Strategic Analysis Caucasus Brief

Review of September 2025

Tomáš Baranec 

Armenia

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Armenia’s foreign policy achievements

In September 2025, Yerevan achieved significant progress in foreign policy. For the first time, Armenia established diplomatic relations with Pakistan and formed a strategic partnership with China. It also made progress in relations with Ankara and trilateral relations with Iran and India.

During Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Tianjin, China, on August 30 and his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the two sides announced the establishment of a strategic partnership between Armenia and China. According to Armenia’s Minister of Economy, Gevorg Papoyan, the strategic partnership established between Armenia and China will open new opportunities both for Armenia’s economy as a whole and for individual representatives of the private sector. “In particular, the two countries intend to further improve existing legislation in the areas of trade and investment so that trade turnover and investment flows proceed more smoothly. In this regard, we naturally expect to increase trade with the world’s second-largest economy and, of course, attract Chinese investments, which are among the most attractive globally,” Papoyan stated, adding that China’s economy has excellent potential in this respect.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has agreed to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia after decades of full and unconditional support shown for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The foreign ministers of the two states signed a relevant communique at the end of August on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin. “The two leaders reaffirmed their desire to work closely with each other at bilateral and multilateral fora, to achieve their shared objectives of peace, progress, and prosperity for the peoples of their two countries,” the Pakistani foreign ministry said in a statement.

On September 12, Turkey’s Special Envoy for normalisation with Armenia, Serdar Kılıç, arrived in Armenia. The Armenian Foreign Ministry reported that the envoys “agreed to expedite” the process of opening the border crossings, an agreement they reached in July 2022. “They also decided that efforts should be made to strengthen cooperation in the field of culture and academia, particularly by creating scholarship opportunities for higher education students and the joint renovation of the historical Ani/Silk Road bridge,” read the Armenian readout. Both representatives also agreed to work towards increasing the number of flights between the two countries.

On September 15, Artur Hovhannisyan, the Secretary of Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract party, announced that Armenian authorities had decided to remove the image of Mount Ararat (Ağrı Dağı in Turkish) from passport stamps at border crossings to avoid sending dangerous messages to neighbouring countries. During his statement, Hovhannisyan emphasised that there was no conspiracy behind this decision and therefore “there is no need to give it an emotional or sensational background.” He suggested that “it is possible that the next step will be the removal of the image of the mountain from all our symbols, as well as from the documents and seals that our country previously used.”

Hovhannisyan underlined that Ararat holds symbolic meaning and does not represent any territorial claims against neighbouring states, stressing, “I believe that the concepts of ‘real’ and ‘historical’ Armenia are artificial.” In addition to progress in relations with Turkey and Pakistan, relations with traditional partners India and Iran have also developed. On September 8, the third trilateral meeting of the Republic of Armenia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the Republic of India at the level of regional directors general of the foreign ministries was held in Tehran.

During the meeting, the three parties expressed satisfaction with the regular annual holding of the trilateral format and reviewed progress achieved based on decisions from the first meeting in Yerevan in April 2023 and the second meeting in New Delhi in December 2024. The participants highlighted the importance of expanding and deepening cooperation, particularly in connectivity, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), and Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” project, leveraging the strategic position of the Chabahar port.

Sources:
  • Massis Post, “Strategic Partnership Between Armenia and China Will Open New Opportunities for Armenia’s Economy: Papoyan”, https://massispost.com/2025/09/strategic-partnership-between-armenia-and-china-will-open-new-opportunities-for-armenias-economy-papoyan/
  • MKRTICHIAN Anush, Azatutyun.am, “Armenia, Pakistan Establish Diplomatic Ties”, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33518754.html
  • The Armenian Mirror-Spectator, “Armenian and Turkish Special Envoys Hold Talks in Yerevan”, https://mirrorspectator.com/2025/09/16/armenian-and-turkish-special-envoys-hold-talks-in-yerevan/
  • Caucasus Watch, „Armenia to Remove Mount Ararat Image from Passport Stamps”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/armenia-to-remove-mount-ararat-image-from-passport-stamps.html
  • Caucasus Watch, “Armenia, Iran, and India Review Trilateral Cooperation and Regional Projects in Tehran”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/armenia-iran-and-india-review-trilateral-cooperation-and-regional-projects-in-tehran.html
Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity: Update

The US State Department has published the memoranda signed between the US and Armenia and the US and Azerbaijan. As reported by the OC Media, the memorandum between the US and Azerbaijan entailed the creation of a strategic working group focused on three areas:

  1. Regional connectivity, including energy, trade, and transit;
  2. Economic investment, including Artificial Intelligence and digital infrastructure; and
  3. Security cooperation, including defence sales and counterterrorism cooperation.

