Strategic Analysis Caucasus Brief
Review of October 2025
Tomáš Baranec
Armenia

Photo: Shutterstock.com
The actions of Armenian authorities against church officials have drawn criticism both at home and abroad
On October 3, Archbishop Mikael Ajapahyan was sentenced to two years in prison under the Criminal Code for “making public calls aimed at seizing power, violating territorial integrity, or overthrowing the constitutional order, using publicly displayed works, mass media, or information and communication technologies.” The charge is based on an interview he gave more than a year ago, in which the cleric spoke about the “need for a coup.” At that time, however, the Prosecutor General’s Office had reviewed the same statements and found no grounds for criminal proceedings. The prosecution now justifies opening the case by claiming that Ajapahyan repeated the same statement in June 2025.
Human rights defender Zaruhi Hovhannisyan refuted this reasoning in an interview with Medialab, saying: “From a legal standpoint, it is impossible for the same act to be considered non-criminal in one case and criminal in another. A person cannot now be sentenced to imprisonment for an action that was previously not regarded as a crime.”
Similarly, Anna Melikyan, legal expert at the Protection of Rights Without Borders NGO, in written comments to Democracy Watch, pointed to serious legal shortcomings in the case. She noted that although the Archbishop was charged for repeated calls made over a protracted timeline, the Prosecutor’s Office failed to demonstrate that those calls posed any real risk of violence or that any harmful actions followed them. According to Melikyan, this absence of demonstrable harm undermines the case’s legal foundation.
Notably, even some members of Armenia’s civil society, who are generally sympathetic to the government, have expressed concern about the disproportionate nature of the ruling, according to civilnet.org. On October 15, Armenian authorities arrested another 10 priests and a bishop in the country’s central Aragatsotn region. Among those detained is Bishop Mkrtich Proshyan, the head of Aragatsotn diocese and the cousin of the Armenian Catholicos, Garegin Nersisyan.
According to the Investigative Committee, a public criminal prosecution has been launched against Bishop Proshyan under Article 149, Part 2, Clause 4 of the Criminal Code (obstructing the exercise of electoral rights through the abuse of official position) and Article 236, Part 3 (using official authority or influence to prevent or compel participation in a gathering, or to offer material incentives to influence participation). The charges stem from allegations that Bishop Proshyan abused his position to interfere in electoral and public assembly processes.
On the following day, an Armenian lawyer, Aleksandr Kochubayev, was detained by masked officers of the National Security Service (NSS). Earlier that day, Kochubayev published an angry post on Facebook condemning the officials who oversaw the arrest of Bishop Mkrtich Proshyan and another priest on October 15. In the post, he accused investigators, prosecutors, and judges of acting on political orders amid Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ongoing confrontation with the Armenian Apostolic Church. He referred to them as “sons of a bitch” who had “sold their souls to the devil”, reported the OC Media.
Kochubayev was charged with making “defamatory” statements harmful to the officials’ ”rights and legitimate interests” and was remanded in pre-trial detention overnight by a Yerevan court judge, Masis Melkonyan, known for authorising the arrests of government critics.
Kochubaev’s arrest was later condemned by the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ). “The detention of a lawyer apparently for statements solely related to his professional work is a serious interference with the independence of the legal profession,” said Temur Shakirov, ICJ Director for Europe and Central Asia. “Lawyers must be able to defend their clients and speak about the administration of justice without intimidation or fear of punishment.” The ICJ called on the Armenian authorities to ensure Alexander Kochubaev’s immediate release and for an end to the use of criminal law to penalise lawyers solely for the exercise of their professional duties.
Sources:
- Civilnet.org, “Archbishop Ajapahyan’s conviction and the politicisation of justice in Armenia”, https://www.civilnet.am/en/news/978379/archbishop-ajapahyans-conviction-and-the-politicization-of-justice-in-armenia/
- OC Media, „Armenian authorities crack down on the church, again”, https://oc-media.org/armenian-authorities-crack-down-on-the-church-again/
- GHAZANCHYAN Siranush, Public Radio of Armenia, https://en.armradio.am/2025/10/16/aragatsotn-diocese-leader-bishop-mkrtich-proshyan-arrested-for-two-months/
- OC Media, „Armenian lawyer arrested after Facebook post criticising authorities”, https://oc-media.org/armenian-lawyer-arrested-after-facebook-post-criticising-authorities/
- ICJ, “Armenia: ICJ condemns detention of defence lawyer Alexander Kochubaev and calls for his immediate release”, https://www.icj.org/armenia-icj-condemns-detention-of-defence-lawyer-alexander-kochubaev-and-calls-for-his-immediate-release/
Defrocked priest challenged church authority and invited Pashinyan to attend his mass
On October 21, the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin announced that Priest Aram Asatryan has been stripped of his clerical rank. Previously, Asatryan stated in an interview with Public Television of Armenia that he had been forced to attend opposition rallies against his will. This statement led to the initiation of a criminal case against the head of the Aragatsotn Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Bishop Mkrtich Proshyan. That same night, the bishop and the head of the diocesan office, Garegin Arsenyan, were arrested. They are accused of coercing individuals to participate in opposition rallies in 2021.
