WEBINAR: The Threat of Transnistria – Is Annexation to Russia Pending? 

On February 29, 2024, Strategic Analysis organized the second online webinar this year with our Young Leaders‘ Programme members. The discussion focused on the current situation in Transnistria and potential attack of Russia.

In recent discussions, there has been significant speculation regarding the possibility of Transnistria seeking annexation by Russia. The rumors and statements circulating primarily revolve around the upcoming congress in Transnistria, where discussions about economic pressures and potential appeals to Russia for annexation are expected to take place.

The speculation has been fueled by a variety of factors, including:

  • Reports of increasingly aggressive rhetoric and disinformation from Russia, reminiscent of pre-invasion tactics observed in Ukraine.
  • Statements from Russian officials expressing concerns and suggesting potential actions regarding the Transnistrian issue.
  • Social media posts and international press coverage amplifying the rumors, while local Moldovan news remains relatively indifferent.

However, it’s important to note that the Moldovan authorities, press, and civil society have largely viewed these speculations in the context of ongoing economic tensions with Transnistria and Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics against the country.

While the situation remains uncertain, Moldovan experts have dismissed talk of annexation as part of Russia’s disinformation and hybrid warfare strategy. They emphasize the economic nature of the concerns and highlight the lack of logic behind any move to annex part of Moldova.

Overall, the situation underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the region and the need for careful monitoring and analysis of developments in Transnistria.