In addition, it established separate collaborations between the USA and Azerbaijan, as well as with Armenia, in a number of other areas.

On September 11, the United States announced a plan to allocate 145 million USD for the implementation of a US-brokered agreement to open a transit route for Azerbaijan passing through Armenia.

Prime Minister Pashinyan pledged to give the United States exclusive rights to the corridor during talks with US President Donald Trump and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held at the White House on August 8. Key details of what will be called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) remain unknown.

Brendan Hanrahan of the State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs discussed them with Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan. “Here in Yerevan, I am thrilled to announce that, working with Congress, we plan to provide 145 million USD in assistance for Armenia, which marks the first major step toward making TRIPP a reality,” Hanrahan said in an X post after the talks. “Enjoyed productive discussions on our shared goals for expanding regional connectivity and economic investment.”

An Armenian readout of the talks quoted the US official as saying that the planned funding will support “investments in trade, infrastructure, critical minerals supply chains, and cross-border security.” It gave no other details. Later on September 20, Minister of Economy of Armenia Gevorg Papoyan was invited to the United States to discuss certain issues, including the details of the Trump Route project. Papoyan stated this during a briefing after the session of the Civil Contract Party board.

Gevorg Papoyan also addressed the question of what economic effect the opening of the Armenia-Turkey border would have, noting that Armenia’s greatest benefit will be access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Sources:
Armenia’s mixed economy and dropping trade turnover

In January-July 2025, growth in services offset the decline in trade and industry, while the country’s foreign trade turnover decreased by 41.4% compared to the same period in 2024, according to Caucasus Watch. Armenia’s economic activity index grew by 7% in January–July 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the Statistical Committee. The overall growth came amid mixed sectoral performance, with construction and services driving the trend while industrial output and foreign trade saw significant declines.

Industrial production fell by 9.8%, totalling over 1.5 trillion AMD, while electricity generation grew slightly by 2.1%. Construction activity surged by 20.2%, reaching 293.3 billion AMD, and trade turnover posted a modest 3.9% rise to more than 3.5 trillion AMD. The services sector also showed strong performance with a 10.6% increase, amounting to 2.1 trillion AMD.

Inflationary pressures remained moderate, as the consumer price index rose by 3.2% and the industrial production price index climbed by 2.5%. Foreign trade, however, contracted sharply by 41.4%, totalling 11.5 billion USD. Exports dropped by 48.3%, while imports decreased by 35.8%. According to the data, Armenian exports declined by 48.3% in the first seven months of the year, totalling 1.771 trillion AMD (4.545 billion USD). Imports declined by 35.8% to 2.728 trillion AMD (6.992 billion USD). June showed the best performance, with a drop of only 0.2%, while in July, the foreign trade turnover fell by 14.3% compared to the same month in 2024.

Sources:
  •  Caucasus Watch, Armenia’s Mixed Economy: Growth in Services Offsets Trade and Industry Decline, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/armenias-mixed-economy-growth-in-services-offsets-trade-and-industry-decline.html
  • Caucasus Watch, Armenia’s Foreign Trade Turnover Drops 41.4% in Early 2025, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/armenias-foreign-trade-turnover-drops-414-in-early-2025.html

Photo: Shutterstock.com

The ruling party leads in polls, followed by Samvel Karapetyan

According to a poll conducted by MPG Gallup International Association, if parliamentary elections in Armenia were held next Sunday, the Civil Contract party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan would receive the most support with 17.3% of the vote, an increase of 4.2% compared to the previous survey. The second position would be taken by a newly formed political union led by businessman Samvel Karapetyan, which entered the list of favourites for the first time, gaining 13.4% and showing a 10.6% increase in popularity. In third place stood the Armenian bloc of former President Robert Kocharyan with 6.4%.

Other political forces received less support: Prosperous Armenia, led by businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, obtained 3.8%; I Have the Honor – the Republican Party of Armenia – 3.4%; DOK – 2.5%; the Republic Party and ARF Dashnaktsutyun – 1.1% each; and Enlightened Armenia, associated with former Ambassador-at-Large Edmon Marukyan, received below 1.1%. The survey also revealed widespread electoral indifference and uncertainty: 23.9% of participants said they would not vote, 16.3% found it difficult to answer, and 5% refused to respond.