The defrocked priest, however, rejected the accusations, claiming that the decision was politically motivated and timed to coincide with his public criticism of senior clergy. “This morning, I submitted a letter to the disciplinary committee expressing my willingness to meet with them. Instead, within hours, they published their decision”, he wrote on Facebook. “If only they responded as quickly to questions about why the committee ignored the Catholicos’s own problematic conduct for two years”.
The move sparked sharp political reactions in Yerevan. Deputy Parliament Speaker Ruben Rubinyan condemned what he called “another anti-church act by Ktrich Nersisyan”, referring to one of Etchmiadzin’s senior clerics. “Defrocking Father Aram is unjustified and part of Nersisyan’s unlawful pressure campaign. He should be the one removed from office”, Rubinyan said.
In a surprising twist, Father Aram announced that he would still celebrate Mass at Hovhannavank on Sunday, inviting parishioners and even Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who later stated that he planned to attend. Pashinyan later indeed attended a controversial Sunday liturgy. The ceremony took place at Hovhannavank Monastery in Aragatsotn province and was declared “illegal and spiritually destructive” by the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, which had stripped Asatryan of his clerical status just days earlier.
The service drew senior government officials, including the ministers of defence, economy, and health, as well as ruling Civil Contract MPs and governors. Tight security surrounded the site, with police vehicles lining nearby roads and the police chief personally overseeing operations.
During the liturgy, one attendee who shouted that the defrocked cleric “has no right to serve mass” was silenced and removed from the church. Soon after, Asatryan publicly thanked Pashinyan for what he called “keeping his mouth open”. “When they silence us, they silence God’s word”, the former priest declared from the altar. “Mr Prime Minister, your presence here keeps that mouth open”. His words were followed by applause from the crowd.
Pashinyan later faced some criticism for his attendance. In a social media post, political analyst Suren Surenyants said Pashinyan’s participation amounted to endorsing an unlawful act and reflected his government’s tendency to place “political expediency above constitutional order”. He warned that the move set a “dangerous precedent”, calling it part of a broader pattern of “institutional dismantling” aimed at consolidating state control.
During a livestream earlier on Sunday, Pashinyan said the service would mark the start of “the practical phase of liberating the Holy See of Etchmiadzin”, which Surenyants interpreted as an attempt to seize control of the Armenian Apostolic Church.
The mass drew only a few hundred attendees, which the analyst said underscored the lack of popular support for the government’s “anti-church policy”. He also stated the authorities rely increasingly on administrative pressure and media manipulation, warning of possible changes against Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II and his arrest.
Sources:
- OC Media, „Defrocked priest challenges church authority, invites Pashinyan to attend his mass”, https://oc-media.org/defrocked-priest-challenges-church-authority-invites-pashinyan-to-attend-his-mass/
- OC Media, „Pashinyan attends sermon by defrocked priest in escalating feud with Armenian Church”, https://oc-media.org/pashinyan-attends-sermon-by-defrocked-priest-in-escalating-feud-with-armenian-church/
- Panorama.am, “Political analyst slams Pashinyan for attending defrocked priest-led liturgy”, https://www.panorama.am/en/news/2025/10/27/defrocked-priest-liturgy/3143819

Photo: Shutterstock.com
Actual situation in the Armenian opposition
Former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan has announced his intention to participate in the 2026 parliamentary elections, signalling his return to the political stage after several years of relative inactivity. Kocharyan, who led Armenia from 1998 to 2008, announced during a press conference on October 6, outlining his intentions to begin preparing for the elections early next year.
During the press conference, Kocharyan strongly criticised Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government, particularly its handling of talks with Azerbaijan and the recent peace agreement. He accused the authorities of failing to address poverty and corruption and argued that Armenia’s steps toward European integration are only a “show” rather than a genuine process.
Meanwhile, Armenia’s third president and Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) chairman, Serzh Sargsyan, was asked about his party’s plans for the 2026 elections. Sargsyan said, “We will announce in due time whether the Republican Party of Armenia will participate in the elections or not.” He added that he does not want to make premature conclusions and mentioned that he had not followed Kocharyan’s press conference earlier that day. “Based on that, I cannot express any opinion,” the former President stated.
Just a day before Kocharyan’s announcement, former Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan also declared his intention to run in the 2026 parliamentary elections, signalling the early start of a potentially competitive race involving several of Armenia’s former top officials, wrote The Armenian Report. “We are determined to form a government, and I am running for the position of Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia”, Tatoyan said during a press conference in Yerevan. “We will move forward as an independent political force, uniting the efforts of society toward common goals”.
Tatoyan, 43, began his career in the state system in 2003 and served as Armenia’s Human Rights Defender from 2016 to 2022. He was initially nominated for the post with backing from the then-ruling Republican Party, but also received support from then-opposition lawmaker and current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
While his early years as a human rights defender were largely nonconfrontational, relations with the current authorities deteriorated sharply after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and Azerbaijan’s subsequent incursions along Armenia’s borders. Tatoyan repeatedly accused the government of neglecting the needs of border residents, while officials in turn accused him of pursuing political ambitions under the guise of human rights advocacy.
