srpska (RS), one of the two entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina, has intensified its lobbying activities in the United States. The entity’s political leadership, headed by Milorad Dodik, is seeking to take advantage of the changing political environment in Washington and establish closer ties with actors close to the administration of Donald Trump. Growing investments in lobbying can be viewed as part of a broader strategy aimed at strengthening the international position of Republika Srpska, influencing US policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina, and promoting its own vision of the country’s future political structure.

The activities of Republika Srpska also highlight the growing importance of foreign policy lobbying as a tool of political competition in the Western Balkans. Bosnia and Herzegovina remains a space where the interests of the United States, the European Union, Russia, Serbia and other actors intersect. The strengthening of lobbying should therefore not be viewed merely as an effort to improve the image of RS. Rather, it forms part of a broader strategy of internationalising Bosnia and Herzegovina’s internal political conflict. Its success will ultimately depend on the ability of RS to translate political contacts in Washington into tangible influence on US policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina.

According to available information, this lobbying strategy is already producing some results. In January 2017, just three days before Trump’s first inauguration, Washington imposed sanctions on Milorad Dodik, then President of Republika Srpska and leader of the ruling SNSD party. The sanctions were later expanded to include 47 individuals and companies linked to him. Today, however, Dodik is reportedly viewed by the Trump administration as a figure who shares its conservative values and is willing to open Republika Srpska to US investment. This shift in approach timely coincides with a significant increase in lobbying efforts by Banja Luka. According to available information, the entity has spent approximately €2.38 million on lobbying, added four new lobbying firms to its previous two, and engaged individuals with close ties to the US president. The spending has reportedly benefited sanctioned individuals rather than the entity itself or its institutions.

At the same time, Republika Srpska is seeking to promote a selective interpretation of the Bosnian war, turning historical narratives into another instrument in the contemporary political struggle over legitimacy and the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In New York, a billboard campaign was launched ahead of the anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide, seeking to promote an alternative and highly selective narrative of the events that took place during the Bosnian war.

On the other hand, the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) has launched an application aimed at identifying unmarked sites of war crimes across Bosnia and Herzegovina. The new Virtual Memories application provides users with access to virtual memorials at 50 unmarked war-crime locations. Its stated aim is to help younger generations learn more about their country’s wartime past and preserve the memory of victims.

Taken together, these developments illustrate how the struggle over Bosnia and Herzegovina is increasingly being fought not only through domestic politics and diplomatic channels, but also through lobbying, public diplomacy and competing narratives of the past. While Republika Srpska seeks to strengthen its international position and reshape perceptions of its political role, initiatives such as BIRN’s Virtual Memories seek to preserve a broader historical record of the war. The competition between these narratives demonstrates that the interpretation of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s past remains closely linked to the political contest over its present and future.



Sources:

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Montenegro
Montenegro Closed 2 More Accession Chapters

Montenegro is rapidly solidifying its position as the clear frontrunner in the European Union enlargement process. Following the 28th Accession Conference held in Brussels on July 14, 2026, the country successfully closed two more negotiating chapters: Chapter 8 (Competition Policy) and Chapter 29 (Customs Union). This milestone brings the total number of provisionally closed chapters to 18, demonstrating tangible progress toward Podgorica’s ambitious goals.

Prime Minister Milojko Spajić has expressed strong confidence in the country’s momentum, stating that the remaining 15 chapters are approximately 90% complete. The Montenegrin government aims to finish all technical work within the next few months, with the ultimate objective of closing all chapters by the end of 2026. This aggressive timeline aligns with the country’s target of becoming the 28th EU member state by mid-2028.

International support for Montenegro’s bid is growing. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently praised the country’s readiness, noting that it has met most requirements and should join the Union by the end of the decade. Merz emphasised that the EU must stand by its word, especially since no new members have been admitted for 13 years. Meanwhile, the Irish Presidency of the Council of the EU is actively preparing the ground, with the Ad Hoc Group for drafting the Accession Treaty already operational.

Financial preparations are also underway, with a proposed €3.2 billion financial package from the European Commission to support integration. As the process enters its “endgame,” Montenegro is well-positioned to secure its place in the European family by 2028.



Sources:
Kosovo
Government bulldozes Serb-owned villas, triggering International reaction

The political and sociocultural situation in northern Kosovo has undergone a marked escalation after police-assisted demolition of eleven Serb-owned villas near Lake Gazivode (Ujman). The operation, carried out by central authorities under the banner of protecting strategic water infrastructure, has been met with disapproval by international bodies (including the EU and the OSCE) and has brought to the fore concerns regarding the executive’s adherence to due process and the rights of minority property owners.