The earlier survey conducted by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Centre for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) from July showed similar results. Asked which political party or alliance, if any, they would vote for if national parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, 17% said Civil Contract/Nikol Pashinyan, 4% said Hayastan (Armenia) Alliance, 2% said Robert Kocharyan, 1% said My Step Alliance, 1% said Aram Sargsyan’s Republic Party, 1% said ARF, 1% said Pativ Unem Alliance. Twelve % said they would spoil the ballot, 28% said they would not vote, and 22% refused to answer.

Sources:
Armenia and Azerbaijan held their first reciprocal border committee visits

On September 5, the Armenian Foreign Ministry reported that Mher Grigoryan, Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, and Shahin Mustafayev, Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Azerbaijan, chaired mutual visits by their respective delegations to the territories of Armenia and Azerbaijan. In line with the agreements reached in Washington on August 8, 2025, the parties discussed the delimitation and demining of relevant sections of the state border, as well as the restoration and construction of necessary infrastructure and the timelines for their implementation, aiming to synchronise activities related to the creation of communications.

The heads of the delegations also exchanged views on organising the next meetings of the Commission on Delimitation and Border Security of the State Border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the State Commission on the Delimitation of the State Border between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

As OC Media noted, the border delimitation commissions of the two countries were created in 2022. Previously, they met in various other venues such as Moscow and Brussels, following which they held recent meetings on their shared border. According to the Armenian Foreign Ministry readout, the leaders, “taking stock of the progress made with respect to the border delimitation process, instructed the respective state commissions to continue practical work in this regard”.

Sources:

Azerbaijan

Photo:Shutterstock.com

OSCE Ministerial Council ends Minsk process activities

On September 1, the OSCE (the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) Ministerial Council adopted a decision to terminate the activities of the OSCE Minsk Process and its related structures. The decision officially ended the activities of the OSCE Minsk Process as of September 1, 2025, following a joint appeal by the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia to the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office. As part of the decision, the roles of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office’s Personal Representative on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and the High-Level Planning Group were also discontinued.

Gaya Mammadov, an MP and head of the Azerbaijani Parliament delegation to the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, noted that the closure of the Minsk Process marks a diplomatic success for President Ilham Aliyev and paves the way for a fair and sustainable peace in the region. He emphasised that the decision “means that the former Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is completely removed from the OSCE agenda. It is recognised that the conflict has been resolved within the framework of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. This also confirms the collapse of a diplomatic model that tried to circumvent the norms of international law.” Mammadov added that the decision brings Azerbaijan and Armenia closer to signing a peace treaty and strengthens security and cooperation in Europe.

On September 10, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan criticised the OSCE Minsk Group, saying that looking back, he saw “there has never been anything useful in the activities of that group”. According to the OC Media, the statement echoed those of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who regularly and harshly criticised the group. “[The Minsk Group’s] work was aimed at deepening the conflict and serving as a lever to keep not only Armenia but the entire region in a puppet position”, the Armenian state agency Armenpress quotedPashinyan as saying. Pashinyan further claimed that all negotiations under the Minsk Group format were aimed at increasing Armenia’s dependence on others and reiterated his claim that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue had been resolved long ago, only “we were not informed about it”. “If it had been resolved, why weren’t we told? Because the issue of Armenia was on the agenda. How to resolve the issue of Armenia? What would have happened as a result? There would have been a division of Armenia’s territorial integrity, a loss of sovereignty, and a loss of independence”, Pashinyan said.

On September 16, Toni Sandell, the Spokesperson and Deputy Head of the Task Force for the Finnish OSCE Chairpersonship, announced that the OSCE had begun the process of liquidating the Minsk Group and its related institutions. The OSCE Minsk Process, initiated in 1992, was a diplomatic effort led by the OSCE to mediate the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Minsk Group, co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States, aimed to facilitate a peaceful resolution through negotiations.

Sources:
  • Caucasus Watch, “OSCE Ministerial Council Ends Minsk Process Activities”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/osce-ministerial-council-ends-minsk-process-activities.html
  • Caucasus Watch, “OSCE Begins Liquidation of Minsk Group and Related Institutions”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/osce-begins-liquidation-of-minsk-group-and-related-institutions.html
  • BARSEGHYAN Arshalyus, OC Media, “Echoing Aliyev, Pashinyan slams the now-dissolved OSCE Minsk Group”, https://oc-media.org/echoing-aliyev-pashinyan-slams-the-now-dissolved-osce-minsk-group/
Further expansion of Azerbaijan’s energy industry

On September 23, State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) reached an agreement to purchase 99.82% of Italiana Petroli (IP), a prominent Italian energy company, from API Holding. The transaction is conditioned on obtaining the required regulatory clearances (antitrust, foreign subsidies, and golden power). The closing is expected to occur by the end of the first quarter in 2026.