When asked by reporters whether his movement would raise the issue of regaining control over Nagorno-Karabakh, Tatoyan stressed that while displaced residents have a legally recognised right to return, his movement would not base its political platform on “false expectations”.
Meanwhile, Narek Karapetyan, the coordinator of the “Our Way” movement, revealed that 5,000 volunteers had joined the movement within a month and a half, with hundreds of new members joining daily. He emphasised that the driving force behind their growing support was businessman Samvel Karapetyan, noting, “We are all confident that Samvel Karapetyan will be consistent, will preserve our honour, and will not look at the pennies for which our people have worked. With his ideas and programs, we will make Armenia a model country”.
Speaking about national challenges, Narek Karapetyan noted that the Karabakh victory had been lost and that Armenia’s national identity was under threat. He stated that national symbols were disappearing and stressed the importance of learning lessons from the 44-day war. He also addressed the detention of Samvel Karapetyan, stating that “a small group of people didn’t like his defence of the church”. According to him, Samvel Karapetyan declared from prison that “even in a prison cell, he is freer than a small group isolated from the people”. During the meeting, Aram Vardevanyan presented a message from Samvel Karapetyan, who had been in custody for over 110 days. In his address, Karapetyan stated that the “Our Way” movement had significantly influenced Armenia’s political life. “This is your achievement and the achievement of all of us, and it should become the achievement of the entire Armenian people,” he said. Expressing gratitude to the thousands who had joined, he added, “We will not retreat, we will not stop, and we will make Armenia the most prosperous and happy country. We will do it our way”.
Speaking about foreign relations, Narek Karapetyan emphasised the importance of ties with Russia, while also noting that Armenia should develop a “second line of alliance”. He stated that “broader, international alliances are acceptable for Armenia,” and criticised the ruling party for failing to build relations in any direction. Discussing regional agreements, Karapetyan urged caution regarding the “Trump route” and the trilateral statement in which the United States acted as a witness. “Our formula at this point is to understand the consequences and feasibility of the trilateral statement, and based on that, we will take further steps,” he concluded.
On October 28, police arrested the head of the Masis community, David Hambardzumyan, who recently announced opposition candidate for Prime Minister. The arrest came just days after a court sentenced him to six years and three months in prison in a long-running case dating back to the 2018 Velvet Revolution. The former mayor’s conviction — handed down by Judge Zhoba Chichoyan — relates to allegations that he and his brother used a weapon against demonstrators heading to Yerevan’s Republic Square in April 2018. Hambardzumyan has denied the charges from the outset, claiming the case was fabricated to remove him from politics. His lawyer, Tigran Atanesyan, said no witnesses ever provided incriminating testimony and that the Court ignored exculpatory evidence.
According to eyewitnesses cited by RFE/RL, plainclothes officers approached Hambardzumyan as soon as he exited the plane. “They didn’t even let him leave the airport”, one passenger said, adding that law enforcement acted with what appeared to be prior coordination. Hambardzumyan was reportedly taken directly to the penitentiary system’s detention facility. Hambardzumyan was on a working visit to Moscow. Having shaken the police officer’s hand, he said he expected to be arrested.
Sources:
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The Armenian Report, “Robert Kocharyan Announces Return to Politics, Plans to Run in 2026 Parliamentary Elections”, https://www.thearmenianreport.com/post/robert-kocharyan-announces-return-to-politics-plans-to-run-in-2026-parliamentary-elections
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OC Media, „Former human rights defender Tatoyan to challenge Pashinyan in 2026 elections”, https://oc-media.org/former-human-rights-defender-tatoyan-to-challenge-pashinyan-in-2026-elections/
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OC Media, “Opposition Prime Minister candidate arrested upon return to Armenia”, https://oc-media.org/opposition-prime-minister-candidate-arrested-upon-return-to-armenia/
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Caucasian Knot, “The head of the Masis community, David Hambardzumyan, has been arrested”, https://www.eng.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/69285
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Caucasus Watch, „Narek Karapetyan Announces Rapid Expansion Of ‘Our Way’ Movement, Emphasises National Identity, Karabakh Issue, And Samvel Karapetyan’s Leadership”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/narek-karapetyan-announces-rapid-expansion-of-our-way-movement-emphasizes-national-identity-karabakh-issue-and-samvel-karapetyans-leadership.html
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Caucasian Knot, „The head of the Masis community, David Hambardzumyan, has been arrested“, https://www.eng.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/69285
Armenia to shorten mandatory military service to 1.5 years
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on October 21 that the proposed reduction in mandatory military service for men will take effect starting January 1, instead of the summer of 2026. The Minister of Defence, Suren Papikyan, had earlier introduced legislation to Parliament to reduce the duration of mandatory military service from the current two years to 1.5 years. It was originally meant to take effect starting in the summer of 2026.