The action was justified by central authorities as a necessary reclamation of state-owned land managed by the public hydro-economic enterprise Ibër-Lepenc. Furthermore, the acting Minister of Environment Fitore Pacolli defended the move, stating that the protection of vital water resources remains a national priority and framing the demolitions as a lawful recovery of illegally occupied public property.

Nonetheless, the situation has sparked intense controversy among international observers. 

  • The European Office in Kosovo expressed regret over the demolitions, noting that affected residents had already initiated court appeals within the statutory 15-day notice period. By demolishing the properties prior to the issuance of judicial rulings, state authorities effectively created an irreversible situation that directly violates rule-of-law standards. Crucially, the EU warned that this case reflects a broader, troubling trend of non-compliance with due process observed in Northern Kosovo since February. 
  • The OSCE Mission in Kosovo has also issued a warning, emphasising that any enforcement actions against unauthorized construction must follow strict and universal legal safeguards. Observers warned that any uneven or selective legal application risks eroding public trust and further worsening inter-community relations.
  • In addition, major Western embassies joined the diplomatic backlash, with Germany and the United Kingdom issuing stark warnings. The German Embassy emphasised that constitutional guarantees of due process are essential for Kosovo’s European integration path. Conversely, British diplomats expressed deep concern regarding enforcement actions occurring during ongoing legal proceedings, urging Pristina to maintain an impartial legal framework. 

Representatives of the Serbian government’s Office for Kosovo condemned the operation as a „violent demolition“ driven by political motives, stating that owners were denied access to formal court decisions before their property was destroyed. While Pristina claims it is merely enforcing the law, international observers warn of a dangerous precedent, Bypassing active court appeals undermines the rule of law and risks fuelling ethnic tensions.  



Sources:

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Serbia
Serbia Launching Nuclear Programme with French Support

Serbia has formally begun the first phase of its civilian nuclear programme, signing partnership agreements with French state-owned utility Électricité de France (EDF) and development bank Agence Française de Développement (AFD). The energy minister stated that the agreements would help Serbia lay the foundations for nuclear energy. This move gives Serbian experts access to EDF’s knowledge, resources and experience as the state’s Nuclear Energy Programme Implementing Organisation (NEPIO) takes shape. The partnership builds on a 2024 cooperation agreement between Belgrade and Paris covering nuclear energy and strategic raw materials, part of a broader French-Serbian energy relationship following the lifting of Serbia’s decades-long ban on nuclear power construction.

EDF, described by the minister as the world’s leading operator of nuclear power plants, has already completed a preliminary technical study on the peacetime use of nuclear energy in Serbia. Under the new agreement, EDF will produce three additional studies as part of the programme’s first phase, while the remaining fourteen will be developed with other international companies possessing relevant experience. Serbian representatives mentioned that the central task of this phase is building a human resources development strategy, since trained personnel represent ‘the most valuable factor’ in launching any national nuclear programme, and that creating a base of qualified engineers is now among Serbia’s top priorities.

AFD’s role is centred on capacity-building rather than direct energy financing. The French agency approved a €500,000 grant, as its first contribution to the programme, which is channelled through its Fund for Technical Expertise and Experience Transfers to strengthen Serbia’s professional and organisational capacities during the first phase and a part of the second. Officials stated that all studies needed to make an informed decision on the programme’s future should be completed in the first half of 2027, after which Serbia will need to be institutionally, regulatorily and technically ready to select a nuclear technology. On current projections, the country’s first nuclear power plant would not be operational before 2040.



Sources:
North Macedonia
From Political Obstacles To Accession

North Macedonia´s European Union accession process remains at a critical juncture, shaped by both continued reform progress and persistent political obstacles. Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski has reaffirmed that his Government will not adopt constitutional amendments under the current conditions, rejecting the requirement to include the Bulgarian minority in the Constitution before accession negotiations can advance. The Government maintains that such changes can only be considered if the EU provides credible guarantees that Bulgaria will not impose additional bilateral conditions in the future. This position reflects growing domestic concerns that the accession process has become increasingly politicised despite the country´s longstanding commitment to European integration. At the same time, the European Commission has continued to encourage Skopje to maintain reform momentum. During her visit to North Macedonia, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos called for cross-party cooperation and political consensus, stressing that national unity is essential for advancing the country´s EU ambitions. The Commission also highlighted North Macedonia´s strong implementation of reforms under the Reform and Growth Facility, through which the country has already received substantial financial support. Furthermore, North Macedonia is expected to benefit from additional funding under the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, alongside Albania and Montenegro, as recognition of its reform performance. While the country´s economic and governance reforms continue to receive positive assessments and financial backing from the EU, the unresolved constitutional dispute linked to Bulgaria remains the principal obstacle preventing further progress in the accession negotiations.



Sources:

Share This Story, Choose Your Platform!