Italiana Petroli is one of Italy’s largest integrated downstream platforms, with a nationwide network of thousands of fuel retail stations, refining capacity of around 10 million tonnes per year across two refineries, sales of specialities such as bitumen, jet fuel, and lubricants, and a logistics system covering the entire country.

This acquisition marks a significant milestone in expanding SOCAR’s presence in the European energy market, reflecting its commitment to strengthening bilateral economic and energy relations between Azerbaijan and Italy, while also contributing to the energy security and sustainable development of the European region. Caucasus Watch reported that on September 16, Azerbaijan’s State Customs Committee reported that the country had resumed crude oil exports to India after a 10-month suspension. According to the data, in August 2025, Azerbaijan exported 1,747.07 tons of crude oil to India, worth 781,520 USD. This represented a significant decline, with volumes dropping by a factor of 589 and the value decreasing by a factor of 827 compared to the same period in 2024. Exports to India accounted for only 0.01% of Azerbaijan’s total crude oil exports.

Meanwhile, Baku is searching for opportunities to expand its oil extraction. During a special Cabinet of Ministers session dedicated to President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to the United States on August 26, Mikayil Jabbarov, the Minister of Economy of Azerbaijan, announced that the country was seeking to discover a major unconventional oil field with the support of the American company ExxonMobil. Jabbarov stated that the signing of a Memorandum of Cooperation between SOCAR and ExxonMobil would positively impact the development of energy sector cooperation.

Sources:
  • The Caspian Post, “SOCAR Inks Deal to Acquire Italiana Petroli Refiner”, https://caspianpost.com/azerbaijan/socar-inks-deal-to-acquire-italiana-petroli-refiner
  • Caucasus Watch, “Mikayil Jabbarov Announces Cooperation with ExxonMobil to Discover Major Oil Field”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/mikayil-jabbarov-announces-cooperation-with-exxonmobil-to-discover-major-oil-field.html
  • Caucasus Watch, “Azerbaijan Resumes Oil Exports to India After Suspension; Sharp Declines Observed in Exports to Türkiye”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/azerbaijan-resumes-oil-exports-to-india-after-suspension-sharp-declines-observed-in-exports-to-turkiye.html
Azerbaijan to hold snap parliamentary election on September 1 

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev dissolved the Parliament on June 28 and set September 1 for elections, moving the vote up from November. The ruling New Azerbaijan Party initiated the move last week, saying that events to be held in the country, including the UN climate conference (COP29), warranted moving the date. The Constitutional Court approved the change on June 27.

Opposition politicians and parties criticised the move as a tool to falsify the elections’ results. Jamil Hasanli, who leads the National Council of Democratic Forces, an opposition bloc that includes the Popular Front Party and others, questioned the move’s legality. Hasanli told OC Media that according to the Azerbaijani Constitution, Parliament only had the right to dissolve itself under particular circumstances, which had not been met. “Only the President has this right to apply to dissolve Parliament, and the Constitutional Court should decide if constitution law was broken or not; they have a responsibility to defend the constitution… COP29 is not a valid reason for dissolving the Parliament; this is a political decision, not a judicial one”, he said.

It is unclear which opposition parties will choose to run. In previous elections, a number of candidates from the largest opposition parties, including the Popular Front Party and Musavat, have been barred from running. Azerbaijan last held parliamentary elections in 2020, with Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan Party winning 70 of 120 seats amidst widespread incidents of voter fraud. The remaining seats went to pro-government independent candidates and small opposition parties.