“But today I had a discussion with the Defence Minister, and previously with parliamentarians as well, and we decided that this law should take effect sooner, on January 1, 2026. This means that, starting with the winter draft, mandatory military service in Armenia will be 1.5 years instead of two years. To all our troops, thank you for your service,” Pashinyan said on Facebook.
Sources:
- Armenpress.am, “Armenia plans to shorten mandatory military service sooner than originally planned”, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1232680
Azerbaijan
Photo: Shutterstock.com
Normalisation in relations between Moscow and Baku
Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev that Russia played a role in the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet that killed at least 38 people – his first acknowledgement of Russian responsibility. Putin told Aliyev when they met on the sidelines of a summit in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, on October 9, that local Russian air defence systems had been deployed against Ukrainian drones and were to blame for the crash-landing of the flight from Baku to Russia’s Grozny in December 2024 in Kazakhstan, after it was rerouted from southern Russia.
“The two missiles that were launched did not hit the jet directly,” Putin said, adding that if they had, “it would have crashed on the spot, but they exploded, perhaps as a self-destruction measure, a few meters away.” “The Russian side will, of course, do everything possible to provide compensation and give a legal assessment of the actions of all responsible officials,” Putin said, giving no concrete details. Putin added that he had learned the cause of the crash only two days before meeting with Aliyev, stating it would “take some more time” to complete the investigation.
Putin had previously issued an apology to Aliyev last year for the “tragic incident.” Still, he wouldn’t admit fault on Russia’s side, which led to a 10-month diplomatic row between Moscow and Baku, which continued to demand compensation and accountability. Speaking to RFE/RL’s Azerbaijani Service, independent political expert Shahin Hajiyev said the level of hostility between Russia and Azerbaijan is now likely to ease. “It can be seen from Ilham Aliyev’s statements during the meeting with Putin that he is satisfied with the Russian side’s position and expects the problems in bilateral relations to be resolved,” he said, as cited by RFE/RL.
Shortly after, on October 10, Russia freed prominent Azerbaijani theatre director Mamedali Agayev. Arrested in Moscow in late August, Agayev had been accused of embezzling 20 million rubles (210,875 EUR) and was facing a potential sentence of up to 10 years in prison before his release. Agayev was released on the same day as Russian journalist Igor Kartavykh was released from police custody and placed under house arrest in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku.
Kartavykh, the bureau chief of Sputnik Azerbaijan, a branch of Russia’s state-owned news outlet Sputnik, was detained in Baku in late June on fraud charges in a high-profile case reportedly linked to the actions of Russian law enforcement authorities towards Azerbaijanis earlier in the summer.
According to top Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov, the releases of Agayev and Kartavykh were agreed upon by Russian and Azerbaijani diplomats before a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of the Russia-Central Asia summit in Tajikistan.
Sources:
- RFE/RL, “Amid Strained Relations With Baku, Putin Admits Russian Role In Azerbaijan Jet Crash”, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-azerbaijan-ukraine-putin-plane-crash/33555688.html
- FISK Oliver, Novaya Gazeta.eu, „Russia frees prominent Azerbaijani theatre director as Baku-Moscow relations warm”, https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2025/10/10/russia-frees-prominent-azerbaijani-theatre-director-as-baku-moscow-relations-warm-en-news
The “grey cardinal” Ramiz Mehdiyev charged with treason
On October 14, the Sabail District Court of Baku ruled on the criminal case involving Ramiz Mehdiyev, the former Head of the Administration of the President of Azerbaijan. According to information released by the pro-government media, the Court granted the petition against Mehdiyev, who faced charges of committing grave crimes, and imposed a preventive measure of house arrest for four months.
In a significant escalation of the allegations against Ramiz Mehdiyev, a longtime ally of former President Heydar Aliyev, Azerbaijani media have claimed that Mehdiyev planned to assassinate President Ilham Aliyev as part of a failed coup plot. Ramiz Mehdiyev served as the Head of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan from 1995 to 2019, under both President Heydar Aliyev and his son, Ilham Aliyev. He was often referred to as the “grey cardinal” due to his influential role in Azerbaijani politics. Following his tenure in the presidential administration, he served as the President of the National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan from 2019 to 2022.
Mehdiyev had notably close relations with Russia, as noted by Caucasus Watch. According to local media reports, he played a pivotal role in facilitating the establishment of Sputnik Azerbaijan, a branch of the Russian state news agency Rossiya Segodnya, in Baku. This move was allegedly made without consulting Azerbaijan’s top leadership, indicating his strong pro-Russian stance. Additionally, he held meetings with high-ranking Russian officials, including Sergey Naryshkin, the head of the Russian Presidential Administration, and Alexander Beglov, his deputy, to discuss governance and administrative practices. Mehdiyev was also awarded Russia’s Order of Honour, highlighting the depth of his connections with Moscow.
According to an article published in Eurasianet.org, the arrest of a longtime Aliyev family lieutenant on treason charges raises fresh questions about Baku’s relationship with Russia, shortly after apparent normalisation.
