WEBINAR: Trump’s Administration in the Western Balkans

On February 25, 2025, Strategic Analysis organized the second online webinar this year with our Young Leaders‘ Programme members. The discussion focused on Trump’s Administration in the WB6.

The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States could bring significant changes to Washington’s approach to the Balkans. During his first term, the Trump administration focused on pragmatic solutions, emphasizing bilateral agreements and economic diplomacy. This was most evident in the 2020 Serbia-Kosovo agreement, which prioritized economic cooperation. If Trump were to return to the White House, a similar transactional approach could be expected, with less emphasis on traditional diplomatic mechanisms and multilateral initiatives.

While Joe Biden’s administration has prioritized democratic reforms, the rule of law, and support for Euro-Atlantic integration in the Western Balkans, Trump’s policy would likely focus more on stability through strong leadership. This could mean less pressure on governments regarding democratization and more space for pragmatic deals between regional actors. Such an approach might benefit governments that prioritize stability over deep reforms, but it could also weaken the credibility of U.S. support for democratic institutions and civil society.

A second Trump administration might also reconsider its stance on the European Union’s role in the Balkans. During his first term, Trump frequently criticized the EU for its slow and bureaucratic decision-making. If re-elected, his administration could favor solutions that align more with U.S. economic and geopolitical interests, even if that means sidelining European institutions. This could create tensions between Washington and Brussels over issues such as EU enlargement, investment projects, and relations with Serbia and Kosovo.

Another key factor will be the U.S. approach to Chinese and Russian influence in the region. During Trump’s first term, the strategy toward these powers was ambiguous—on one hand, Washington sought to limit Russian influence in energy and defense, but on the other, it often overlooked Chinese investments in infrastructure and technology. A second Trump presidency could lead to increased pressure on Balkan countries to choose between cooperation with the West and growing economic ties with the East.

Despite potential shifts in diplomatic priorities, a Trump-led U.S. would likely continue security cooperation with NATO countries in the region, particularly North Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro. The Balkans remain a potential source of instability for Europe, and while Trump’s administration may be less interested in values-based policies, its pragmatism could result in the continuation of key security initiatives. This could lead to a regional status quo that ensures stability but provides less room for democratic reforms and deeper European integration.