Sources:
  •  RFE/RL, “Azerbaijan To Hold Snap Parliamentary Elections On September 1”, https://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-to-hold-snap-parliamentary-elections-on-september-1/33013106.html
  • FARHADOVA Aytan, OC Media, “Azerbaijan to hold a snap parliamentary election on September 1”, https://oc-media.org/azerbaijan-to-hold-snap-parliamentary-election-on-1-september/

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Relations between Baku and Moscow remain strained

On August 28, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, reported that Russian strikes in Kyiv hit multiple foreign missions, including the Azerbaijani embassy. The embassy was damaged, but there were no staff injuries; however, an Azerbaijani citizen was killed in the attacks. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan confirmed that the Azerbaijani embassy had been damaged during the attack, but no one was injured. “On August 28, around 3 a.m. (GMT+3), missile and drone attacks occurred in Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv. One of the missiles exploded near the building of Azerbaijan’s embassy in Ukraine, causing damage to the building from the blast. Some windows were broken, and cracks appeared on the roof of the consular section,” the statement read.

Moreover, an Azerbaijani citizen was among those killed as a result of Russian missile strikes on Kyiv. The victim’s body was recovered from under the rubble of a five-story building in the Ukrainian capital. It was determined that the deceased was 60-year-old Ramiz Zakiyev, originally from Baku.

Meanwhile, on September 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged difficulties in Moscow’s relations with Baku. Speaking to journalists at the end of his visit to China, Putin said: “There are always questions arising from the current situation and political conjuncture in interstate relations. There are problems, but today I had the opportunity to greet President [Ilham] Aliyev, and we exchanged a few words. Substantial relations and mutual interest in developing them will resolve everything,” according to Interfax. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the two leaders shook hands during events in Tianjin and Beijing, but did not hold what he described as “substantive” talks. He explained that such dialogue implies discussions with specific content and practical outcomes.

Both Aliyev and Putin attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin on August 31-September 1, as well as the 80th anniversary parade marking the end of World War II in Beijing on September 3. Expectations of a bilateral meeting were voiced beforehand, and Peskov had not ruled out such an encounter, reported BNE Intellinews. Shortly after the summit, information appeared in Azerbaijani media that Russia helped India to block Azerbaijan’s bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). An unnamed diplomatic source told APA that the decision to block Azerbaijan’s membership bid was discussed during negotiations between India and Russia, during which it was decided that India would “take the lead in the process while [Russia] remained in the background”.

In late September, the Media Development Agency of Azerbaijan (MEDIA) issued a warning about a new disinformation campaign targeting the country. MEDIA noted that some of the disseminated information contained fake news about Azerbaijan allegedly arming Ukraine through a third country, while other parts included claims that do not reflect the truth about Azerbaijan’s possible refusal to participate in the Eurovision Song Contest if Israel gets banned. MEDIA stated that the re-circulation of such materials in Turkish media and social media segments under the influence of fake news spreading disinformation against Azerbaijan causes deep regret.

Earlier, on September 2, the Azerbaijani Parliament Commission on Foreign Interference and Hybrid Threats stated that a large-scale disinformation campaign against Azerbaijan had been launched from the Russian Federation.

Sources:

  • AGA Cavid, BNE Intellinews, “Putin admits problems in Azerbaijan-Russia relations”, https://www.intellinews.com/putin-admits-problems-in-azerbaijan-russia-relations-399474/

  • Caucasus Watch, “Russian Strikes Hit Azerbaijani Embassy in Kyiv”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/russian-strikes-hit-azerbaijani-embassy-in-kyiv.html

  • OSTILLER Nate, Oc MEDIA, “Azerbaijan claims Russia helped India block SCO membership bid”, https://oc-media.org/azerbaijan-claims-russia-helped-india-block-sco-membership-bid/

  • Caucasus Watch, “Azerbaijan Warns of Russian Disinformation Campaign Targeting Country”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/azerbaijan-warns-of-russian-disinformation-campaign-targeting-country.html

  • Report.az, “MEDIA: Another disinformation campaign begun against Azerbaijan”, https://report.az/en/media/media-another-disinformation-campaign-begun-against-azerbaijan

Azerbaijan to increase military budget by almost 4%, Yerevan to cut by 15%

Azerbaijan’s Finance Ministry has announced plans to increase the country’s defence and security budgets by 187 million USD, reaching a total of 5.1 billion USD in 2026. In 2024, former Finance Minister Samir Sharifov stated in Parliament that Azerbaijan was increasing its military spending, as per President Ilham Aliyev’s decree. „20.3% of next year’s [in 2025] budget expenditures are planned to be spent on defence and security because in the case of the Armenian militarisation“, Sharifov said at the time. That year, the defence and security budget was increased by 1 billion USD.