According to a report published by the government-funded APA news agency on October 16, Mehdiyev approached Russian contacts at some point earlier in 2025, amid the Azerbaijani-Russian chill, with a plan to oust Aliyev, replacing him with a provisional state council that Mehdiyev himself would lead. The Russian leadership was allegedly initially receptive to the plan but ultimately concluded it did not have any chance of success, the report indicated. Ultimately, Putin informed the Azerbaijani leader of the plot during their October tête-à-tête in Dushanbe, according to the article’s author.
Additionally, the official version states that Mehdiyev approached Russian contacts with the idea of the coup. But some longtime Azerbaijan watchers wonder whether it was Moscow that approached Mehdiyev first, and Russian officials later decided to betray him after determining that a coup couldn’t succeed.
Putin’s exposure of the plot to Aliyev is framed in the official account as a friendly move. However, the Kremlin leader’s gesture carried menacing undertones, suggesting that Aliyev’s regime may not be as stable as it appears, and that even the closest of allies can become a turncoat. It may well have been Putin’s way of telling Aliyev; don’t stray too far from Russia, and your regime will be protected, writes Eurasianet.org.
Sources:
- OSTILLER Nate, OC Media, “Former Azerbaijani ‘grey cardinal’ accused of plotting to kill Aliyev”, https://oc-media.org/former-azerbaijani-gray-cardinal-accused-of-plotting-to-kill-aliyev/
- Caucasus Watch, “Former High-Level Azerbaijani Official Faces Serious Charges Including Treason and Power Seizure”, https://caucasuswatch.de/news/12652
- Eurasianet.org, „Analysis: Mehdiyev arrest points to lingering Azerbaijani-Russian tension”, https://eurasianet.org/analysis-mehdiyev-arrest-points-to-lingering-azerbaijani-russian-tension
Azerbaijan ends all trade restrictions with Armenia, Aliyev says
Azerbaijan has lifted all restrictions on the trade of goods with Armenia, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced during a press conference with his Kazakh counterpart, Kassym Jomart Tokayev, in Astana on October 21. Speaking with Jomart-Tokayev, Aliyev said that a shipment of goods — an unspecified amount of Kazakh grain — had already been sent to Armenia. “I believe this is a clear indication that peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia exists not only on paper but also in practice”, Aliyev said.
The news was welcomed in Armenia, said Nazeli Baghdasaryan, the press secretary of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. “This step is important in opening regional [transit links], strengthening mutual confidence, and institutionalising peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in line with the agreements reached in Washington”, she wrote on Facebook.
Later, Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan said the wheat was being delivered from the Kazakh city of Aktau across the Caspian Sea to Baku, where it would then be transferred via Georgian Railways to Armenia. “Peace has been confirmed”, Papoyan wrote.
Later, on October 26, Alexey Overchuk, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, stated that Russian Railways (RZD) and its regional partners are working to organise the transit of Russian goods to Armenia through Azerbaijan. Speaking to reporters, Overchuk noted that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had previously announced the lifting of restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia via Azerbaijani territory.
“The Azerbaijani side confirmed to us the possibility of using Azerbaijani railways to transit Russian products through Azerbaijan to Armenia. In other words, we have made some exciting progress in this regard,” he said. Overchuk added that Russian Railways, together with its regional counterparts, was actively coordinating these shipments and that instructions had been issued to the Ministry of Agriculture to develop the new logistics route.
Sources:
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OSTILLER Nate, OC Media, “Azerbaijan ends all trade restrictions with Armenia, Aliyev says”, https://oc-media.org/azerbaijan-ends-all-trade-restrictions-with-armenia-aliyev-says/
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Caucasus Watch, “Russia to Organise Transit of Goods to Armenia Through Azerbaijan”, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/russia-to-organize-transit-of-goods-to-armenia-through-azerbaijan.html

Photo: Shutterstock.com
Development of relations between Baku and the West in October 2025
On October 16, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, received the credentials of the newly appointed Ambassador of France to Azerbaijan, Sophie Lagoutte, stating that “misunderstandings with France are now in the past”. Recalling his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Copenhagen, President Aliyev emphasised that the issues which had previously caused misunderstandings between the two countries “now belong to the past.” He noted that a new era has begun in the bilateral agenda, stressing in particular the importance of restoring and developing human, business, and cultural ties between Azerbaijan and France.
For her part, Ambassador Lagoutte stated that a new chapter has opened in relations between the two countries and pledged to make every effort to further strengthen them. During the meeting, the sides discussed the successful development of Azerbaijan–France relations in various fields, including high technology and the aerospace sector. The importance of reactivating the Intergovernmental Commission was underscored, along with the role of twin-city partnerships, reciprocal visits by business delegations, and the participation of French companies in various projects.
The tensions in the relations between Azerbaijan and France worsened after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Aliyev and other officials have frequently accused France of taking a one-sided stance in the conflict in favour of Armenia, and have taken issue with its military support of Armenia. In turn, France has accused Azerbaijan of supporting deadly riots in its overseas territory of New Caledonia in 2024.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has lifted its arms embargo on Armenia and Azerbaijan, which was introduced in 1992, according to a statement published by Minister of State for Europe and North America Stephen Doughty on October 14. In the statement, Doughty said the decision follows the progress achieved at the August 8 peace summit in Washington. He also announced that the UK government has elevated its relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan to the level of strategic partnership, covering areas such as trade, security, and defence. The new cooperation plan will include annual ministerial meetings. “Given the significant progress made in advancing peace, and the historic outcomes of the recent summit in Washington hosted by President Trump, the UK considers that the rationale underpinning the OSCE’s 1992 recommended arms embargo on ‘all deliveries of weapons and munitions to forces engaged in combat in the Nagorno-Karabakh area’ has fallen away,” Doughty said.
He said the decision aims to support both countries’ efforts to protect their sovereignty and territorial integrity, both against conventional and hybrid threats. Doughty noted that all export licenses for arms sales will nonetheless continue to be reviewed individually under strict criteria.
Sources:
- Aze.media, “Aliyev says misunderstandings with France are now in the past”, https://aze.media/aliyev-says-misunderstandings-with-france-are-now-in-the-past/
Bahruz Samadov threatens suicide after being placed in solitary confinement
Imprisoned OC Media contributor and academic Bahruz Samadov has been transferred from Umbaki prison to the N11 facility and placed in solitary confinement. His grandmother, Zibeyda Osmanova, said these new conditions have led him to again consider committing suicide.
Osmanova told OC Media that Samadov called her and said that he would only be returned to his original prison facility after a month and a half. She added that she was not allowed to meet with Samadov. Speaking to her on the phone, Samadov told his grandmother that he could not understand why he was transferred to the N11 facility and why he had been turned into a pawn. „He said that these people wished him death, and as he faced this kind of attitude, he asked them to kill him“, Osmanova said.
Samadov’s lawyer, Zibeyda Sadigova, told OC Media that he was transferred to facility N11 on October 18, after which he was placed in solitary confinement. Sadigova stated that as he was sentenced for a grave crime — high treason — he would most probably be kept in a strict regime. Osmanova told OC Media that when Samadov is again transferred to Umbaki, he will be placed in a cell without a TV or a radio.
On October 15, UN experts called on the authorities of Azerbaijan to release two researchers, Bahruz Samadov and Igbal Abilov. “We are deeply concerned that the arrests and trial of Abilov and Samadov have equated academic research, advocacy for peace and the promotion of a minority’s cultural identity with high treason,” the experts said.
Sources:
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FARHADOVA Aytan, OC Media, “Bahruz Samadov threatens suicide after being placed in solitary confinement”, https://oc-media.org/bahruz-samadov-threatens-suicide-after-being-placed-in-solitary-confinement/
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Ohchr.org, “Azerbaijan: UN experts urge release of researchers Igbal Abilov and Bahruz Samadov, charged with treason”, https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/10/azerbaijan-un-experts-urge-release-researchers-igbal-abilov-and-bahruz
Georgian Dream to ban the three largest opposition parties
Georgia’s ruling party will ask the Constitutional Court to outlaw the three largest opposition parties, which are all strongly pro-Western, a senior member of the ruling Georgian Dream party said on October 28. Shalva Papuashvili said the parties “practically continuously deny both the domestic-political and foreign-political legitimacy of the current government and the ruling political party of Georgia and, accordingly, its constitutionality.” The three parties — Coalition for Change, United National Movement, and the Strong Georgia-Lelo bloc — pose “a real threat to the constitutional order,” Papuashvili said. “Our lawsuit presents evidence that unconstitutional goals drive these political parties,” Papuashvili said.
Georgian Dream’s constitutional lawsuit does not seek to ban the fourth major opposition party, For Georgia, founded in 2021 by former Prime Minister and now opposition leader Giorgi Gakharia. This comes despite the fact that, in the past, the ruling party sometimes included Gakharia’s party among those it aimed to ban.
According to Papuashvili, Gakharia’s party avoided accusations of possible sabotage by recently ending the parliamentary boycott it had joined a year ago alongside other opposition parties. All 12 of For Georgia’s MPs entered Parliament, just a few hours before Papuashvili’s briefing, after the party stated that its boycott decision had been a mistake.
Papuasvili further added that the lawsuit will not concern the parties’ mandates in the municipal councils. Accordingly, Lelo members will retain the mandates they won in the 2025 municipal vote, which the UNM, Akhali, and several other opposition groups boycotted.
This includes Strategy Aghmashenebeli and European Georgia, which formed an alliance with the UNM ahead of the 2024 elections, as well as Girchi – More Freedom and Droa, which allied with Akhali. Papushvili stated that, at present, these parties do not have significant influence, including a realistic prospect of overcoming the electoral threshold, and therefore, “there is no necessity to ban them”. However, he issued a warning that the question of their constitutionality could be revisited later if they gain substantial influence over the political process.