As the OC Media pointed, Azerbaijan’s decision to increase its military spending for 2026 notably comes at a low point in Azerbaijan’s ties to Russia, fueled by the deadly crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) flight in December 2024, which Baku has blamed on Russian air defence, as well as the deaths of two ethnic Azerbaijanis during a Russian police raid in Yekaterinburg in June 2025. In the following months, there have been repeated threats from Russian propagandists and some politicians that the Kremlin could launch an attack on Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, Armenia plans to allocate 1.44 billion USD for defence in 2026, down 258 million USD, or about 15%, from 2025, according to the draft state budget approved by the government on September 25. The reduction marks the first decline in military spending since 2020. The government’s decision comes weeks after Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States initiated a peace declaration in Washington, D.C., on August 8. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the finance minister signalled at the time that a peace track could ease the pressure for higher military spending. “I think in the 2026 state budget, there will either be no major increase in defence spending or none at all. That is logical. At least for now, that is our assessment. We will continue our operational analysis of the situation,” Pashinyan said on August 21.

At a parliamentary session on September 10, he explained that the sharp rise in 2025 had been linked to urgent needs, including the prepayment of defence-related loans. “Some of the funds were directed to repay obligations that otherwise would have been due in 2030 or 2035. We found it appropriate to reduce future debt burdens, but not only that,” Pashinyan said, adding that under the medium-term expenditure framework, 2026 still represents normal growth compared with 2024.

Sources:

Georgia

 Photo:Shutterstock.com

Georgia’s former Defence Minister Burchuladze arrested for money laundering

On September 11, the State Security Service of Georgia (SSSG) arrested former Defence Minister Juansher Burchuladze on charges of abuse of office and money laundering, involving more than 1.5 million GEL (approximately 580,000 USD), following the July arrests of former Defence Ministry officials, as reported by Civil.ge. The SSSG’s anti-corruption agency head, Emzar Gagnidze, announced the arrest at a September 11 press briefing. As for the former defense minister, the SSSG official said Burchuladze and his three associates – including his then-deputy Giorgi Khaindrava, the former head of the Defense Ministry’s procurement department, and Burchuladze’s relative, all of whom were arrested in July – manipulated a Ministry procurement deal to inflate the price of an MRI machine from 2.6 million GEL to nearly 3.9 million GEL, causing a loss of more than 1.3 million GEL. Gagnidze added that Burchuladze concealed the origins of large sums of illicit income by purchasing property in Spain and using fictitious contracts. In the July arrests, Burchuladze was not directly named.

The SSSG stated that Burchuladze and his family purchased land and a house in Spain’s Malaga province for 544,000 EUR in January 2025, concealing the transaction through a fake sale agreement for another property in Tbilisi’s Tskneti district that the family had not actually sold, as well as through fictitious loans. According to the SSSG, Burchuladze failed to declare the property in his official asset declaration in March.

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze commented on Burchuldaze’s arrest, emphasising that fighting corruption was one of the government’s priorities. “Naturally, the arrest of the former minister is very unfortunate in itself, but we cannot be loyal to corruption”, Kobakhidze said, as cited by OC Media. He added that the government had a goal to be “among the top three in Europe in terms of low corruption”. “How all this will continue, how long it will last, and what the outcome will be — this is already the business of law enforcement agencies, the prosecutor’s office, and the court. I have no right to comment specifically on these processes. The main thing is that the rule of law and justice operate in our country”, Kobakhdize concluded. Burchuladze faces 9 to 12 years in prison.

Sources:
  • Civil.ge, “Former Defence Minister Burchuladze Arrested on Abuse of Office, Money Laundering Charges”, https://civil.ge/archives/700389ä
  • Interpress News, “Juansher Burchuladze transferred to Healthycore clinic – he will likely be charged at clinic”, https://www.interpressnews.ge/en/article/142310-juansher-burchuladze-transferred-to-healthycore-clinic-he-will-likely-be-charged-at-clinic/
  • KUENNING Alexandra (Xandie), OC Media, „Georgia’s former Defence Minister Burchuladze arrested for money laundering”, https://oc-media.org/georgias-former-defence-minister-burchuladze-arrested-for-money-laundering/
Former PM Giorgi Gakharia rules out return to Georgia, calls boycott a mistake

Former Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia said on September 8 that he does not plan to return to Georgia in the near future, stressing that his absence should not be seen as surprising. “I want to emphasise that I am not planning to come to Tbilisi anytime soon, and there is nothing unusual about this. I do not believe that [ruling] Georgian Dream [party] currently has the resources to arrest me, even though several cases have been launched and investigations are ongoing”, Gakharia said in an interview with TV Pirveli. “However, what the ruling party does have is enough resources to restrict my political and party activities if I am in Georgia. They could summon me for questioning, create publicity stunts, limit my ability to leave the country, and restrict my mobility”, he added.

Gakharia stated that he had recently obtained a German residence permit, which enables him to continue working in Europe on a long-term basis while adhering to formal procedures. “This is simply a long-term visa, which enables me to carry out professional activities in Europe. I am not talking about seeking employment – my work will be tied to the party, the country, and expert-level projects. Together with experts, we are preparing an initiative that will soon be made public.”, Gakharia said.

“This is not a case of political asylum, and attempts to present it as such are misleading. The permit is strictly for professional activities, which will remain directly connected to Georgia, its European future, and expert work on EU integration and enlargement, particularly regarding Eastern Europe”, he added as cited by Front News Georgia.

Earlier on September 2, the Georgian Dream Parliament approved MP credentials of twelve new members of ex-Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia’s For Georgia party, two months after the mandates of the initial twelve MP candidates on the party’s proportional list were terminated over their repeated absence amid opposition boycott.

The former prime minister’s party, one of four opposition groups to clear the 5% threshold in the disputed 2024 parliamentary elections, joined the opposition’s boycott of the one-party legislature. However, unlike the other three alliances, it stopped short of formally renouncing its mandates. Now, Gakharia’s latest remarks, calling the parliamentary boycott a “mistake,” suggest the party may revise the boycott strategy after the October 4 municipal vote.

“I tell you honestly today that I consider not using the parliamentary mandates to be a mistake. We have a small resource left to correct this mistake; we can use it, or if we cannot, this will directly depend on the political environment that will be created in the country after the municipal elections,” Gakharia, currently in exile as he faces two separate probes over his 2019 tenure as interior minister, said during his remote TV Pirveli interview on September 1.

Sources:
Kavelashvili pardons two jailed opposition leaders, citing participation in municipal elections

Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili has pardoned opposition Lelo — Strong Georgia leaders Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze, two and a half months after they were jailed. Both politicians, alongside others, were sentenced to eight months in June for boycotting the ruling Georgian Dream party’s anti-opposition parliamentary commission. Kavelashvili announced the amnesty on September 5. According to the statement, he made this decision so that “no one would even have the pretext to say that the October municipal elections, in which Lelo is participating, are being held “under conditions of restricted competitiveness”.

Kavelashvili added that this was despite the fact that both politicians had rejected his July offer of a pardon, which was issued to imprisoned political leaders whose parties were set to participate in the local elections. „[With this], they tried to insult the institution of the president“, Kavelashvili said.

Leaving prison hours after Georgian Dream-elected President Mikheil Kavelashvili pardoned them, Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze, two leaders of the opposition Lelo/Strong Georgia alliance, attributed their release to “manipulation” aimed at dividing the opposition. “What the so-called president did today is a legal nonsense, a manipulation with people’s freedom, a trampling of the law, a trade with human beings,” Mamuka Khazaradze told reporters on September 5 as he emerged from prison with a grey beard.

Calling the move “sneaky, very dirty step, when our fellow fighters are serving punishment for exactly the same article, the same so-called crime,” Khazaradze still reaffirmed his resolve to take part in the vote, against calls by some opposition figures to reverse the decision. “It is precisely the president’s decision today that shows he wants to bring chaos and confrontation to the opposition spectrum,” the Lelo leader noted. Badri Japaridze, who also left the jail, similarly noted that their position was “the same as it was until the day we were placed in prison,” attributing the imprisonment to the party’s decision to run in the elections.

Those from the parties that chose to boycott the vote, however, attributed the decision to the Georgian Dream’s attempts to pressure the opposition into taking part in the vote. While describing the freedom of two leaders whom they see as political prisoners as a positive event in general, they called on the Lelo leaders to reconsider their decision. The two Lelo leaders were arrested on June 23 by a court decision. The Tbilisi City Court sentenced them to eight months in prison and barred them from holding public office for two years for failing to comply with the request of the Georgian Parliament’s temporary investigative commission.