Additionally, on October 16, the Georgian Dream parliament has approved, in its final reading, a legislative package that would strip individuals “associated” with parties declared unconstitutional of their passive voting rights, including the right to found or join political parties, run in elections, or hold public office. Under the amendments to Article 23 of the Law on the Constitutional Court of Georgia, which provides for the annulment of a party’s registration if its establishment or activities are declared unconstitutional by the Court, the restrictions will now extend to “individuals associated with this political party.” Such individuals will be prohibited from founding, leading, or joining a political party; serving in its executive or supervisory bodies; holding state, political, or other public office; or assuming leadership positions in constitutional bodies.
The Georgian government’s actions in question have sparked a wave of criticism in the West. The co-rapporteurs of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) for Georgia, Edite Estrela and Sabina Cudic, warned that banning opposition parties could create a one-party system incompatible with Council of Europe membership. They urged the ruling party to reconsider the lawsuit and announced plans for a fact-finding visit before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the ALDE party in its statement wrote that it is “deeply concerned and condemns the initiative of the Georgian Dream party that it will ask the Constitutional Court to ban opposition parties, including Lelo – Strong Georgia, a member of the ALDE Party”.
Sources:
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RFE/RL, “Georgian Dream Demands Ban On Three Largest Opposition Parties”, https://www.rferl.org/a/georgia-opposition-parties-papuashvili-ban-constitutional-court/33573960.html
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GVADZABIA Mikheil, OC Media, „Georgian Dream names the three major opposition parties it seeks to ban”, https://oc-media.org/georgian-dream-names-the-three-major-opposition-parties-it-seeks-to-ban/
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Civil.ge, „GD Parliament Adopts Law Extending Party Ban to Individuals”, https://civil.ge/archives/706643
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Georgia Today, „Georgian Dream Moves to Ban Major Opposition Parties, Sparking Fears of One-Party Rule”, https://georgiatoday.ge/georgian-dream-moves-to-ban-major-opposition-parties-sparking-fears-of-one-party-rule/
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Aldeparty.eu, “ALDE Party Statement on the Banning of Opposition Parties in Georgia”, https://www.aldeparty.eu/blog/news-11/alde-party-statement-on-the-banning-of-opposition-parties-in-georgia-341
The ruling party claimed victory in the local elections
On October 4, Georgian Dream secured a sweeping victory in both proportional and mayoral races across all 64 municipalities in the local elections. The elections were partially boycotted by the opposition and had only limited independent observation. CEC results showed that Georgian Dream won municipalities with a vote share of more than 70%, with its share exceeding 80% and 90% in many constituencies. GD’s mayoral candidates ran unopposed in many constituencies. Nationwide, support for the ruling party stood at 81.68%. Official turnout was recorded at 40.93%, lower than in the previous municipal elections. The capital saw the lowest participation, with only 31.08% of eligible voters casting their ballots in Tbilisi, where the official results predictably declared the incumbent Kakha Kaladze as the winner.
“This is a truly impressive victory,” Honorary Chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili said to a small group of supporters, flanked by the Georgian Dream leadership, to celebrate an anticipated victory in local elections. “This is the real result – this is what Georgia deserves, what our history deserves, what our genetics deserve,” he said, “I want to thank you, our supporters, Georgian public in general, that we are, at last, standing upright – this is the real result, what Georgia, its history, its genetics deserve.”
He stressed, “The modern way of conquest is agentura (Russian term referring to clandestine assets – ed.). With the involvement of agentura, many more states, larger and more developed than us, have lost their sovereignty.” Without naming those states, Ivanishvili said they are “being rushed towards the catastrophe by their own people, by the parts of their society.”
As Civil.ge reports, the vote took place under a repressive political and legal environment, and as the voting was still ongoing, tens of thousands gathered in downtown Tbilisi in what was possibly the largest rally since the protests began in November-December 2024 in response to the Georgian Dream’s halt to EU integration.
Amnesty International claimed in its statement that Georgia’s October 4 local elections took place “amid severe political reprisals against opposition figures and civil society, Amnesty International said. The human rights organisation has documented a sweeping campaign of repression, including politically motivated prosecutions of opposition figures, the silencing of independent media and civil society through restrictive laws and punitive measures, and the widespread arbitrary detention and ill-treatment of protesters.
“With opposition leaders jailed and civil society organisations under attack, the Georgian authorities are holding an election campaign in a context where people’s rights to freedom of expression, association and peaceful assembly are being crushed,” said Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty International’s Eastern Europe and Central Asia Deputy Director.
Sources:
- Civil.ge, “CEC Results: GD Claims Sweeping Victory in All Municipalities in Partially Boycotted Race”, https://civil.ge/archives/704962
- Civil.ge, “GD Leadership Celebrates Victory, as Tensions Flare”, https://civil.ge/archives/704698
- Amnesty International, “Georgia: Elections marred by severe reprisals and risk of further violence”, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/10/georgia-elections-marred-by-severe-reprisals-and-risk-of-further-violence/

Photo: Shutterstock.com
Gakharia for Georgia party ends boycott, enters Parliament
The Gakharia’s For Georgia party has officially ended its parliamentary boycott and decided to take up its seats in the 11th convocation of the Georgian Parliament. The announcement was made by Giorgi Sharashidze, one of the party leaders, during a briefing held earlier today.