Sources:

  • GVADZABIA Mikheil, OC Media, “Kavelashvili pardons two jailed opposition leaders, citing participation in municipal elections”, https://oc-media.org/kavelashvili-pardons-two-jailed-opposition-leaders-citing-participation-in-municipal-elections/

  • Civil.ge, Khazaradze, “Japaridze Say Kavelashvili’s Pardon ‘Manipulation’ as They Leave Prison”, https://civil.ge/archives/699391

  • Georgian Public Broadcaster, “Mamuka Khazaradze released from Rustavi Prison after presidential pardon”, https://1tv.ge/lang/en/news/mamuka-khazaradze-released-from-rustavi-prison-after-presidential-pardon/

Elene Khoshtaria detained amid criminal probe on “damaging” Kaladze banners

The leader of Georgian opposition party Droa, Elene Khoshtaria, has been detained for writing “Russian Dream” on a local election banner of the ruling Georgian Dream party on September 15. The charges carry a sentence of up to five years in prison. On September 14, Khoshtaria published two Facebook posts featuring inscriptions she had made on Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze’s re-election posters. The first included a picture of a banner with the word “Russian” written on it. The caption on Khoshtaria’s post read: “Solidarity with Megi!” — a reference to 23-year-old Megi Diasamidze, who on September 10 was detained for spray painting “Russian Dream” on a Kaladze poster during a protest in early September. She was released on bail of 2,000 GEL (750 USD) two days later.

The second post was a video showing her writing “Russian Dream” on an identical poster. In the video, a man can be seen trying to take away her pen as he films her. Speaking to journalists on September 11, Kaladze vowed to punish those who had damaged his posters. “The fact is very bad. No radical should be given the opportunity. What if I came to your house and damaged your house?”, Kaladze asked rhetorically, adding that while he saw other people damaging his banners, only Diasamidze was arrested as the others could not be identified at the time.

The Tbilisi City Court set bail at 5,000 GEL (approximately 1,850 USD) for Khoshtaria on September 17, giving her 20 days to pay. However, after refusing to attend her court hearing and declining legal defence in protest, she has now vowed not to post bail, urging others not to do so either.

“Paying bail and leaving this way is not freedom,” Khoshtaria wrote in a letter from custody. “It is a tribute paid to open the prison door, which, of course, I will not pay. Not because it would hurt my dignity, but because I cannot call on you to fight while I myself take part in lies and a farce.” “My imprisonment is unlawful, just like that of many other free people. But imprisonment is not the end of the struggle – that I truly promise you,” Khoshtaria added, stressing she does “not permit” anyone to post bail on her behalf, calling it a “stab in the heart.”

A prominent opposition figure, Khoshtaria ran under the Coalition for Change alongside Akhali and Girchi — More Freedom in the disputed October 2024 elections.

Sources:

  • BARDOUKA Yousef, OC Media, “Georgian opposition leader Khoshtaria detained for writing ‘Russian Dream’ on ruling party banner”, https://oc-media.org/georgian-opposition-leader-khoshtaria-detained-for-writing-russian-dream-on-ruling-party-banner/

  • Civil.ge, “Court Sets Bail for Elene Khoshtaria, But She Refuses to Pay”, https://civil.ge/archives/701293

Papuashvili accuses Zourabichvili and Khidasheli of treason

On September 4, Shalva Papuashvili, the Chairman of the Georgian Parliament, stated that former Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili and former Georgian Defence Minister Tina Khidasheli were preparing to attend hearings of the Helsinki Commission to “commit an act of treason against the Motherland,” reported Caucasus Watch. During his remarks, Papuashvili emphasised that Zourabichvili, who still considers herself the President of Georgia, intended to convince “some American senators and congressmen how bad her homeland is.”

Papuashvili also stressed that Zourabichvili was a McCain Institute fellow, asserting that she was “on the payroll of foreigners.” “What is she if not an agent?” the speaker of Parliament stated. He further criticised Khidasheli, saying she was “a person financed by unrecognised Taiwan, who is paid money to stir up anti-Chinese sentiments.” According to him, both figures were “two people travelling to commit an act of treason on live television.”

The chairman added that America was pursuing its own interests and recalled that former US Ambassador Kelly Degnan “proved” this. He stated that on February 28, shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine, Degnan came to him and “categorically demanded” that Georgia escalate the situation with Russia by introducing sanctions and closing its skies. Papuashvili noted that everyone who pushed Georgia to impose sanctions, close its borders, or escalate with Russia was “trying to drag Georgia into the war.”

Sources:

  • Caucasus Watch, “Papuashvili Accuses Zourabichvili and Khidasheli of Treason”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/papuashvili-accuses-zourabichvili-and-khidasheli-of-treason.html

Share This Story, Choose Your Platform!