Based on the decision, 12 replacement MPs from the party will enter Parliament, filling the seats of members whose mandates were previously terminated. “Unfortunately, this form of political protest could not stop the Dream’s destructive actions — such as suspending Georgia’s European integration process, adopting anti-democratic laws, and strengthening the autocratic regime,” he said.
He acknowledged that the boycott had effectively removed the opposition from the political arena, giving the ruling Georgian Dream party the freedom to act “without resistance” and deepen authoritarianism. Sharashidze also cited recent government actions — including the crackdown on protests, arrests of journalists, anti-European propaganda, and attacks on partner states and diplomats — as reasons for the party’s decision to return to active politics. “The disappearance of the opposition has left the people defenceless in the face of the regime. Our main goal now is to fight for the survival of dissent,” Sharashidze said. “Not using the parliamentary platform, especially in these difficult times, is not only a mistake but a crime before the country and the people.”
On October 28, eleven members of the opposition For Georgia party, led by former and exiled Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, took their seats in the Parliament. One more member, Rusudan Tevzadze, announced days earlier her decision to give up her seat and leave the party altogether, citing “extremely difficult domestic and foreign challenges” and calling it a “difficult but morally correct decision.” Several members had already quit in September after Gakharia hinted that the boycott had been a “mistake.”
“It is a welcomed development that members of the Gakharia for Georgia party are now present in the plenary session hall and have begun to exercise their parliamentary powers,” stated Shalva Papuashvili, Speaker of the Parliament of Georgia, during the parliamentary session. According to Papuashvili, although it is somewhat late, this political group has acknowledged the will of the people and recognised democracy. “Today, members of the Gakharia for Georgia party are present in the plenary hall and have started to carry out their parliamentary duties. This is an essential and positive step. It serves as a lesson, one that the Georgian Parliament has learned many times over various convocations.
Sources:
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Georgia Today, “Gakharia for Georgia party ends boycott, enters parliament”, https://georgiatoday.ge/gakharia-for-georgia-party-ends-boycott-enters-parliament/
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Civil.ge, “11 Members of Gakharia’s Party Take MP Seats in Disputed Parliament”, https://civil.ge/archives/708589
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Georgian Public Broadcaster, “Speaker welcomes Gakharia for Georgia’s return to parliament as recognition of people’s will, democracy”, https://1tv.ge/lang/en/news/speaker-welcomes-gakharia-for-georgias-return-to-parliament-as-recognition-of-peoples-will-democracy/
Russian company supplies first oil cargo to Georgia’s new Kulevi refinery
Russian oil company Rossneft supplied the first oil cargo in October to Georgia’s newly built Kulevi refinery on the Black Sea coast, Reuters reported on October 21. Citing LSEG ship-tracking data and industry sources, the agency said, “The tanker Kayseri delivered 105,340 metric tons of Siberian Light oil grade from the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossijsk to the Kulevi Oil Terminal on October 6.” “The ship and its owner company, as well as the consignor and consignee companies, are not under international sanctions (information is available in open sources),” adding that “the cargo was unloaded into a temporary storage customs warehouse to carry out subsequent customs control procedures.”
The Maritime Transport Agency of Georgia also stated that “the Panama-flagged vessel […] is not under international sanctions and does not appear on any list of companies associated with sanctioned entities.”
According to a Reuters report, the Kulevi refinery began operating in October, initially processing around 1.2 million tonnes of oil per year. The plan is to increase this figure to 4 million tonnes by 2028. Georgian Dream authorities, including PM Irakli Kobakhidze and then-Economy Minister Levan Davitashvili, inaugurated the project one year ago, describing it as “one of the most important for the country’s energy security and independence.”
Officials said at the time that, valued at up to USD 700 million, the refinery represents the largest private investment project in Georgia’s post-independence history. It is operated by Black Sea Petroleum, owned by Maka Asatiani, a Georgian business figure. The company’s board is chaired by Levan Davitashvili, the ex-Economy Minister who was removed from his ministerial post in June. Following his removal, Davitashvili was appointed as Georgian Dream Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s chief adviser on economic affairs and as Secretary of the Economic Council, a coordinating body chaired by the Prime Minister.
Sources:
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AP News, “US imposes travel bans on Georgian officials over a new law that critics say will curb media freedom”, https://apnews.com/article/us-georgia-sanctions-media-freedom-russian-law-4108e5a11cd312460a83a640490b0f5a
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OC Media, “Washington sanctions ‘dozens’ over Georgia’s foreign agent law”, https://oc-media.org/washington-sanctions-dozens-over-georgias-foreign-agent-law/
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KOKAIA Anton, RFE/RL, “EU Considering Visa Restrictions, Sanctions In Response To Georgian ‘Foreign Agent’ Law”, https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-georgia-foreign-agent-law/32994138.html
Sources:
- Civil.ge, “Russian Company Supplies First Oil Cargo to Georgia’s New Kulevi Refinery”, https://civil.ge/archives/707816


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